Colorado Governor Race: Margin of Victory

Colorado, once a reliable Republican state, has leaned decidedly Democratic in recent cycles, and 2026 looks similar. Gov. Phil Weiser and Sen. John Hickenlooper are favored for easy wins over underfunded Republican opponents Victor Marx and Mark Baisley, with some GOP figures, including former Rep. Ken Buck, crossing over to back Weiser. The closest races are in the U.S. House: Democrat Manny Rutinel is seen as favored over Republican incumbent Gabe Evans in District 8, while Republican incumbent Jeff Crank is expected to hold District 5 against well-funded Democrat Jessica Killin despite backlash over the Space Command relocation. Analysts attribute the overall Democratic advantage to anti-Trump sentiment and weak Republican statewide recruitment.

Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old U.S. citizen jailed in Russia for more than four years on charges of fighting for Ukraine, has been released, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed during talks with Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg. Hubbard, the last American formally designated wrongfully detained in Russia, was in poor health and expected to be flown to Texas for treatment. President Trump said he personally secured the release in a direct call with Putin, describing it as unconditional with no prisoner swap involved. The release came days after Trump eased sanctions on Russia, a move that drew bipartisan congressional backlash, with some states, including Colorado, publicly reaffirming solidarity with Ukraine.

Hubbard, a retired teacher and military veteran, was captured in Ukraine in 2022 and sentenced in 2024. His release follows those of Robert Gilman, Marc Fogel, Evan Gershkovich, and Paul Whelan. Roughly 10 Americans remain detained in Russia.

Colorado's Medicaid spending has jumped roughly 15%, more than $2 billion, from 2023 to 2025 even as enrollment fell by over half a million people, according to a Common Sense Institute analysis. The state Medicaid department's share of Colorado's operating budget has grown from 27% in 2013 to a projected 41% in 2027. The analysis attributes much of the increase to 182 health-care bills enacted since 2019, adding an estimated $858 million annually in costs, including expanded in-home care services, pharmacy copay coverage, and a health program for immigrants in the country illegally that has grown from 3,600 to 30,000 enrollees.

The spending growth follows separate scrutiny of Colorado's Medicaid oversight: a Gazette investigation uncovered alleged overbilling by homeless service providers in Aurora, prompting a state probe and the suspension of a home-health agency, while a federal HHS inspector general audit found Colorado failed to meet requirements for some personal care service payments, triggering an $8 million repayment demand.

New York City, Chicago, San Francisco, Seattle, Santa Clara County, King County and 22 states and the District of Columbia — including Illinois, California, Colorado, Washington and others, plus Pennsylvania's governor — have sued in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York over a Department of Homeland Security rule change to the "public charge" standard set to take effect Friday, Sept. 18. The rule lets immigration officials deny green cards or visas to applicants deemed likely to use any means-tested public benefit, including SNAP, Medicaid, housing vouchers or school lunch programs, reversing a narrower 2022 rule limited to cash assistance. It applies to family- and employment-based visa applicants; refugees, asylum recipients, TPS holders and certain trafficking or domestic violence victims are exempt. A similar policy from Trump's first term was blocked by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in 2020.

Plaintiffs, led by New York Attorney General Letitia James and joined by Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, Washington Attorney General Nick Brown and Illinois Deputy Attorney General Cara Hendrickson, call the rule unlawful, "arbitrary and capricious," and lacking clear standards for how benefit use counts against applicants. They warn it could push eligible immigrant and mixed-status families, including U.S. citizen children, away from benefits out of fear, straining local health, housing and school systems and costing states billions. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Colorado AG Phil Weiser led public criticism. DHS and USCIS defend the rule as protecting taxpayers from subsidizing dependent immigrants and dismiss the suits as politically motivated.

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis has opened applications for a new "Governor for a Day" contest aimed at seventh and eighth graders across the state. The winning student will join Polis at the State Capitol to shadow the governor's daily responsibilities, including sitting in on meetings and observing how Colorado's government functions.

To enter, students must complete an application form and submit a video explaining why they want to serve as governor for a day. Applications open Aug. 31 and close Sept. 7, with the winner set to be announced by the Governor's Office on Sept. 14. Polis framed the initiative as a way to engage young Coloradans in civic life and give a student firsthand exposure to state leadership.

Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser has filed a federal lawsuit seeking to block a new ICE detention facility planned for Hudson, about 30 miles northeast of Denver. The facility would occupy the former Hudson Correctional Facility, closed for 12 years, under a contract between the Department of Homeland Security, ICE, and private prison operator GEO Group—the same company that runs the Aurora ICE facility. Plans call for renovating the site into a 1,200-bed private immigration detention center, which would nearly double Hudson's population.

The lawsuit alleges DHS and ICE failed to meet statutory obligations to assess environmental impacts, inform the public, and ensure detention sites are appropriate for civil immigration custody. Weiser's office is asking the court to halt further activity until an environmental review and legal compliance documentation are completed. DHS dismissed the suit as a political effort to obstruct immigration enforcement rather than a genuine environmental concern. The case follows a separate lawsuit filed in July by advocacy groups against the town of Hudson over the same project.

More than two dozen states and cities, including Colorado, have sued the Trump administration over the EPA's repeal of a Biden-era rule limiting greenhouse gas emissions from coal- and gas-fired power plants. The coalition, led by New York and including Colorado, Arizona, California, Illinois, and others, along with Denver, Chicago, New York City, and Washington, D.C., is petitioning the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia to strike down the repeal, arguing the EPA unlawfully abandoned the limits without properly weighing alternatives or the health and climate costs of increased pollution.

New York Attorney General Letitia James and Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser both criticized the move, framing it as prioritizing industry profits over public health. The EPA, which does not comment on pending litigation, has said the repeal will save industry over $300 billion and give utilities more flexibility on plant operations. The coalition also plans to sue separately over EPA's failure to regulate emissions from many gas-fired plants, as the agency pursues a related rule that could bar future administrations from regulating power plant greenhouse gases.

Colorado Democrats closed out a six-day, 25-stop statewide bus tour by framing the midterms as a referendum on Donald Trump, betting that voter frustration with his administration will boost turnout. Sen. John Hickenlooper blamed Trump's tariffs, the Iran conflict and health care cuts for a "cost of living catastrophe," while attorney general nominee Jena Griswold pledged to sue to protect voting rights and immigrant communities. Candidates also cited Trump's moves against Colorado, including relocating U.S. Space Command, denying disaster aid and vetoing a water project. Republicans, hampered by infighting, countered that Democrats themselves are to blame for high living costs. Democrats are defending statewide offices and congressional seats while eyeing veto-proof legislative majorities.

Colorado's U.S. Senate contest pits Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper, seeking a second term after a career as Denver mayor and governor, against Republican state Sen. Mark Baisley of Woodland Park. Baisley campaigns on fiscal restraint, government accountability, property tax reform and expanding first-time homebuyer access, drawing on his aerospace engineering background and work on tech and defense issues in the legislature. Hickenlooper points to his record capping insulin costs, expanding Medicare drug price negotiation, and opposing Trump administration policies on public lands, tariffs, and healthcare cuts, while emphasizing water and healthcare expertise from his time as governor.

Colorado has trended Democratic in recent federal elections, though Republicans have won statewide Senate races before — Cory Gardner held the seat until Hickenlooper unseated him in 2020. With Democrats and Republicans nearly even in active voter registration and unaffiliated voters forming the largest bloc, the race is being watched as a test of whether Republicans can flip a statewide seat amid broader national political headwinds.

Arizona's 2026 governor's race pits Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs against Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, with Green Party candidate Risa Lombardo and No Labels candidate Teri Ann Hourihan also on the ballot. Hobbs, who defeated Kari Lake in 2022, is emphasizing tax cuts, medical debt relief, and a tougher stance on immigration, while distancing herself from some national Democratic positions. Biggs, a longtime Trump ally and former House Freedom Caucus chair who backed efforts to block certification of the 2020 election results, has Trump's endorsement and support from Turning Point Action. Both campaigns are trading attack ads over child-sex-abuse legislation records.

Republicans hold a voter registration edge, but low turnout and Trump's sagging approval ratings could favor Democrats, echoing 2018's "Blue Wave." For the first time, each candidate has a running mate for a newly created lieutenant governor post: Biggs chose state Sen. Sine Kerr, while Hobbs picked former Republican Mesa Mayor John Giles, now an independent, to court centrist voters.