Minnesota Senate Election: Total Voter Turnout
Minnesota voters head to the polls on November 3, 2026, to fill a U.S. Senate seat in a midterm election cycle. Turnout questions ask how many total votes will be cast statewide, a figure shaped by candidate competitiveness, statewide ballot measures, and national midterm enthusiasm. Minnesota has historically ranked among the highest-turnout states in the country.
Why Markets Are Watching
Turnout levels shape campaign strategy, resource allocation, and the credibility of pre-election polling. High participation can signal intense voter engagement tied to control of the Senate, while lower turnout may reflect a less competitive race or broader voter fatigue. Minnesota’s turnout patterns are often cited as a bellwether for civic participation nationally.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Turnout
These contracts reduce a complex electoral outcome to a single measurable threshold: whether total votes cast clear specific numeric benchmarks. Traders are effectively weighing historical Minnesota turnout trends against 2026-specific factors like race competitiveness and concurrent ballot items. The structure isolates volume as a standalone variable, separate from who wins the seat itself.
Related terms
Total Volume
$17.9k
Kalshi $7.7k · Polymarket $10.1k
Leading Market
Above 2.15M
Polymarket 99%
Above 2.15M Volume
$39.12
Polymarket $39.12
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.15M | — | — | — | 98.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Above 2.20M | 95.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
— | — | — |
| Above 2.40M | 92.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
— | — | — |
| Above 2.45M | — | — | — | 86.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Above 2.75M | — | — | — | 98.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Minnesota’s Senate and Governor Primaries Set to Reshape 2026 Ballot
PN Team • 2 months ago
Minnesota voters went to the polls August 11 in Democratic primaries pitting moderate Rep. Angie Craig against progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for the open Senate seat left by retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Flanagan drew backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Ilhan Omar and Smith herself, while Craig secured establishment support from Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Pete Buttigieg and Gwen Walz, and roughly doubled Flanagan's fundraising. The race centered on Craig's contested vote for the Laken Riley Act, which she has since disavowed, immigration enforcement after federal agents killed two protesters during "Operation Metro Surge," and clashing views on Israel and AIPAC funding. On the Republican side, Michele Tafoya leads a fundraising-heavy field including party-endorsed Adam Schwarze and Royce White, while Amy Klobuchar faces minimal opposition for governor against Republicans Mike Lindell (Trump-endorsed), Lisa Demuth and Kendall Qualls, as the GOP seeks its first statewide win since 2006.
Craig's departure also triggered a six-way Democratic primary for her open 2nd Congressional District seat. The results will help determine whether Democrats lean moderate or progressive heading into the midterms and test Republican hopes of ending their statewide losing streak. Prediction markets, which favored Flanagan and Craig-adjacent dynamics entering Election Day, are watching outcomes as an early signal for the broader 2026 fight over Congress and Minnesota's state government.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Law enforcement Federal agents (law enforcement) killed two protesters during an immigration operation, a clearly negative portrayal.
- Amy Klobuchar Klobuchar is portrayed favorably as facing minimal opposition in her gubernatorial primary, indicating strong political standing.
- Peggy Flanagan Flanagan is portrayed favorably with strong progressive endorsements, positioning her as a competitive candidate.
- Bernie Sanders Sanders is mentioned as backing Flanagan, a neutral-to-mildly favorable association.
- Donald Trump Trump is noted for endorsing Lindell, a tangential mention with slight negative connotation given Lindell's controversial reputation.
- Elizabeth Warren Warren is mentioned as backing Flanagan, a neutral-to-mildly favorable association.
- Hakeem Jeffries Jeffries is mentioned as backing Craig, a neutral-to-mildly favorable association.
- Ilhan Omar Omar is mentioned as backing Flanagan, a neutral-to-mildly favorable association.
- Pete Buttigieg Buttigieg is mentioned as backing Craig, a neutral-to-mildly favorable association.
- Republican Party of Minnesota The state GOP is noted as seeking its first statewide win since 2006, implying a losing streak.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party's primary contests are the central subject, described neutrally as a factual electoral process.
- Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party The Minnesota DFL primary contest is the central subject of the article, described neutrally.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican side is discussed factually regarding candidates and the party's electoral drought.
- Israel Israel is mentioned as a point of political contention regarding AIPAC funding, a neutral factual reference.
- Lisa Demuth Demuth is listed as a gubernatorial candidate without further characterization.
- Minnesota Minnesota is the central location of the article's electoral coverage, described neutrally.
- State governments of the United States State government references are tangential and neutral, related to the governor's race outcome.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned as the broader context for the midterm elections without specific characterization.
- United States House of Representatives The House is referenced regarding Craig's open 2nd District seat, a neutral factual mention.
- United States Senate The Senate seat race is the central neutral subject of the article.
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Elections
Minnesota Officials Defend Election Security Ahead of November Vote
PN Team • 5 days ago
A Twin Cities opinion piece by local election official Ken Peterson defends Minnesota's voting system amid DOJ threats to deploy election-day monitors. Peterson notes bipartisan agreement between state GOP and DFL chairs that the system, run by over 30,000 local poll workers, is secure. A federal judge recently blocked DOJ efforts to obtain state voter rolls for DHS review. Minnesota uses paper ballots, certified equipment, and the Statewide Registration System to prevent double voting. Cited fraud cases remain rare: a St. Thomas Law School study found only three noncitizen voting convictions among 13.4 million ballots cast from 2014–2024. Minnesota led the nation in 2024 voter turnout and election administration rankings.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Minnesota Minnesota's election system praised as secure, well-run, and a national leader in turnout and administration.
- Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party DFL chair cited in bipartisan agreement supporting the security of Minnesota's election system.
- Republican Party (United States) State GOP chair cited in bipartisan agreement affirming election system's security.
- Democratic Party (United States) Cited alongside DFL and GOP in bipartisan agreement affirming election security.
- Saint Paul, Minnesota Referenced as the location of the Twin Cities opinion piece defending the state's election system.
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Elections
Minnesota’s 2025 Political Shakeup Continues Ahead of Election Day
PN Team • 4 days ago
Minnesota's political landscape has shifted repeatedly since the year began, and more change could follow Election Day. Gov. Tim Walz exited his reelection bid early, prompting Sen. Amy Klobuchar to pivot toward a run for governor. Michele Tafoya and later Mike Lindell and Kendall Qualls jockeyed for the Republican Senate nomination, but primary voters chose Lisa Demuth. On the DFL side, Peggy Flanagan beat Angie Craig despite Craig's fundraising lead. Chris Madel dropped his gubernatorial bid over the party's immigration stance. Observers compare the turmoil to 2018's reshuffling after Mark Dayton's exit, when multiple officials moved up the ladder in sequence.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Amy Klobuchar Portrayed as strategically pivoting to a gubernatorial run after Walz's exit, a proactive move.
- Tim Walz Described as exiting his reelection bid early, prompting the broader political shakeup.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned factually as the party whose Senate nomination was contested among several candidates.
- Minnesota Setting for factual coverage of ongoing political turnover without clear praise or blame.
- United States Senate Referenced neutrally as the office candidates are seeking.
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Education
Minnesota Permanent School Fund Amendment
PN Team • 2 days ago
Minnesota voters are deciding a constitutional amendment on Election Day that would raise the share of the state's Permanent School Fund that schools can access each year from 2.5% to 4.5%, adding roughly $103 million annually without raising taxes. The fund, a land trust dating to 1858, now holds more than $2.3 billion and has quadrupled since 2010.
Because Minnesota requires constitutional amendments to win a majority of all ballots cast, not just votes on that question, leaving it blank counts as a no vote. Supporters, including Moorhead Area Public Schools officials, say the change would funnel unused trust earnings directly to districts statewide.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Minnesota Factual description of a state ballot measure aimed at boosting school funding without raising taxes.
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Elections
Klobuchar holds double-digit lead over Demuth in Minnesota governor’s race poll
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
A new Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll shows U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar with a commanding lead over Republican Lisa Demuth in the race for Minnesota governor, three weeks before Election Day. Half of likely voters said they would back Klobuchar, who is seeking to become the state's first female governor, compared with 41% for Demuth, the speaker of the Minnesota House.
Klobuchar led in the Twin Cities and suburbs and remained competitive in parts of greater Minnesota, trailing Demuth by only five points in the increasingly conservative north while Demuth held a stronger edge in the south. Demuth has sought to tie Klobuchar to a fraud scandal in state government under DFL Gov. Tim Walz, and fraud ranked as the second-most important issue to voters polled. However, slightly more respondents trusted Klobuchar than Demuth to address it, suggesting the scandal has not given Republicans a clear advantage as they try to win the governor's office for the first time since 2006.
Public safety has also emerged as a key campaign theme, with both candidates rolling out crime plans. The Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association, which has previously backed both Demuth and Klobuchar, has declined to endorse in the governor's race even as it formally backed GOP Senate nominee Michele Tafoya, underscoring the issue's political weight without clearly tipping the scales in either direction.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Amy Klobuchar Klobuchar is portrayed as leading comfortably in the polls and trusted more on a key issue, a favorable depiction.
- Tim Walz Walz's administration is directly linked to a fraud scandal used against his party's candidate.
- Lisa Demuth Demuth is shown trailing in the polls and her scandal-based attack strategy hasn't clearly paid off.
- Michele Tafoya Tafoya is noted as receiving a formal police union endorsement, a favorable mention.
- State governments of the United States State government is tied to the fraud scandal mentioned as a key campaign issue.
- Minneapolis–Saint Paul Mentioned as a region where Klobuchar leads, a neutral geographic detail.
- Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party Referenced via the DFL fraud scandal tied to Walz's administration, a mildly negative association.
- United States Senate Mentioned as Klobuchar's current office, a neutral factual reference.
- Minnesota Minnesota is the setting of the gubernatorial race, a neutral contextual reference.
- Republican Party (United States) Referenced as Demuth's and Tafoya's party in a competitive race, a neutral factual mention.
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Elections
Minnesota appeals court to weigh St. Paul ‘Right to Repair’ ballot fight after voting begins
PN Team • 2 months ago
St. Paul's legal battle over a "Right to Repair" ballot question will not be resolved until after early voting is already underway. The Minnesota Court of Appeals has scheduled oral arguments for Oct. 6, 7, or 12, with legal briefs due between Aug. 28 and Sept. 16, while absentee voting starts Sept. 18. Election Day is Nov. 3.
The question, backed by the Safe Homes St. Paul coalition, would let tenants deduct up to $500 or half a month's rent to cover overdue repairs after notifying landlords. The St. Paul City Council voted 5-2 to block the measure from reaching the ballot despite sufficient petition signatures, prompting a lawsuit that Safe Homes St. Paul won in Ramsey County District Court. The city's emergency appeal to the Minnesota Supreme Court failed, with justices directing the dispute to normal appellate channels. The Secretary of State's office has already added the question to sample ballots, meaning voters may cast ballots on the issue before the courts settle whether it will ultimately count.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Saint Paul, Minnesota St. Paul's city council is portrayed as blocking a ballot measure despite sufficient signatures, casting the city government in a somewhat negative light amid a legal dispute.
- Minnesota Minnesota is mentioned mainly as the jurisdiction for the appeals court and Secretary of State process, a neutral factual reference.
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Elections
Flanagan holds narrow lead over Tafoya in Minnesota Senate race poll
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
A new Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll shows DFL Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan with a modest lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in the race for Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat, one of the few Republicans hope to flip this cycle despite a difficult national environment for the GOP.
Flanagan's edge is driven largely by lopsided margins in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, reflecting broader dissatisfaction among Minnesota voters with President Donald Trump. Some voters, including independents critical of both parties, cited opposition to Trump's policies, including the administration's actions regarding Iran, as a reason for backing Flanagan.
Despite the deficit, the poll results support Tafoya's contention that she is running competitively in a traditionally Democratic-leaning state, bucking broader national trends that favor Democrats this cycle. Minnesota hasn't elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 2002, and Democrats appear more enthusiastic heading into the election even as national Republicans focus resources on defending seats in more conservative states.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is associated with voter dissatisfaction and opposition driving support away from the GOP candidate.
- Peggy Flanagan Flanagan is shown holding a lead with strong county margins and voter enthusiasm.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are portrayed as facing a difficult national environment and trailing in a key race.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are shown with a lead and higher enthusiasm in the race, a modestly favorable portrayal.
- Michele Tafoya Tafoya trails in the poll though the piece notes she claims competitiveness.
- Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party Flanagan's party affiliation benefits from her poll lead and voter enthusiasm.
- Independent politician Independent voters are mentioned neutrally as a swing group critical of both parties.
- Minnesota Minnesota is the setting of the race, described factually without reputational spin.
- United States Senate The U.S. Senate is mentioned factually as the office being contested.
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Elections
Minnesota Secretary of State Candidates Clash on Voter Rules and State Symbols
PN Team • 38 minutes ago
DFL incumbent Steve Simon, seeking a fourth term as Minnesota secretary of state, debated Republican challenger Tad Jude at Minnesota Public Radio's St. Paul studio. Jude called for tighter voter requirements, including provisional ballots for same-day registrants, saying "an illegal vote is a stolen vote." Simon cited studies ranking Minnesota first nationally on election performance and showing only three illegal votes among 13.4 million cast from 2015 to 2024. Simon pressed Jude on Trump's unsubstantiated claims of winning Minnesota; Jude acknowledged certified results but stopped short of refuting Trump. Both addressed a DOJ lawsuit over Alaska's Senate certification and debated the state's redesigned flag. Election Day is November 3.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Depicted as making unsubstantiated election claims that Jude declined to fully refute.
- Minnesota Highlighted as having top-ranked election performance nationally.
- Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party Simon's party affiliation is noted factually without added praise or criticism.
- Alaska Mentioned only in connection with a DOJ lawsuit over Senate certification, tangential to the main debate.
- United States Senate Referenced only in connection with a certification lawsuit, incidental to the piece.
- Republican Party (United States) Jude's party is noted factually amid a balanced debate recap.
- Saint Paul, Minnesota Named only as the debate's location, a factual detail.
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Elections
Peggy Flanagan Highlights Ojibwe Name in Minnesota Senate Campaign
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Minnesota, shared the meaning of her Ojibwe name in a social media post, framing it as a statement of political identity. Flanagan, a member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe, said her name, "Gizhiiwewidamookwe," translates to "Speaks in a Loud and Clear Voice Woman," adding that she intends to be "Minnesota's voice in the U.S. Senate" rather than President Donald Trump's.
Flanagan, who has twice been elected as Gov. Tim Walz's running mate, is facing Republican candidate Michele Tafoya in the race. The post drew mixed reactions online, with some critics mocking the translation and others accusing her of political posturing. The exchange follows earlier scrutiny of Flanagan after video surfaced of her wearing a hijab while addressing Somali migrant constituents, amid broader controversy in Minnesota over fraud involving welfare funds tied to Somali community programs.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Peggy Flanagan The post frames her name reveal as drawing mockery and accusations of political posturing, alongside unresolved controversy over hijab-wearing amid a welfare fraud scandal.
- Donald Trump Referenced only as a contrast point in Flanagan's statement about whose voice she represents.
- Minnesota Referenced as the setting for the Senate race and the welfare fraud controversy, giving it a mildly negative association.
- Tim Walz Mentioned only as the running mate she has twice been elected alongside, a neutral factual detail.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as Flanagan's party affiliation without further commentary.
- Republican Party (United States) Referenced as the party of her opponent Michele Tafoya in a factual context.
- United States Senate Mentioned as the office being contested, purely factual.
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Elections
Flanagan, Tafoya face off in Minnesota U.S. Senate debate
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Minnesota U.S. Senate candidates Peggy Flanagan and Michele Tafoya debated in St. Paul on MPR News, as the two vie for outgoing Democratic Sen. Tina Smith's seat. Flanagan, a Democrat, currently serves as Minnesota's lieutenant governor. Tafoya, a Republican, is a former sports broadcaster who has also hosted a political podcast. The debate marks a notable moment in the race to succeed Smith, drawing attention from statewide media as both candidates outline their positions ahead of the election.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Peggy Flanagan Flanagan is portrayed as an active, credentialed candidate currently serving as lieutenant governor.
- Michele Tafoya Tafoya is described neutrally as a candidate and former broadcaster participating in the debate.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned factually as the party Flanagan belongs to without evaluative content.
- Minnesota Minnesota is mentioned as the location of the race without reputational implications.
- Saint Paul, Minnesota Saint Paul is mentioned as the debate's location, a neutral factual detail.
- United States Senate The U.S. Senate is referenced as the context of the race without specific characterization.
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Which Will Be the Closer 2026 Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi
Leading:
73.5%
Minnesota
Vol $0.00
Minnesota 2026: Governor and Senate Combined Party Outcome
Leading:
91%
Democrats sweep
Vol $41k
Minnesota Senate winner?
Leading:
90.5%
Peggy Flanagan
Vol $5.8m
Ohio Senate Election: Total Voter Turnout
Leading:
98%
Above 3.70M
Vol $210.00
Louisiana Senate Election: Voter Turnout Thresholds
Leading:
91.5%
Above 1.2M
Vol $279.54
Tennessee Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold
Leading:
97%
Above 1.8M
Vol $0.32
South Carolina Senate Election: Turnout Forecast
Leading:
93%
Above 1.4M
Vol $0.30
New Mexico Senate Election: How Many Voters Will Turn Out
Leading:
91%
Above 850K
Vol $0.00