Georgia Senate Race 2026: Winner Outlook

Early voting opened in Georgia for the 2026 midterm election, running through Oct. 30, with Oct. 23 as the deadline to request an absentee ballot. Nearly every major statewide office is open, with new officeholders guaranteed in most races. The headline contest pits Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms against Republican Rick Jackson for governor, while incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff faces Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Collins in a closely watched Senate race.

Down-ballot races include lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, agriculture, insurance and labor commissioner, plus two Public Service Commission seats, congressional and legislative contests. Voters will also decide three constitutional amendments covering conservation-use acreage limits, nonpartisan election of probate judges, and dedicated funding for 911 systems. Turnout data is tracked through the secretary of state's Election Data Hub. The races carry significant implications for prediction markets given Georgia's status as a key battleground state.

The Cook Political Report moved its ratings for two Senate races on Sept. 23, shifting Kansas from Likely Republican to Lean Republican and South Carolina from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, while still favoring the GOP in both. Cook cited economic pressures in Kansas—fuel, fertilizer and trade-war concerns—and questions over Sen. Roger Marshall's medical billing practices in his race against Democrat Adam Hamilton. In South Carolina, Sen. Lindsey Graham's uneven debate performances and a write-in campaign for primary rival Ralph Norman have raised doubts, though Democrat Annie Andrews remains an underdog. Cook also moved Georgia's race, between Sen. Jon Ossoff and Rep. Mike Collins, from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat, citing Ossoff's fundraising edge.

Cook now rates overall Senate control a Toss Up, projecting Democrats could net one to five seats; they need four for the majority. Analysts noted a favorable Democratic environment but stressed Republicans' financial advantage and the number of heavily red seats Democrats must still flip.

President Trump traveled to Dalton, Georgia, to rally for Senate candidate Mike Collins and gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson ahead of a competitive midterm election. Unlike recent stops in safely Republican states, Georgia remains a genuine battleground, with Collins facing Sen. Jon Ossoff and Jackson facing former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Both Democrats seized on the visit, arguing it ties the GOP ticket to Trump's economic record and 2020 election denialism; Collins has echoed Trump's fraud claims without directly affirming Biden's legitimate win. Gov. Brian Kemp, who delayed endorsing Collins, skipped the rally. The race highlights GOP divisions and narrowing margins even in deep-red Georgia districts.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Burt Jackson said he's worried rural Georgia voters may not turn out strongly for him, as early voting shows high turnout among Black voters, a key bloc for Democrats. Jackson faces former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) in a close contest; a recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia poll gave Jackson a narrow one-point lead. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) leads his reelection race by a wider margin, and Democrats hope strong Ossoff turnout lifts Bottoms. Jackson, a billionaire healthcare executive, has self-funded over $100 million of his campaign, far outpacing Bottoms, though Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker donated $1 million to her effort. Decision Desk HQ gives Bottoms a 56 percent win probability.

Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff and Republican challenger Rep. Mike Collins met Thursday night for their first debate in Georgia's closely watched U.S. Senate race, hosted by Atlanta News First. It was the first of two scheduled face-offs, with a second debate set for Tuesday at an Atlanta Press Club event.

Ossoff, seeking a second term, has maintained a consistent lead in public polling and holds a significant fundraising advantage over Collins, a sitting U.S. House member. Collins used the debate to try to shift momentum as the campaign enters its final weeks before the November election.

Advance in-person voting begins Oct. 13, with Election Day set for Nov. 3. The contest is among the most competitive Senate races of the midterm cycle and could play a role in determining control of the chamber, drawing national attention and heavy spending from both parties.

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) said during a debate against Republican challenger Rep. Mike Collins that President Trump's conduct already meets the threshold for impeachment, should Democrats win a House majority in November. Asked at the Atlanta Press Club-hosted debate whether he would support impeachment efforts and vote to convict, Ossoff said the president's "misconduct, abuse of power, and corruption already exceed any prior standard for impeachment," adding he would consider any articles of impeachment "on the merits as a juror in the Senate" if the House sends them.

Ossoff voted for Trump's second impeachment but was not in Congress during the first. Impeachment requires a House majority and a two-thirds Senate vote, both currently controlled by Republicans. The Georgia Senate race is seen as pivotal to control of the chamber in the second half of Trump's term, with polling showing Ossoff ahead of Collins less than a month before election day.

A scheduled debate between Georgia gubernatorial candidates fell apart Tuesday when Republican nominee Rick Jackson declined to appear opposite Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms in an in-studio matchup at 11Alive. Supporters for both campaigns clashed outside the station after Jackson backers crashed a Democratic Party of Georgia news conference. Party chair Charlie Bailey criticized Jackson for rejecting Bottoms' challenge to hold six statewide debates; Jackson has agreed only to an October town hall, saying his campaign is focused on direct voter outreach. It remains unclear whether he will reconsider before Atlanta Press Club debates set for October 12 and 13.

The turmoil comes as Georgia's Senate race also intensifies. Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff called on GOP nominee Mike Collins to release all communications between his office and white nationalists, after Collins aide Kip Talley departed amid revelations he had contacted figures including Nick Fuentes and Richard Spencer to help free a convicted Holocaust denier. Collins' campaign denied Talley was formally affiliated with the office and accused Ossoff of ignoring extremism among his own allies.

Georgia Republican Sen. David Perdue removed a digital campaign ad after reports that it had digitally enlarged the nose of his Democratic opponent, Jon Ossoff, who is Jewish. The Facebook ad, first flagged by the outlet the Forward, showed altered images of Ossoff and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, also Jewish, beneath a banner claiming Democrats were trying to "buy Georgia."

A Perdue spokeswoman called the alteration an "unintentional error" by an outside vendor and defended the senator's record opposing antisemitism. Ossoff rejected that explanation, calling the imagery an "obvious, least original anti-Semitic trope" and demanding a formal apology to Georgia's Jewish community. The controversy comes as Perdue seeks a second Senate term in a closely watched race that could help determine control of the chamber and shape the broader battle for the White House and Senate majority in November.

A Kansas Senate race that few expected to be competitive has tightened into a dead heat, with recent polling showing Republican incumbent Roger Marshall running even with Democrat Adam Hamilton, a megachurch pastor who was a registered Republican until earlier this year. Hamilton leads the Church of the Resurrection, a United Methodist congregation with 24,000 members, and has drawn national attention for a campaign style built around his pastoral background. Outside spending is surging into the race, with Senate Democrats' top super PAC committing $5 million and Republicans pledging $14 million to defend the seat.

The Kansas contest comes amid a broader wave of competitive Senate battlegrounds, including Georgia, Michigan, Maine, Texas, South Carolina, and Iowa, where recent debates turned personal and nonpartisan analysts have shifted ratings on 18 House races in Democrats' favor. For prediction markets, the race underscores growing uncertainty over Senate control in 2026, with a historically safe Republican seat now drawing heavy spending and shifting odds as Hamilton's unconventional candidacy gains traction in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.