Florida’s 8th Congressional District House Race
Florida’s 8th Congressional District, covering parts of the Space Coast including Brevard County, is set to hold a House election in 2026. The seat has leaned Republican in recent cycles, with national and local candidates positioning ahead of primaries and the general election. Redistricting and incumbency dynamics will shape who ultimately competes for the seat.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of individual House seats like FL-08 feeds directly into the broader battle for the chamber majority. A Republican-leaning district holding firm or flipping would signal shifts in voter sentiment across similar Florida communities. Local turnout, candidate quality, and national political trends will all factor into the outcome.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is which party’s nominee ultimately wins the general election, reducing a multi-candidate primary process into a binary partisan outcome. Traders are effectively weighing incumbency strength, regional voting history, and candidate viability against broader national midterm dynamics. This isolates FL-08 as a single data point within the larger fight for House control.
Related terms
Total Volume
$15.5k
Kalshi $10.2k · Polymarket $5.3k
Leading Market
Mike Haridopolos
Kalshi 95% · Polymarket 95%
Mike Haridopolos Volume
$2.8k
Kalshi $2.5k · Polymarket $334.80
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike HaridopolosRepublican Party | 95.3¢ | 7.0% |
|
95.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Jennifer JenkinsDemocratic Party | 5.3¢ | 7.0% |
|
5.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Florida Primary Results Scramble Both Parties’ Establishment Narratives
PN Team • 2 months ago
Florida's primaries produced a mixed picture for both parties ahead of November's general election. Rep. Byron Donalds won the Republican gubernatorial nomination with Trump's endorsement and a large financial edge, beating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner and newcomer James Fishback despite Gov. Ron DeSantis's public misgivings; Donalds would become Florida's first Black governor if elected. Former Republican congressman David Jolly, running with Gwen Graham as his lieutenant governor pick, won the Democratic nomination over state Rep. Dotie Joseph and others, pitching himself as a centrist who wants to end the culture wars. The two will meet in November to succeed the term-limited DeSantis, in a state where Democrats haven't won the governorship in over 30 years.
Progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon defeated establishment-backed Alex Vindman for the Senate Democratic nomination despite being outspent; she faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, who won her primary with Trump's backing, in the special election for Marco Rubio's former seat. Incumbents Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz turned back challengers, including Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, in redrawn districts under Florida's new Republican-favored congressional map. Trump-endorsed Cory Mills lost his House primary amid domestic violence allegations, while far-right figures Dan Bilzerian and Madison Cawthorn were also defeated, alongside Rep. Randy Fine's contentious win.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Byron Donalds Byron Donalds is highlighted as the Republican gubernatorial primary winner and would make history as Florida's first Black governor.
- Randy Fine Randy Fine's primary win is described as 'contentious,' implying a rocky and controversial victory.
- Ashley Moody Ashley Moody is portrayed as a successful incumbent who won her primary with Trump's backing.
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz Debbie Wasserman Schultz is noted as successfully defending her seat against a primary challenge.
- Jared Moskowitz Jared Moskowitz is noted as successfully fending off a primary challenger.
- Ron DeSantis DeSantis's public misgivings about Donalds were overridden, suggesting diminished influence within his own party.
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsements proved decisive in multiple races, reinforcing his political influence within the party.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party's primary results are described factually, with mixed outcomes for establishment and progressive wings.
- Florida Florida is the central setting of the primary results described in a factual, balanced manner.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party's primary results are reported neutrally, showing internal divisions but overall party competitiveness.
- Marco Rubio Marco Rubio is mentioned only as the prior holder of the Senate seat now up for special election.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned only as context for House and Senate primary races.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is referenced as the body for the various House primary races discussed.
- United States Senate The Senate is referenced as the body for the special election primary discussed.
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Elections
Cory Mills faces primary test amid ethics probe and withdrawn endorsements
PN Team • 2 months ago
Florida GOP Rep. Cory Mills is running for reelection while under House Ethics Committee investigation over allegations he assaulted a former girlfriend and violated campaign finance laws. Mills denies wrongdoing. Though he touts a Trump endorsement from February, Trump did not include Mills in a recent wave of primary endorsements, and Gov. Ron DeSantis has said he does not support Mills.
Mills faces GOP challengers Ryan Elijah, who has been endorsed by Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos, along with Sarah Ulrich and Michael Don Johnson. His central Florida 7th District seat, which he has won twice, was left unchanged in the state's May redistricting.
The controversy has shifted the race's outlook: Cook Political Report moved the district from "solid red" to "likely red." Democrats see an opening, backing Navy veteran Bale Dalton through the DCCC, while former Rep. Alan Grayson is also running. Voter sentiment in the district is split over whether Mills' record outweighs his perceived effectiveness.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) The Florida GOP primary controversy reflects internal party discord over Mills' scandal.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned as the body Mills serves in amid the ethics controversy.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned neutrally as withholding a fresh endorsement despite a prior one, a mixed but mild reference.
- Ron DeSantis DeSantis is mentioned neutrally stating he does not support Mills, a factual political stance.
- Florida Florida is mentioned factually as the state where the district and redistricting occurred.
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Elections
Florida Rep. Cory Mills Loses Republican Primary Amid Scandals
PN Team • 2 months ago
Florida Rep. Cory Mills lost his Republican primary in the state's 7th Congressional District to former TV anchor Ryan Elijah, ending his bid for a third term. Mills's campaign was marked by allegations of sexual misconduct, a court injunction from a former girlfriend, a House Ethics Committee investigation into misconduct and campaign finance claims, and questions about his military record. President Trump had given Mills his "Complete and Total Endorsement" in February, but later distanced himself by excluding Mills from a round of congressional endorsements. Florida incumbents Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos, along with Gov. Ron DeSantis, backed Elijah instead.
Elijah will face Democrat and military veteran Bale Dalton in November. The district is expected to remain Republican-leaning under Florida's newly redrawn congressional map, though analysts note the race could factor into broader midterm dynamics as Democrats are currently favored to retake the House majority.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's initial endorsement of a scandal-hit candidate followed by distancing himself suggests a minor reputational inconsistency.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican primary loss and associated scandal reflect somewhat negatively on the party's candidate quality in this race.
- Ron DeSantis DeSantis is portrayed favorably by backing the winning, non-scandalized candidate.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned as the body Mills served in and is tangentially tied to the scandal-plagued term.
- Florida Florida is the factual setting of the congressional race without independent reputational implication.
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Politics
Florida man arrested for threatening judge in email
PN Team • 2 months ago
Brevard County, Florida authorities arrested Michael Barnard, 54, after he allegedly sent threatening emails to a judge overseeing one of his cases. Sheriff Wayne Ivey said Barnard used a newly created email address to send two messages telling the judge she had "made several poor decisions" and that he "was coming for her," including a demand that she dismiss a temporary order against him.
Investigators traced the emails to Barnard, who had been served a temporary restraining order just hours before sending the first message. Deputies arrested him at his residence on an existing warrant for violation of probation tied to a prior charge of written threats to kill or cause bodily harm. Barnard was additionally charged with corruption by threat against a public servant and unlawful use of a two-way communications device. He reportedly told agents he was upset about recent developments in his case.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Brevard County, Florida Named as the jurisdiction where the arrest occurred, a factual/neutral location reference tied to a crime.
- Florida State mentioned as the setting for the incident, largely factual with mild negative association due to the crime.
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In the News
Florida woman killed in I-95 crash triggered by alligator identified as new sheriff’s office hire
PN Team • 2 months ago
Cassi Taylor, 20, was killed Monday in a chain-reaction crash on I-95 in Brevard County, Florida, after a vehicle ahead of her struck an alligator in the roadway. Taylor swerved to avoid the other car, lost control, and was thrown from her vehicle as it overturned into the center lane, according to the Florida Highway Patrol. A third driver then struck her and fled the scene; that driver has not been located.
Taylor had joined the Indian River County Sheriff's Office on July 20 as a civilian corrections assistant and was set to be sworn in the day she died. She was the daughter of Deputy Scott Burke, a well-known figure in the local community. The sheriff's office mourned her as one of its "newest team members." FHP is asking anyone with information about the hit-and-run driver to come forward.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Brevard County, Florida Named as the location of the fatal chain-reaction crash, a tragic event but not reflecting on the county's conduct.
- Florida Setting of the incident, mentioned factually as the state where the crash occurred.
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Florida deputy, woman killed in head-on I-95 crash after shooting response
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
A Brevard County, Florida, sheriff's deputy and a 26-year-old woman were killed early Sunday in a head-on collision on Interstate 95 near Titusville. Deputy Kevin Morris, 55, was en route to the scene of a deputy-involved shooting in Mims when the crash occurred around 11 p.m. Saturday. The woman, whose identity has not been released, had reportedly attended a beachside wedding earlier that day.
Authorities said the woman's vehicle was traveling north on I-95 before making a U-turn into oncoming lanes, striking Morris's SUV head-on. The reason for the maneuver is unknown, and the Florida Highway Patrol is investigating, including a toxicology exam of the woman. Sheriff Wayne Ivey praised Morris as a dedicated officer and family man who returned to law enforcement in 2021. The earlier shooting in Mims, which Morris was responding to, involved deputies fatally wounding a 79-year-old man who allegedly pointed a firearm at them during a mental health call; that incident remains under separate review.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Brevard County, Florida The county's sheriff's office is central to both the fatal crash and the separate deputy-involved shooting, a tragic context.
- Law enforcement The broader law enforcement context involves a deputy death and a separate fatal shooting under review, giving a mildly negative tangential tone.
- Florida Florida is the setting for the tragic crash and shooting, a neutral geographic reference.
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In the News
Florida Deputy of the Year resigns amid misconduct probe tied to speeding stop
PN Team • 2 months ago
A Florida Highway Patrol trooper clocked Brevard County Sheriff's Deputy Michael Fultz riding his motorcycle at 111 mph in February but did not arrest him under Florida's "Super Speeder" law, which allows arrests for driving 100 mph or more in a dangerous manner. Body camera video shows the trooper initially say Fultz was "going to jail" before recognizing him as a fellow officer, then issuing only a civil citation. Fultz also lacked a motorcycle endorsement, which went uncited.
Fultz, named Brevard County's 2025 Deputy of the Year in March after fatally shooting a knife-wielding man, resigned in May as Sheriff Wayne Ivey moved to fire him for "egregious misconduct." An internal investigation, prompted by his ex-girlfriend's complaint, found Fultz had used racial slurs, misused the agency's license-plate reader system to search her tag, appeared in a photo mimicking a Nazi salute, and engaged in inappropriate conduct including an on-duty video call. Fultz paid the speeding fine, apologized publicly, and disputed some findings while accepting responsibility for his actions.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Brevard County, Florida Brevard County's sheriff's office is directly implicated in the misconduct scandal and cover-up of a speeding violation.
- Law enforcement The story depicts law enforcement in an unfavorable light through favoritism during a traffic stop and an officer's misconduct.
- Florida Florida is the setting for the misconduct and legal loophole discussed, reflecting negatively on state law enforcement practices.
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Elections
Wasserman Schultz Wins Contested Democratic Primary in Redrawn Florida District
PN Team • 2 months ago
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) won her party's primary in Florida's newly drawn 20th Congressional District, a plurality-Black seat centered on Broward County, after her old 25th District seat was eliminated in Republican-led mid-decade redistricting ordered by Gov. Ron DeSantis. Rather than run in a new, whiter district that favored Trump, she chose to compete in the 20th, drawing criticism from local Black leaders, the Broward Black Democratic Caucus, and Congressional Black Caucus members who saw her candidacy as a threat to Black political representation already weakened by the Supreme Court's rollback of the Voting Rights Act; Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries declined to endorse her.
Wasserman Schultz defeated a divided field of four Black challengers — former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, rapper Luther "Luke" Campbell, Elijah Manley, and Dale Holness — leaning on seniority, fundraising, and an Appropriations Committee seat while her rivals split the opposing vote. Her win makes her the only white House member representing a plurality or majority-Black district heading into 2027, following the elimination of Rep. Steve Cohen's Memphis district by Tennessee Republicans. The broader Florida redistricting effort cut four Democratic-leaning seats ahead of the midterms.
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are portrayed as orchestrating mid-decade redistricting to weaken Democratic and Black representation.
- Ron DeSantis DeSantis is tied to Republican-led redistricting seen as harming Democratic and Black representation.
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz She won the primary but faced significant criticism for displacing Black representation, a mixed but net-negative portrayal.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is depicted as internally divided over race and representation in this primary fight.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned only as favored by the alternative district, a tangential reference.
- Florida Florida is the site of contentious redistricting that reduced Democratic seats.
- Hakeem Jeffries Jeffries' refusal to endorse her is a minor factual detail reflecting political tension, not a direct characterization of him.
- Broward County, Florida Broward County is mentioned factually as the seat's geographic base.
- Florida's 20th congressional district The district itself is central to the story as a factual subject.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned factually as the body whose seats were affected by redistricting.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is the factual body relevant to the seat and election described.
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Florida teen set to plead guilty in murders of mother and her boyfriend
PN Team • 1 month ago
Julia Egler, now 18, is expected to enter a plea and be sentenced Friday in the 2023 killings of her mother, Kelley McCollom, 38, and McCollom's boyfriend, Matthew Szejnrok, 22, at their Palm Bay, Florida home. Egler was 16 at the time of the killings.
Police said Egler initially called 911 claiming an intruder had attacked the victims, but investigators found bloody footprints matching her shoes and other evidence contradicting her account. After being read her Miranda rights, Egler confessed, telling police she waited for the victims with a revolver and knife taken from her mother's room, greeted them by saying "Welcome home," then shot and stabbed them. Investigators cited ongoing family conflict as a motive, including her mother's disapproval of Egler's gender transition and Egler's disapproval of her mother's relationship with Szejnrok.
The case drew national attention after Egler's interrogation video was made public. A grand jury indicted her on two counts of first-degree murder; rather than go to trial, she is expected to accept a plea deal.
Sources:
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Elections
Alaska holds midterm primaries in pivotal Senate race
PN Team • 2 months ago
Alaska voters headed to the polls Tuesday in primaries shaping contests for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor and the legislature, alongside a Florida primary seen as an early indicator for control of Congress. The marquee Alaska race pits Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan against Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola, one of 16 candidates in the all-party primary; the top four finishers advance to a November general election decided by ranked choice voting. A same-named challenger, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., also qualified for the ballot after Republicans failed in court to remove him, and the Justice Department is reportedly investigating whether he entered the race to confuse voters and split support from the incumbent.
Rep. Nick Begich is seeking a second term against independent challenger Bill Hill, while 17 candidates compete to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy. Voters are also deciding a ballot measure on campaign contribution limits. Some polls show Peltola leading in a state that typically favors Republicans, and Democrats view Alaska as a key opportunity as they seek to flip four seats to win Senate control.
Sentiment
- Mary Peltola Peltola is shown leading in some polls in a traditionally Republican-leaning state, a favorable portrayal.
- Dan Sullivan (U.S. senator) Sullivan faces a competitive race and a confusingly similar-named challenger, a mildly unfavorable situation for him.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are portrayed as failing in a court effort and facing a potentially competitive loss in a traditionally favorable state.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are mentioned as viewing Alaska as a key opportunity to flip Senate seats, a neutral strategic framing.
- Alaska Alaska is the factual setting for the primary elections described.
- Florida Florida's primary is mentioned as an early indicator for congressional control, a neutral factual reference.
- Independent politician Independent challenger Bill Hill is mentioned only factually without elaboration.
- Mike Dunleavy (politician) Dunleavy is mentioned only as the term-limited governor whose seat is open.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned as the broader context for the elections without specific evaluative content.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned as one of the contested offices without further detail.
- United States Senate The Senate race is the central topic but described factually without reputational spin.
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Leading:
97.5%
Lois Frankel
Vol $4.3k
Who Will Win Florida’s 20th Congressional District House Seat
Leading:
97.5%
Debbie Wasserman Schultz
Vol $22.2k
Florida’s 16th District House Race: Who Will Win
Leading:
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Vol $23.5k
Florida’s 13th District House Race: Who Will Win
Leading:
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Vol $4.5k
Florida’s 14th District House Race: Who Will Win
Leading:
71.5%
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Vol $964.5k
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Leading:
95%
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Vol $19k
Florida’s 25th District House Race: Who Will Win
Leading:
80.5%
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Vol $58.2k