Ohio’s 11th Congressional District House Race 2026
Ohio’s 11th Congressional District, anchored in Cleveland and Cuyahoga County, heads to the polls in 2026 to choose its U.S. House representative. The seat has long been one of the most reliably Democratic districts in Ohio, encompassing a diverse urban and inner-suburban electorate. Candidates from both major parties, along with any third-party or independent contenders, will compete for the seat in the midterm cycle.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on the cumulative outcome of races like this one, even in districts considered safe for one party. A strong Democratic district such as OH-11 factors into broader turnout and momentum narratives heading into the 2026 midterms. Local results also shape how analysts read voter enthusiasm in urban Ohio ahead of statewide contests.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders face is which party captures the seat, with separate contracts isolating individual named candidates as well as broader party outcomes. Because the district leans heavily toward one party historically, the market effectively tests whether that historical pattern holds or whether an upset emerges. Separate contracts for specific candidates let traders express views on primary outcomes ahead of the general election.
Total Volume
$85.4k
Kalshi $2.4k · Polymarket $83k
Leading Market
Shontel Brown
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 99%
Shontel Brown Volume
$41.9k
Kalshi $117.73 · Polymarket $41.8k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shontel BrownDemocratic Party | 99.7¢ | 7.0% | , trade Shontel Brown on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Shontel Brown on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Mike KircherRepublican Party | 1.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade Mike Kircher on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 2.0¢ | 5% | , trade Mike Kircher on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shontel BrownDemocratic Party | $41,908.55 | ||
| Mike KircherRepublican Party | $43,482.74 |