Pennsylvania’s 14th District House Race 2026
Pennsylvania’s 14th Congressional District, covering Fayette, Westmoreland, and surrounding southwestern counties, holds its 2026 House election on November 3. The seat is currently held by Republican Guy Reschenthaler, representing a region shaped by its industrial and coal-mining history. Control of the district will factor into the broader fight for the U.S. House majority.
Why Markets Are Watching
The 14th District leans Republican, but midterm elections often bring shifts in turnout and voter sentiment that can narrow margins in traditionally safe seats. The outcome will reflect how southwestern Pennsylvania voters respond to national political dynamics heading into 2026. Results here also contribute to the overall partisan balance of the House.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is binary: will the Republican or Democratic candidate win the district. Traders are effectively weighing the district’s partisan lean against potential midterm volatility and candidate-specific factors. This framing isolates the final outcome itself, separate from broader national House control questions.
Related terms
Total Volume
$24.6k
Kalshi $3k · Polymarket $21.6k
Leading Market
Guy Reschenthaler
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 97%
Guy Reschenthaler Volume
$10.1k
Kalshi $736.60 · Polymarket $9.4k
Guy Reschenthaler 24h Change
+3.00%
Kalshi +3.00% · Polymarket -2.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guy ReschenthalerRepublican Party | 95.7¢ | 7.0% | , trade Guy Reschenthaler on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 97.0¢ | 5% | , trade Guy Reschenthaler on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Alan BradstockDemocratic Party | 4.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade Alan Bradstock on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Alan Bradstock on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guy ReschenthalerRepublican Party | $10,140.74 | ||
| Alan BradstockDemocratic Party | $14,472.84 |