North Carolina’s 13th District House Race
North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District is holding an election for its U.S. House seat in 2026. The district has shifted in recent redistricting cycles, drawing competing candidates from both major parties alongside possible third-party or independent contenders. The outcome will determine who represents the district in the next Congress.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often comes down to a handful of competitive districts, and North Carolina’s maps have made this seat a recurring battleground. The result will shape the partisan balance in Washington and influence legislative priorities for the next two years. Redistricting history adds extra scrutiny to how the district votes this cycle.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is binary: which party’s nominee wins the seat, with separate contracts also allowing for a specific candidate or an unexpected third-party victory. Traders are effectively weighing district-level partisan lean against candidate strength and turnout patterns unique to a midterm cycle. This reduces a complex campaign down to a single tradeable outcome.
Related terms
Total Volume
$573.5k
Kalshi $272.5k · Polymarket $301k
Leading Market
Brad Knott
Kalshi 69% · Polymarket 67%
Brad Knott Volume
$281.7k
Kalshi $135.8k · Polymarket $145.9k
Brad Knott 24h Change
-5.00%
Kalshi -5.00% · Polymarket +3.00%
Latest Coverage
Insights
Related Events
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad KnottRepublican Party | 69.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
67.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Paul BarringerDemocratic Party | 33.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
33.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
North Carolina congressional candidate’s residency questioned ahead of election
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Property records show Democratic candidate LaKesha Womack, who is challenging Republican Rep. Tim Moore in North Carolina's 14th Congressional District, purchased a home in neighboring District 12 this summer while her official voting address — located in District 14 — appears on Zillow as a rental listing. Womack initially agreed to discuss the matter but later canceled the interview and has not responded to further requests for comment.
The Constitution does not require House members to live in the districts they represent, only that they reside in the state, be at least 25 years old, and have held U.S. citizenship for seven years. Still, a WBTV review found two of North Carolina's 14 House members registered to vote outside their districts: Womack and Republican Rep. Brad Knott, whose Raleigh voting address falls in District 2 rather than his District 13. A third representative, Democrat Don Davis, was redrawn out of his old district in last year's redistricting and is now running in a seat reconfigured to favor Republicans.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic candidate's residency is questioned and she avoided answering, reflecting negatively on a party-affiliated figure.
- Republican Party (United States) A Republican representative is also noted to vote outside his district, a mild negative for the party.
- Tim Moore (North Carolina politician) Tim Moore is mentioned mainly as the incumbent being challenged, without direct criticism or praise.
- United States House of Representatives The institution is mentioned factually as the body members serve in, without direct reputational framing.
- North Carolina North Carolina is the setting for the story, mentioned factually without reputational implication.
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Elections
North Carolina early voting begins ahead of pivotal midterm elections
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Early voting opens Oct. 15 and runs through Oct. 31 in North Carolina, a key battleground in the 2025 midterms. The marquee race is the open U.S. Senate seat left by retiring Republican Thom Tillis, pitting Democrat and former Gov. Roy Cooper against Republican Michael Whatley, the Trump-backed former RNC chair, with Green and Libertarian candidates also on the ballot. Democrats are targeting the seat as part of a broader push to flip the four seats needed for Senate control.
The ballot also includes competitive U.S. House races, including Charlotte-area districts held by Reps. Alma Adams, Tim Moore and Mark Harris, plus down-ballot contests for the N.C. Supreme Court, Court of Appeals, state legislature, and Mecklenburg County offices. Voters will also weigh in on constitutional amendments covering voter ID, income tax caps and property tax limits, along with Charlotte bond measures for transportation, housing and neighborhood improvements. Election Day is Nov. 3, with North Carolina's results seen as a bellwether for national party control in Washington.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Roy Cooper Cooper is portrayed neutrally to positively as a former governor running for a prominent Senate seat.
- North Carolina North Carolina is portrayed as a significant, closely-watched battleground state, a notable civic role.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are mentioned as competitive and targeting Senate control, a neutral factual framing.
- Alma Adams Alma Adams is mentioned as holding a competitive Charlotte-area House district, a neutral factual note.
- Charlotte, North Carolina Charlotte is referenced regarding House districts and bond measures, factual and neutral.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned neutrally as backing Whatley's candidacy.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are mentioned neutrally as holding the retiring Senate seat and contesting races.
- Tim Moore (North Carolina politician) Tim Moore is mentioned factually as holding a competitive House district.
- United States House of Representatives The U.S. House is referenced regarding competitive races without evaluative framing.
- United States Senate The open U.S. Senate seat race is the central factual subject of the article.
- Washington (state) Washington is referenced as the seat of national party control that the election outcome may affect.
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Elections
Felony Warrant Surfaces Against NC-14 Democratic Candidate Womack
PN Team • 1 day ago
LaKesha Womack, the Democratic candidate challenging Republican Rep. Tim Moore in North Carolina's 14th Congressional District, was served a felony warrant on Oct. 11 by the Polk County Sheriff's Office. The warrant, originally issued in January 2020 but not served until this year, charges Womack with failing to return a rented 2019 Toyota Corolla valued at $20,000. Womack's campaign did not directly address the allegation but criticized the timing and framing as politically motivated, noting her court date falls after Election Day. The district covers Gastonia, Shelby, Morgantown, and parts of south Charlotte.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Polk County, Florida Sheriff's office served a felony warrant tied to the alleged crime, associating it with the case.0
- Democratic Party (United States) Party affiliation of a candidate facing a felony warrant, context rather than direct criticism of the party.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned only as the opposing party of the incumbent, no direct characterization.
- Tim Moore (North Carolina politician) Named as the Republican incumbent being challenged, no further characterization given.
- Charlotte, North Carolina Mentioned only as part of the district's geographic coverage.
- North Carolina State context for the congressional district and legal proceedings, purely factual.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced only as the body the congressional seat belongs to, purely factual.
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Elections
Trump Rallies for Whatley in North Carolina as Republicans Brace for Tough Midterms
PN Team • 1 week ago
President Trump campaigned in Greenville, North Carolina, urging voters to back Senate candidate Michael Whatley, who trails former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper by a wide margin in polling for the seat of retiring Senator Thom Tillis. The race could help determine Senate control after the November 3 midterms. National Republican groups, including the Senate Leadership Fund, have pulled spending from the contest, and early voting data show Democrats casting ballots at twice the rate of Republicans in the state. Trump's approval rating has fallen to 31%, with 68% of Americans disapproving of his economic handling amid rising gas prices. Competitive House races in the state have also drawn tens of millions in outside spending.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is portrayed with falling approval ratings and disapproval over economic handling, reflecting negative reputational impact.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are depicted as struggling with low spending commitment, lagging turnout, and a weak Senate candidate.
- Roy Cooper Cooper is shown leading by a wide margin in polling, a favorable portrayal.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are shown with stronger polling and early voting turnout, suggesting favorable political momentum.
- Greenville, North Carolina Greenville is mentioned as the location of the campaign rally without reputational connotation.
- North Carolina North Carolina is the setting of the competitive race, described factually.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned factually regarding competitive House races and outside spending without clear positive or negative framing.
- United States Senate Referenced neutrally as the chamber whose control is at stake in the election.
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Elections
NRCC Ad on North Carolina Candidate’s Farm Festival Sparks Dispute
PN Team • 3 days ago
An NRCC ad targeting Jamie Ager, the Democratic candidate in North Carolina's 11th District, highlights a past "kid-friendly" farm festival where drag performers from the Beer City Sisters, including figures using names like "Sister Domina Trix," appeared. Ager's Hickory Nut Gap Farm had publicly thanked the group for attending the 2019 event before later locking the related Facebook post.
Performers and LGBTQ advocates, including Blue Ridge Pride, disputed the ad, with some performers claiming parts of the footage were AI-generated and issuing cease-and-desist demands. The NRCC stands by the ad. The dispute has become a flashpoint in the closely watched race days before the election.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidate's farm festival is targeted by an opposing ad, a tangential partisan reference.
- North Carolina North Carolina is the factual setting of the disputed race and ad controversy.
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Education
Two candidates vie for Madison County school board chair in North Carolina
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Republican John Bratz and Democrat Craig Goforth are running for Madison County, North Carolina's school board chair ahead of the Nov. 3 general election, with early voting beginning Oct. 15. Both candidates, in interviews with The News-Record, cited student safety, teacher support and funding as top priorities, along with facility maintenance and responsible financial planning.
Bratz, a current District 2 board member with a maintenance and engineering background, emphasized bus safety, competitive teacher compensation and preventative facility upkeep. Goforth, who has 18 years of prior school board experience and helped bring programs like ROTC and school resource officers to the county, focused on securing additional funding streams, managing growth from nearby Weaverville, and addressing food insecurity among students. Both candidates said transparency between the school board and community is essential, echoing the new superintendent's stated goal of improving communication with parents. The race also touches on statewide debates over private school voucher expansion and public school funding pressures affecting North Carolina districts.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) A Democratic candidate is mentioned running a balanced, policy-focused campaign.
- North Carolina North Carolina is the setting for the race and broader school funding debates, mentioned neutrally.
- Republican Party (United States) A Republican candidate is mentioned running a balanced, policy-focused campaign.
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Elections
North Carolina Senate race intensifies ahead of Trump rally as energy costs, tariffs dominate debate
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Ahead of President Trump's rally in Greenville, North Carolina, both parties are mobilizing in Buncombe County over the midterm Senate race between Republican Michael Whatley and Democrat Roy Cooper. Rising electricity prices — up about 13% statewide year-over-year, per federal data — and tariff-driven agricultural costs are central issues. Whatley backs expanding domestic energy production and trade policies to aid farmers and manufacturers; Cooper wants data centers to cover their own power costs and calls for ending tariffs he says are raising farm and food prices. Local Democrats are canvassing door-to-door while Republicans train poll observers, reflecting broader organizing efforts before the midterms.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's rally is the backdrop for the story, a neutral factual mention without strong characterization.
- Roy Cooper Cooper is portrayed as advocating for consumer-friendly energy and anti-tariff positions, a mildly favorable policy framing.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are mentioned as mobilizing and canvassing, a neutral organizational detail.
- North Carolina Republican Party North Carolina Republicans are mentioned training poll observers, a neutral organizing activity.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican Party is mentioned mobilizing and associated with Whatley's energy and trade policy positions.
- North Carolina North Carolina is the setting for the race and economic issues, described factually.
- United States United States is referenced via federal data on electricity prices, a neutral factual mention.
- United States Senate The U.S. Senate race is the central context but the institution itself is not characterized positively or negatively.
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Elections
Cooper’s Affordability Message Gives Democrats a Lead in North Carolina Senate Race
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Former Governor Roy Cooper holds a double-digit lead over Republican Michael Whatley in North Carolina's US Senate race, built on a message focused on affordability and healthcare costs. Cooper, who spent six years securing Medicaid expansion from a GOP-controlled legislature, is campaigning against Trump-backed healthcare cuts and the rollback of Obamacare subsidies, which he blames for rising premiums. Republican super PACs have pulled TV ad spending from the state to shore up other races, and Trump plans to rally for Whatley, a political newcomer and former RNC chair. With Republicans holding a narrow Senate majority, Democrats need the North Carolina seat as part of a broader path to control the chamber, and strategists see Cooper's approach as a potential model for other moderate Democrats.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Roy Cooper Cooper is portrayed favorably as leading in polls with a strong affordability message and healthcare record.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are positioned favorably with a lead and a model strategy in a key Senate race.
- Donald Trump Trump's healthcare cuts are blamed for rising premiums, and his backing of Whatley is tied to a struggling campaign.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are shown pulling ad spending and facing a tough race tied to unpopular healthcare cuts.
- North Carolina North Carolina is the factual setting of the Senate race without independent reputational framing.
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned factually as the chamber where control is being contested.
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Elections
Cooper Campaigns in Greensboro Ahead of North Carolina Senate Election
PN Team • 6 days ago
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper, North Carolina's former governor, held a campaign stop at Barber Park in Greensboro, drawing about 50 attendees including students from UNC Greensboro and North Carolina A&T State University. Guilford County Sheriff Danny H. Rogers welcomed Cooper to the event.
The stop came as early voting continues in North Carolina's Senate race, with 10 days remaining until the Nov. 3 election. Cooper faces Republican Michael Whatley and used the visit to promote his "Make Stuff Cost Less" platform, focused on lowering grocery, energy, and housing costs and expanding access to health care and childcare.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Roy Cooper Portrayed positively as an active candidate promoting a cost-of-living platform with local support.
- Democratic Party (United States) Cooper identified as the Democratic Senate candidate in a factual campaign report.
- Greensboro, North Carolina Setting of the campaign event, mentioned factually.
- North Carolina Context for the statewide Senate election, factual mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Referenced via Cooper's Republican opponent in a balanced election report.
- United States Senate Contextual reference to the Senate race Cooper is campaigning for.
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Elections
North Carolina voters to decide three constitutional amendments in November
PN Team • 1 month ago
North Carolina's Nov. 3 general election ballot includes three constitutional amendments placed there by the Republican-controlled General Assembly. The first would extend the existing photo ID requirement to mail-in voters, who currently may instead submit a driver's license or partial Social Security number; voters already approved in-person photo ID in 2018, and mail-in fraud remains rare. The second would lower the state's constitutional income tax rate cap from 7% to 3.5%, requiring voter approval for any future increase above that level. Supporters, including sponsor Sen. Michael V. Lee, call it a taxpayer safeguard, while Gov. Josh Stein and other Democrats argue it mainly shields wealthy earners and would shift future budget pressure onto ordinary residents. The third amendment would require state lawmakers to set limits on local property tax increases; critics say it does little to address housing affordability. Each needs a simple majority to pass. Twenty-eight counties, including Mecklenburg, will also have local referendums, and voter registration closes Oct. 9.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats, including Gov. Stein, are portrayed as critics of the tax amendment, arguing it favors wealthy earners, a mildly critical but factual framing.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican-controlled General Assembly placed the amendments on the ballot, a neutral-to-slightly-critical factual mention.
- Josh Stein Gov. Josh Stein is mentioned neutrally as raising concerns about the tax amendment's fairness.
- North Carolina North Carolina is the setting for a factual description of upcoming ballot measures without reputational spin.
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