New Jersey’s 10th District House Race 2026
New Jersey’s 10th Congressional District will choose its U.S. House representative in the November 2026 midterms. The seat, anchored in Newark and surrounding Essex and Union County communities, has long been a reliable Democratic stronghold in a densely populated, racially diverse urban-suburban mix. The 2026 contest will determine who represents the district for the next two-year term starting in January 2027.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House of Representatives often comes down to dozens of competitive districts, and even safe seats attract attention amid broader shifts in voter sentiment. A decisive outcome here could signal how urban Democratic coalitions are holding up nationally. Local economic conditions, turnout patterns, and candidate strength will shape the result.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate general election to a binary question: will the Democratic or Republican nominee win NJ-10? This isolates partisan control of the seat from the noise of primary fields, fundraising totals, and polling methodology. Traders are effectively weighing historical district performance against any signs of a competitive shift, distilling months of campaign developments into a single tradeable outcome.
Related terms
Total Volume
$119.6k
Kalshi $1.6k · Polymarket $118k
Leading Market
LaMonica McIver
Kalshi 100% · Polymarket 99%
LaMonica McIver Volume
$79.5k
Kalshi $59.00 · Polymarket $79.4k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMonica McIverDemocratic Party | 99.4¢ | 7.0% | , trade LaMonica McIver on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade LaMonica McIver on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Carmen Bucher WirthRepublican Party | 2.8¢ | 7.0% | , trade Carmen Bucher Wirth on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 3.0¢ | 5% | , trade Carmen Bucher Wirth on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| LaMonica McIverDemocratic Party | $79,459.06 | ||
| Carmen Bucher WirthRepublican Party | $40,173.12 |