Colorado Senate winner?
Related terms
-
Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States Senate -
Swing state -
Colorado -
John Hickenlooper -
Mark Baisley
Total Volume
$1.9m
Kalshi $67.7k · Polymarket $1.8m
Leading Market
John Hickenlooper
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 99%
John Hickenlooper Volume
$1m
Kalshi $19.2k · Polymarket $989.4k
John Hickenlooper 24h Change
-0.90%
Kalshi -0.90% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John HickenlooperDemocratic Party | 99.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Mark BaisleyRepublican Party | 1.4¢ | 7.0% |
|
2.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Hickenlooper, Baisley clash in Colorado’s 2026 Senate race
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Colorado's U.S. Senate contest pits Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper, seeking a second term after a career as Denver mayor and governor, against Republican state Sen. Mark Baisley of Woodland Park. Baisley campaigns on fiscal restraint, government accountability, property tax reform and expanding first-time homebuyer access, drawing on his aerospace engineering background and work on tech and defense issues in the legislature. Hickenlooper points to his record capping insulin costs, expanding Medicare drug price negotiation, and opposing Trump administration policies on public lands, tariffs, and healthcare cuts, while emphasizing water and healthcare expertise from his time as governor.
Colorado has trended Democratic in recent federal elections, though Republicans have won statewide Senate races before — Cory Gardner held the seat until Hickenlooper unseated him in 2020. With Democrats and Republicans nearly even in active voter registration and unaffiliated voters forming the largest bloc, the race is being watched as a test of whether Republicans can flip a statewide seat amid broader national political headwinds.
Sources:
Sentiment
- John Hickenlooper Hickenlooper's record and policy positions are presented favorably, emphasizing accomplishments like capping insulin costs.
- Mark Baisley Baisley is portrayed positively through his policy focus and professional background.
- Democratic Party (United States) Hickenlooper's Democratic affiliation is mentioned factually in context of the Senate race.
- Republican Party (United States) Baisley's Republican affiliation and the party's chances of flipping the seat are discussed neutrally.
- Denver Denver is mentioned as the city where Hickenlooper was mayor, a factual detail.
- Colorado Colorado is the location of the Senate race, described neutrally with political trends.
- United States Senate The U.S. Senate seat is the subject of the race, mentioned factually.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Colorado GOP statewide slate marred by scandal-plagued candidates ahead of 2026 election
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Colorado Republicans head into the 2026 election cycle with a statewide slate widely criticized as among the weakest in party history, with gubernatorial candidate Victor Marx at the center of multiple controversies. Marx was fined $57,000 for exceeding legal campaign donation limits, has faced scrutiny over fabricated claims about rescuing trafficking victims, and was found to have used manipulated and AI-altered imagery in campaign materials. Video also surfaced of Marx describing past incidents of violence toward his wife and son.
Marx is not alone: election deniers Mark Baisley and James Wiley are running for U.S. Senate and secretary of state respectively, wealthy independent Bob Chew has self-funded a long-shot Senate bid, and perennial candidate Greg Lopez is making a third gubernatorial attempt, this time as an independent. Critics attribute the party's decline to campaign finance changes, the rise of direct digital fundraising bypassing party vetting, and increasing ideological polarization that has narrowed the primary electorate. The weakened GOP field raises questions about competitive balance in Colorado's statewide races against well-established Democratic contenders.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mark Baisley Labeled an election denier running for Senate, which casts a negative light on his candidacy.
- Democratic Party (United States) Described as well-established and competitive relative to the weakened GOP field, implying favorable positioning.
- Colorado Colorado is the setting for a scandal-ridden and weakened GOP slate, reflecting poorly on the state's political landscape.
- Independent politician Referenced as a category describing long-shot independent candidates like Chew and Lopez without strong positive or negative framing.
- United States Senate Mentioned factually as the office being contested by Baisley and Chew without direct reputational implications.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Iran war becomes flashpoint in Colorado Senate debate
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Colorado's U.S. Senate race has sharpened into a proxy fight over President Trump's military campaign against Iran, with Republican state Sen. Baisley and Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper clashing in their only televised debate on 9News. Baisley defended the strikes as overdue given decades of Iranian-backed attacks on Americans, acknowledging rising gas prices but arguing the cost is worth standing up to "bullies." He stopped short of backing ground troops in Iran.
Hickenlooper called the war reckless, pushing instead for negotiations to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions while conceding past administrations, including Obama's and Biden's, hadn't pressed hard enough. He left room for limited strikes if Iran blocked inspectors but opposed regime change. He has made war opposition central to his campaign, backing a war-powers resolution and featuring the issue in his first general election ad. The two also split over Trump's easing of sanctions on Russian diesel, which Hickenlooper called a political betrayal. Hickenlooper remains the favored candidate heading into the midterms.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Iran Iran is depicted negatively as the source of backed attacks and nuclear threats prompting military action.
- John Hickenlooper Hickenlooper is portrayed favorably as the measured, anti-war candidate who is the frontrunner.
- Barack Obama Obama is cited by Hickenlooper as part of past administrations that failed to adequately pressure Iran.
- Democratic Party (United States) Hickenlooper, the Democratic incumbent, is portrayed as the favored candidate with a measured stance on the war.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican Baisley is shown defending Trump's strikes with a reasoned but contested position on costs.
- Colorado Colorado is the neutral setting for the Senate race.
- United States Senate The Senate race itself is the factual backdrop for the debate without inherent reputational spin.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Colorado’s 2026 midterms shape up as a Democratic-leaning cycle
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Colorado, once a reliable Republican state, has leaned decidedly Democratic in recent cycles, and 2026 looks similar. Gov. Phil Weiser and Sen. John Hickenlooper are favored for easy wins over underfunded Republican opponents Victor Marx and Mark Baisley, with some GOP figures, including former Rep. Ken Buck, crossing over to back Weiser. The closest races are in the U.S. House: Democrat Manny Rutinel is seen as favored over Republican incumbent Gabe Evans in District 8, while Republican incumbent Jeff Crank is expected to hold District 5 against well-funded Democrat Jessica Killin despite backlash over the Space Command relocation. Analysts attribute the overall Democratic advantage to anti-Trump sentiment and weak Republican statewide recruitment.
Sources:
Sentiment
- John Hickenlooper Hickenlooper is portrayed as favored for an easy win in his Senate race.
- Phil Weiser Weiser is favored for an easy gubernatorial win, a positive reflection of his political standing.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is portrayed as favored to win across most races, reflecting a positive electoral outlook.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are described as underfunded and facing weak recruitment, suggesting a negative electoral outlook despite holding one district.
- Donald Trump Anti-Trump sentiment is cited as a factor boosting Democrats, implying a negative association for Trump's political standing.
- Colorado Colorado is discussed neutrally as the political landscape shifting toward Democrats.
- United States House of Representatives The U.S. House is mentioned factually as the chamber where the closest races occur.
- United States Senate The U.S. Senate is referenced factually regarding Hickenlooper's race.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Colorado Democrats center midterm campaign on anti-Trump message
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Colorado Democrats closed out a six-day, 25-stop statewide bus tour by framing the midterms as a referendum on Donald Trump, betting that voter frustration with his administration will boost turnout. Sen. John Hickenlooper blamed Trump's tariffs, the Iran conflict and health care cuts for a "cost of living catastrophe," while attorney general nominee Jena Griswold pledged to sue to protect voting rights and immigrant communities. Candidates also cited Trump's moves against Colorado, including relocating U.S. Space Command, denying disaster aid and vetoing a water project. Republicans, hampered by infighting, countered that Democrats themselves are to blame for high living costs. Democrats are defending statewide offices and congressional seats while eyeing veto-proof legislative majorities.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is blamed for tariffs, cost of living issues, and actions harming Colorado, reflecting unfavorable portrayal.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are described as hampered by infighting, a negative characterization.
- John Hickenlooper Hickenlooper is portrayed favorably as a vocal critic highlighting policy failures affecting constituents.
- Democratic Party (United States) Colorado Democrats are portrayed as actively campaigning and strategizing, a largely neutral-to-mildly favorable depiction of political activity.
- Iran Iran is mentioned only in connection with a conflict blamed on Trump, a tangential reference.
- Colorado Colorado is the factual setting for the political campaign, a neutral mention.
Related Events
Related Events
Congress
Suspicious letters sent to lawmakers’ offices nationwide prompt FBI investigation
PN Team • 1 week ago
Arizona Democratic Reps. Greg Stanton, Yassamin Ansari and Adelita Grijalva reported suspicious letters, some containing unknown substances, sent to former office addresses, following a similar incident at Secretary of State Adrian Fontes' office that prompted an Arizona Capitol evacuation; the substance there proved non-hazardous. The FBI, U.S. Postal Inspection Service and U.S. Capitol Police confirmed a broader nationwide pattern, with over 800 suspicious envelopes sent to congressional and election offices. Colorado lawmakers including Sen. John Hickenlooper and Reps. Joe Neguse, Jason Crow, Brittany Pettersen and Diana DeGette also reported receiving or intercepting such letters. Staff were unharmed; officials called the mailings an intimidation attempt and vowed continued investigation.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Arizona Arizona is the site of the evacuation and multiple targeted offices, associating the state with the security incident.
- Adrian Fontes Fontes' office was targeted by a suspicious letter, a victim mention with slight negative association from the evacuation incident.
- Colorado Colorado is referenced as the location of multiple lawmakers targeted by the mailings.
- Greg Stanton Stanton is named as a victim of the suspicious mailings, a negative but passive association.
- Joe Neguse Neguse is listed among Colorado lawmakers targeted by the letters, a negative but passive mention.
- John Hickenlooper Hickenlooper is named as a recipient of suspicious mail, a negative but non-culpable association.
- United States The nationwide scope of the mailings implicates the broader U.S. political and security context.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic lawmakers were the victims of the mailings, a factual mention without reflecting on the party itself.
- Law enforcement Law enforcement is mentioned generically as part of the response effort.
Related Events
Related Events
Congress
Colorado lawmakers split on how to regulate AI
PN Team • 1 month ago
Colorado's congressional delegation is voicing growing concern over artificial intelligence, though members diverge on how—or whether—Washington should respond. Rep. Brittany Pettersen called for stronger industry standards, including independent audits and mandatory incident reporting. Sen. John Hickenlooper, who co-introduced bipartisan legislation on AI testing standards, warned the country is "entering a new and dangerous era" and urged the White House to address the technology's risks. Rep. Jason Crow echoed concerns about privacy and national security.
Sen. Michael Bennet argued Congress "will never be able to move fast enough" to regulate AI directly and instead proposed creating an independent federal agency for oversight. Republicans showed a different emphasis: Rep. Gabe Evans backed "common sense guardrails" and helped pass a House bill targeting AI data center costs, while also promoting American-made AI models over foreign competitors. Rep. Jeff Crank called for safety nets from AI companies themselves. The mixed responses highlight an unresolved national debate over federal AI oversight, with implications for markets tracking regulatory timelines and outcomes.
Sources:
Sentiment
- John Hickenlooper Hickenlooper is depicted as a proactive bipartisan leader warning of AI risks and co-introducing legislation.
- Jason Crow Crow is portrayed neutrally as raising legitimate concerns about privacy and national security.
- Colorado Colorado is mentioned as the setting for its delegation's policy debate without direct reputational effect.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned neutrally as the body debating AI regulation.
- United States House of Representatives The House is referenced factually regarding a bill on AI data center costs.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
New Hampshire primary voters set fall matchups for open Senate and House seats
PN Team • 2 months ago
New Hampshire held primary elections Tuesday to pick nominees for Congress, governor and the state Legislature, with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement reshaping the ballot. Rep. Chris Pappas led a five-way Democratic Senate field that included progressive challenger Karishma Manzur, a research scientist and democratic socialist whose late surge, fueled by criticism of Pappas' pro-Israel donor support and his "present" vote on restricting arms sales to Israel, narrowed his once-commanding lead despite his large fundraising advantage and Shaheen's endorsement. On the Republican side, John Sununu, endorsed by President Trump over rival Scott Brown, held a wide edge among eight candidates; both Sununu and Brown are former senators previously defeated by Shaheen. The seat is one of a handful nationally that could help decide Senate control, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats.
Pappas' departure from the 1st District opened a crowded race, with Stefany Shaheen (Jeanne Shaheen's daughter) and Maura Sullivan leading a nine-person Democratic field; Republicans chose among five candidates including Trump-endorsed businessman Anthony DiLorenzo and repeat candidate Hollie Noveletsky. In the 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander faced a primary challenge from state legislator Paige Beauchemin, while Republicans chose from candidates including repeat nominee Lily Tang Williams. Gov. Kelly Ayotte easily advanced toward a second term against two Republican rivals, favored against unopposed Democrat Cinde Warmington. Winners have eight weeks to campaign before the November 3 general election, as New Hampshire shifts future primaries to June starting in 2026.
Sources:
Sentiment
- John E. Sununu Sununu is shown holding a wide lead with Trump's endorsement, a favorable portrayal of his campaign strength.
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsement of Sununu is portrayed as a boost to Sununu's campaign, reflecting positively on Trump's political influence.
- Israel Israel is mentioned in the context of controversy over arms sales and donor support affecting Pappas' campaign.
- New Hampshire New Hampshire is the setting of the primary election, described factually as undergoing a normal electoral process.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party's crowded primary fields are described factually without clear favorable or unfavorable framing.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party's competitive primary races are reported neutrally.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned only as the office being contested, with no reputational framing.
- United States House of Representatives The House seat race is described factually without reputational implications for the institution.
- United States Senate The Senate seat and its national significance are discussed neutrally.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Colorado Coalition Expands Poll Monitoring Amid Voter Intimidation Concerns
PN Team • 4 days ago
Ahead of Colorado's Nov. 3 election, the coalition Just Vote Colorado has recruited about 800 nonpartisan volunteers to staff polling locations, alongside an attorney-run election-protection hotline and faith leaders deployed to ease tensions. Organizers say the effort responds to heightened anxiety driven by President Trump's attacks on election integrity. Training covers spotting ICE activity and de-escalating confrontations, following an incident in Salida where activists reportedly linked to the Proud Boys harassed voters dropping off ballots. The Justice Department also plans to send federal monitors to Adams County. State officials, including Secretary of State Jena Griswold, say Colorado's elections remain secure and are proceeding normally.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Portrayed as the source of attacks on election integrity fueling voter anxiety.
- Colorado Setting for election-security concerns but officials affirm elections remain secure and normal.
Related Events
Related Events
Congress
Colorado lawmakers introduce bipartisan bill on battlefield trauma care research
PN Team • 1 month ago
Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), a former Army Ranger and member of the House Armed Services Committee, plans to introduce the Cooperative Overseas Military Battlefield Advancement in Trauma (COMBAT) Care Act. The bill would authorize the defense secretary, in consultation with the Secretary of State, to establish a joint training and education program with foreign militaries to study lessons from overseas conflicts, including Ukraine, and apply them to battlefield trauma care for U.S. service members and veterans.
The bill is co-sponsored by Rep. Jeff Crank (R-Colo.) and is endorsed by the University of Colorado Anschutz. An identical provision was already included in both the House and Senate versions of the National Defense Authorization Act. The program would allow joint conferences, symposia, and professional exchanges among medical professionals. It builds on the Pentagon's Joint Trauma System, established in 2016 to improve battlefield trauma readiness and survival outcomes. Sponsors say continued research partnerships are needed as modern warfare evolves.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Jason Crow Portrayed favorably as a veteran lawmaker introducing constructive bipartisan legislation for troop welfare.
- Colorado Colorado is highlighted positively as home to the bill's bipartisan sponsors and an endorsing university.
- United States Armed Forces The bill aims to benefit U.S. service members and veterans through improved battlefield trauma care.
- United States The bill is framed as benefiting U.S. service members and veterans broadly.
- United States Senate Noted as having included the same provision in its NDAA version, a neutral procedural fact.
- Democratic Party (United States) Jason Crow's party affiliation is mentioned but the bill is bipartisan and not framed politically.
Related Events
Related Events
Related Events
Colorado State Senate: Which Party Wins Control in 2026
Leading:
98.5%
John Hickenlooper
Vol $989.4k
Colorado Senate Race: Margin of Victory
Leading:
92.1%
Hickenlooper, 18+ pts
Vol $3.1k
Colorado Senate Election: Voter Turnout Thresholds
Leading:
96%
Above 2.1M
Vol $0.20
CO-08 House winner?
Leading:
83.5%
Manny Rutinel
Vol $328.9k
Colorado’s 5th Congressional District House Race 2026
Leading:
58.5%
Jeff Crank
Vol $24.1k
Colorado’s 4th District House Race 2026
Leading:
62.5%
Lauren Boebert
Vol $44.3k
CO-06 House winner?
Leading:
98%
Jason Crow
Vol $22.6k
Colorado Governor Race: Margin of Victory
Leading:
95.4%
Weiser, 6+ pts
Vol $361.51