Pennsylvania’s 13th District House Race 2026
Pennsylvania’s 13th Congressional District, covering parts of south-central Pennsylvania including Adams, Franklin, and York counties, holds its next House election in November 2026. The seat is currently held by Republican Representative John Joyce. The district leans conservative, but midterm dynamics and candidate recruitment could shape how competitive the race becomes.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on dozens of races like this one, where incumbency and local political trends intersect with national midterm sentiment. A loss in a traditionally safe seat would signal broader shifts in voter mood heading into 2026. Results here will feed into assessments of which party holds momentum nationally.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a sprawling congressional contest to a single binary: which party’s nominee wins. That framing isolates partisan control from the noise of candidate biographies or local issues, letting traders focus purely on outcome probability. It also serves as a proxy for broader expectations about how competitive down-ballot Republican-held districts will be in a midterm cycle.
Related terms
Total Volume
$26.1k
Kalshi $2.2k · Polymarket $23.9k
Leading Market
John Joyce
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 98%
John Joyce Volume
$1.6k
Kalshi $636.89 · Polymarket $924.05
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John JoyceRepublican Party | 98.4¢ | 7.0% | , trade John Joyce on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 98.0¢ | 5% | , trade John Joyce on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Beth FarnhamDemocratic Party | 4.5¢ | 7.0% | , trade Beth Farnham on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Beth Farnham on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| John JoyceRepublican Party | $1,560.94 | ||
| Beth FarnhamDemocratic Party | $24,494.35 |