Louisiana Senate Election: Voter Turnout Thresholds

Jamie Davis, a 56-year-old farmer from Waterproof, Louisiana, is running as the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate against Republican incumbent Rep. Julia Letlow, who has backing from President Trump and Gov. Jeff Landry. Louisiana is considered solidly Republican and voted 60% for Trump in 2024, but a July Public Policy Polling survey showed Davis trailing Letlow by only four points, with 22% of voters undecided. If elected, Davis would be Louisiana's first Democratic senator since 2014 and its first Black senator since Reconstruction.

Davis, a farm operator and former parish police juror, has built his campaign around affordability, citing rising fuel, insurance and grocery costs. He has also criticized Letlow over a reported nondisclosure agreement with Meta and delayed stock disclosures tied to a Richland Parish data center project. Despite being outraised roughly three-to-one, Davis says his campaign is emphasizing grassroots organizing, with thousands of volunteers and paid organizers, to boost turnout ahead of the election in a race forecasters still favor Republicans to win.

Louisiana's open primary election takes place Tuesday, Nov. 3, with early voting held Oct. 20-27. The ballot features a crowded U.S. Senate race to replace Rep. Julia Letlow, who is stepping down after President Trump's endorsement, pitting her against Democrat Jamie Davis. Several U.S. House races are also at stake, including incumbents Steve Scalise, Troy Carter, and Clay Higgins, plus a wide-open contest for Letlow's 5th District seat and the newly redrawn, majority-white 6th District vacated by Cleo Fields.

Down-ballot contests include the influential Public Service Commissioner District 1 seat, St. Tammany Parish sheriff (following ex-Sheriff Randy Smith's guilty plea in an assault case), Plaquemines Parish president, and Bogalusa mayor, where incumbent Tyrin Truong faces criminal charges. Races without a majority winner will proceed to a December runoff, a likely outcome in several multi-candidate congressional and local contests.

Final pre-election FEC filings show wide fundraising disparities among Louisiana's congressional candidates. In the 6th District, Republican Blake Miguez leads with $7.6 million raised, far outpacing rival Rick Edmonds and other challengers, though polling suggests the race remains unsettled. In the open 5th District, state Rep. Michael Echols leads fundraising, bolstered by a large personal loan, ahead of Misti Cordell, Gabe Firment, and Stewart Cathey Jr. In the Senate race, GOP Rep. Julia Letlow, endorsed by President Trump, has outraised Democrat Jamie Davis $6.8 million to $4 million. Incumbents Mike Johnson, Steve Scalise, Troy Carter, and Clay Higgins retain major cash advantages over challengers as early voting continues toward the November 3 election.

Los Angeles County is scaling up ballot processing operations for the November election after criticism over how long it took to call the California Governor's race and LA Mayor's race following the June primary. County Registrar Dean Logan said the delay stems not from counting ballots but from verifying them—checking signatures and confirming voter eligibility before ballots can be tallied.

Nearly 90% of June primary voters cast ballots by mail, many returned in the final hours via drop boxes, vote centers, or the postal service; ballots postmarked by election day still count. With turnout expected to rise in November, the county plans to run processing operations around the clock for 72 to 96 hours after polls close and to release results more than once a day, up from the previous daily update. Logan acknowledged room for improvement, including possibly adding verification methods beyond signature matching, but warned some proposed reforms could slow counting further. He urged mail voters to return ballots early rather than risk postal delays close to election day.

Denham Springs City Court Judge Jerry Denton Jr., a Republican, is running for reelection in the Nov. 3 election, with early voting set for Oct. 20-27. Denton, a former homicide detective, worked as a special prosecutor for the East Baton Rouge Parish District Attorney's Office and later served as Assistant Attorney General Special Legal Counsel and Director of the Louisiana Attorney General's White Collar Public Corruption Section. He is licensed to practice before the U.S. Supreme Court.

Before becoming judge, Denton served as Denham Springs marshal from 2009 to 2016, earning Law Enforcement Officer of the Year honors, and as a city council member from 2006 to 2009, when he helped bring Bass Pro Shops to Denham Springs and worked on a new wastewater treatment plant. He has held leadership roles in Livingston Parish's Republican Party organizations and numerous legal and civic associations.

Los Angeles County begins mailing ballots this Thursday ahead of the Nov. 3 election, with all California counties required to start mailing by Oct. 5. In the June primary, nearly 82% of ballots cast in L.A. County were by mail. Voters can return ballots as soon as they arrive, using postage-free mail, official dropboxes, or in-person Vote Centers, which open starting Oct. 24 and will all be operating by Halloween. Orange County expects the U.S. Postal Service to pick up about 1.9 million ballots on Saturday, with delivery beginning Oct. 5.

The update comes amid scrutiny of federal efforts to restrict mail-in voting. The U.S. Supreme Court recently issued an injunction blocking a Trump administration executive order that would have required states to submit voter lists and directed USPS to send ballots only to approved recipients. California's Secretary of State says no changes have taken effect and voters can cast ballots without added uncertainty. State and local officials continue to encourage early voting ahead of the November election.

Louisiana heads into Nov. 3 elections for one U.S. Senate seat and several House seats under unusual circumstances. The U.S. Supreme Court's June 29 ruling in Callais v. Louisiana, which found the state's 6th Congressional District unconstitutionally gerrymandered, forced Gov. Jeff Landry to order a new open primary even after some ballots had already been cast, confusing voters about district lines. The Senate race to succeed Bill Cassidy, between Rep. Julia Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis, will be decided outright since a May primary already occurred; Cassidy was eliminated after being targeted by state Republicans over his impeachment vote. House races featuring incumbents are expected to avoid runoffs, but open seats in the 5th and 6th Districts likely head to a December runoff. Early voting has surged, particularly among Black voters.

Multiple Louisiana political figures are signaling possible interest in the 2028 presidential race. Former New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial, now head of the National Urban League, told an Oct. 3 panel at the March On! Festival that he is "thinking about running." He appeared alongside former U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu, who encouraged him, and her brother, former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, who has said since April he will decide after the midterms or early next year. U.S. Sen. John Kennedy also raised the possibility on NBC's "Meet the Press," suggesting he could do better than other potential contenders.

None of the three has formed a campaign team, PAC, or fundraising operation, but Kennedy and Landrieu have both published bestselling books and are actively campaigning for allies nationally. Louisiana has never produced a sitting-president nominee with strong local roots; past bids by Buddy Roemer and Bobby Jindal fizzled early. The 2028 field remains wide open on both sides, with JD Vance, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz atop GOP speculation, and Democrats awaiting word from Kamala Harris.

Detroit's Labor Day parade, once a magnet for top-tier Democratic politicians, has gone roughly a decade without a nationally prominent current or former elected official as its main draw. Bill Clinton campaigned there in 2016 for Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden addressed rallies in 2012 and 2014 as vice president, while Barack Obama spoke at the 2008 event during his first presidential run. This year's parade featured UAW President Shawn Fain and a slate of Michigan Democratic candidates, including Abdul El-Sayed, Jocelyn Benson, Eli Savit, and Garlin Gilchrist II, but no national figures.

Political consultants point to the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced cancellation of the parade from 2020 to 2022, along with candidates' shifting preference for controlled messaging over parade appearances. The decline comes even as Michigan gains outsized influence in 2028, after Democrats approved it to hold the nation's first Midwest presidential primary on Feb. 22, 2028. Analysts suggest national attention to the parade could rebound depending on the timing of the UAW's endorsement in that race.

Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press" that while his current plan is to seek reelection to the Senate in 2028, he would consider a presidential run if he felt he could no longer be effective in the Senate. Quoting a line from a song by The Judds, "Why not me on a rainy day?", Kennedy suggested he might enter the race if other Republican contenders — whom he dismissively called "goobers" — were running and he thought he could do a better job. He declined to address a potential matchup with Vice President J.D. Vance, saying he wasn't ready to discuss other candidates.

Kennedy also criticized President Trump's decision to publicly share Sen. Tom Cotton's phone number after Cotton opposed a bill to make Daylight Saving Time permanent, describing Trump as someone who "can go from zero to a-hole in about three seconds." The remarks continue a pattern of Kennedy voicing occasional criticism of the administration while maintaining he remains a Trump supporter.