California’s 18th District House Race 2026
California’s 18th Congressional District, anchored in the Bay Area and stretching through parts of Santa Clara and surrounding counties, heads to the polls in November 2026 to elect its U.S. House representative. The seat has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, but redistricting shifts and candidate dynamics can reshape competitiveness. Primary contests and candidate filings will help clarify the field well before the general election.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often comes down to a handful of competitive or trending districts, and CA-18 offers a window into Bay Area political sentiment. Local economic conditions, housing costs, and tech-sector employment trends could shape voter turnout. The outcome also feeds into broader narratives about California’s role in national House majority math.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question markets isolate is binary: will the Democratic or Republican nominee win CA-18 in November 2026. This distills a multi-candidate primary process into a single partisan outcome, stripping away noise from local issues to focus purely on which party claims the seat. Traders are effectively weighing historical district lean against any emerging shifts in candidate strength or turnout patterns.
Related terms
Total Volume
$38.2k
Kalshi $1.4k · Polymarket $36.8k
Leading Market
Zoe Lofgren
Kalshi 95% · Polymarket 99%
Zoe Lofgren Volume
$22.6k
Kalshi $338.64 · Polymarket $22.3k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoe LofgrenDemocratic Party | 99.7¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Shane LewisRepublican Party | 1.3¢ | 7.0% |
|
3.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
In the News
Former Santa Clara County undersheriff pleads guilty in bribery scandal
PN Team • 1 month ago
Former Santa Clara County undersheriff Rick Sung pleaded guilty Monday to two felony bribery counts as part of a plea deal ahead of a scheduled retrial, the county District Attorney's Office announced. A previous trial ended in a mistrial after a hung jury. Sung, who was second in command under former Sheriff Laurie Smith, was accused of leveraging rarely issued concealed weapon permits in exchange for benefits including a promise of 200 Apple iPads and access to a luxury suite and tickets at SAP Center, home of the San Jose Sharks. A related bribery charge against businessman Harpreet Chadha, who held the suite license, was dismissed at the hearing.
The plea closes out an eight-year investigation that began after a tip about an unusually large contribution to a committee backing Smith's 2018 re-election. The probe produced six convictions, including former Captain James Jensen, and led to Smith's 2022 resignation. Sung must permanently surrender his California peace officer certification and complete 400 hours of community service.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Santa Clara County, California The county's sheriff's office is central to a multi-year bribery scandal involving top officials.
- Law enforcement The scandal involving a former undersheriff and sheriff reflects poorly on law enforcement generally.
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California drops felony charges against Stanford protest students
PN Team • 1 month ago
The California attorney general's office has dropped all felony charges against five Stanford University students prosecuted over a June 2024 campus protest against Israel's actions in Gaza. The students were among 12 who barricaded themselves in the university president's office for an hour, demanding Stanford divest from companies tied to Israel. They had faced felony conspiracy to trespass and vandalism charges, first announced in April 2025 by Santa Clara County District Attorney Jeff Rosen.
Five students went to trial in early 2026, which ended in a hung jury. A judge later ordered Rosen to recuse himself over a conflict of interest, after evidence emerged he was using the case to fundraise for his reelection campaign. The state attorney general's office then took over and reached a resolution dropping all charges in exchange for 100 hours of community service and roughly $50,000 in restitution. Three students who had earlier accepted plea deals will also have their convictions overturned. Civil rights groups, including CAIR's San Francisco Bay Area chapter, welcomed the outcome, arguing the felony charges were disproportionate to the protest activity.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Santa Clara County, California Santa Clara County is tied to the DA's ethically compromised prosecution and forced recusal, reflecting negatively on local governance.
- Israel Israel is mentioned as the subject of the protest's grievance, a tangential negative association.
- California California's attorney general's office is mentioned mainly in its administrative role of dropping charges, a neutral-to-mixed reference.
- San Francisco Bay Area San Francisco Bay Area is mentioned only as the location of CAIR's chapter, a neutral factual reference.
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In the News
San Jose marks 25th anniversary of Sept. 11 with tribute to victims and first responders
PN Team • 2 months ago
San Jose held a Patriot Day ceremony marking 25 years since the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, honoring those who died and the first responders who risked their lives that day. The commemoration began with a procession of San Jose Fire, San Jose Police, and Santa Clara County Sheriff's personnel marching from St. Joseph Cathedral Basilica to Fire Station No. 1, led by a pipe and drum band and vintage fire vehicles carrying local officials including Rep. Zoe Lofgren, Mayor Matt Mahan, and other city and county leaders.
Assistant Fire Chief James Dobson led a "last alarm" bell tribute to fallen first responders. Speakers, including Lofgren and Santa Clara County Supervisor Otto Lee, emphasized national unity after the attacks and the ongoing health struggles of responders. Lee, without naming him directly, criticized President Trump's disputed claim that firefighters carried him from an unstable building near Ground Zero, an account contested by a former fire official. Fire Chief Robert Sapien Jr. said the department remains committed to honoring 9/11's victims through its annual bell ceremony.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's disputed 9/11 claim is criticized by a local official as contested and inaccurate, casting him in an unfavorable light.
- Zoe Lofgren Lofgren is portrayed positively as a participant and speaker emphasizing unity at the commemoration.
- United States House of Representatives Lofgren's role as a U.S. Representative is mentioned but the organization itself is only tangentially referenced.
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Elections
San Diego County releases voter guide for November general election
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
California voters head to the polls in November to decide statewide and local races alongside 14 ballot propositions, including a closely watched "billionaires tax" measure and a recall-process reform. San Diego County's voter guide outlines a packed slate of contests, with voter pamphlets mailed in late September and ballots beginning to arrive October 5.
Key federal races include five competitive U.S. House districts (48–52), pitting incumbents and challengers from both parties after redistricting reshaped several seats. State Senate and Assembly races feature multiple incumbents defending seats, while the California State Board of Equalization's District 4 race pits a local water official against a sitting state senator.
Locally, San Diego County voters will also choose county supervisors, school board members, and city officials across numerous municipalities including San Diego, Chula Vista, Carlsbad, Escondido, Oceanside, and others, alongside mayoral races and special district seats covering healthcare, water, and community college boards. The wide-ranging ballot reflects a highly competitive election cycle across Southern California.
Sources:
Sentiment
- California California is the backdrop state for the statewide and local election coverage, mentioned factually.
- California's 48th congressional district District 48 is listed among the five competitive U.S. House districts in a neutral factual mention.
- California's 49th congressional district District 49 is listed among the five competitive U.S. House districts in a neutral factual mention.
- California's 50th congressional district District 50 is listed among the five competitive U.S. House districts in a neutral factual mention.
- California's 51st congressional district District 51 is listed among the five competitive U.S. House districts in a neutral factual mention.
- California's 52nd congressional district District 52 is listed among the five competitive U.S. House districts in a neutral factual mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as one of the parties with candidates in competitive races.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as one of the parties with candidates in competitive races.
- San Diego San Diego is named as one of the municipalities holding local elections, a neutral factual mention.
- San Diego County, California San Diego County is the central subject of the article, providing a neutral voter guide.
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Elections
AIPAC-backed spending fuels California special election between Wahab and Hernandez
PN Team • 2 months ago
Voters in California's 14th congressional district head to the polls Tuesday to fill the seat vacated by former Rep. Eric Swalwell, who resigned amid sexual assault allegations he denies. State Sen. Aisha Wahab, a progressive who has called for ending U.S. military aid to Israel, faces Melissa Hernandez, a moderate Democrat and Bay Area Rapid Transit Board president. With two Democrats on the ballot, the seat will stay in Democratic hands. Wahab led the June 16 primary by more than 20 points and remains the favorite, though Hernandez has more than doubled her in fundraising.
The race has drawn heavy outside spending tied to AIPAC's influence in Democratic primaries. AIPAC's United Democracy Project and allied group Bold America have together spent roughly $3.7 million opposing Wahab and backing Hernandez, part of about $4.1 million in total outside spending on the race. Wahab has drawn counter-support from pro-Palestinian PAC American Priorities and J Street Action Fund, which accused AIPAC of trying to "buy a Democratic primary." Wahab has emphasized affordability and civil rights, while Hernandez has focused on public safety and cost of living.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Eric Swalwell Described as having resigned amid sexual assault allegations, a clearly damaging reference.
- Aisha Wahab Portrayed as the progressive frontrunner leading in the primary despite facing heavy outside spending against her, a generally favorable framing.
- San Francisco Bay Area Mentioned as the region where Hernandez serves in transit governance, a neutral geographic detail.
- Democratic Party (United States) Noted as the shared party of both candidates in a factual, non-evaluative way.
- California Referenced as the state where the district and election are located, purely factual.
- Israel Mentioned in context of U.S. military aid debate, a neutral policy reference.
- United States Armed Forces Referenced only as the subject of Wahab's policy stance on ending aid, a neutral factual mention.
- United States Congress Mentioned as the body the seat belongs to, purely factual.
- United States House of Representatives The article concerns a race to fill a House seat, a neutral procedural reference.
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Elections
Wahab defeats AIPAC-backed Hernandez in California special election runoff
PN Team • 2 months ago
Progressive Aisha Wahab has won the special election runoff in California's 14th Congressional District, defeating moderate Melissa Hernandez to fill the remainder of former Rep. Eric Swalwell's term through January. The Associated Press called the race two days after polls closed, with Wahab taking 53.1% of the vote to Hernandez's 46.9%. The margin narrowed sharply from Wahab's double-digit primary lead after AIPAC's United Democracy Project and allied groups spent more than $2.5 million since August boosting Hernandez and attacking Wahab, largely on local issues like public safety rather than Israel policy. Wahab, a state senator, will become the first Afghan American in Congress, having earlier become the first Afghan American elected to any U.S. public office when she won a Hayward City Council seat in 2018; she said the result shows her district "cannot be bought."
Wahab has been critical of Israel's actions in Gaza but did not center the issue in her campaign; she has also championed housing affordability and previously wrote a caste-discrimination bill vetoed by Gov. Gavin Newsom. She drew support from labor unions, the state Democratic Party, and J Street, while Hernandez, a BART director, was backed by police unions, AIPAC-aligned groups, and several Jewish Democratic members of Congress. Wahab succeeds Swalwell, who resigned in April amid sexual assault and harassment allegations he denies; federal agents recently seized his devices at a San Francisco airport and searched his D.C. home as investigations continue. Wahab and Hernandez will face off again in November for a full term beginning in 2027, in a district reshaped by redistricting to include part of Hernandez's former mayoral base in Dublin.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Eric Swalwell Swalwell is described as having resigned amid sexual assault and harassment allegations, with federal agents seizing his devices, a strongly negative portrayal.
- Aisha Wahab Wahab is portrayed favorably as a barrier-breaking winner who resisted heavy outside spending and champions housing affordability.
- Democratic Party (United States) The state Democratic Party's support for Wahab is mentioned as part of her coalition, reflecting neutrally-to-mildly favorably on the party.
- Gavin Newsom Newsom is mentioned only for vetoing Wahab's caste-discrimination bill, a mildly negative factual detail.
- Governor of California Governor Newsom's office is referenced only in that he vetoed Wahab's caste-discrimination bill, a minor negative-tinged factual mention.
- California California is the setting of the election, mentioned factually without reputational implication.
- Israel Israel is mentioned only as a policy topic Wahab has criticized, without direct reputational framing of the country itself.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned factually as the body Wahab will join, a neutral procedural reference.
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Elections
Marin GOP chair retracts dead-voter fraud claim but continues probing rolls
PN Team • 1 month ago
John Turnacliff, chairman of the Marin County Republicans, has publicly retracted his claim that 73 dead people voted in the November Proposition 50 special election, which redrew California's congressional maps to favor Democrats. Speaking at a Marin County Board of Supervisors meeting, Turnacliff apologized to the board and to Registrar of Voters Natalie Adona, saying he could not substantiate the claim after further research.
The county had earlier reviewed the list Turnacliff's group submitted and found at most five deceased individuals on it, with no record of votes cast in their names after death. After buying subscriptions to Ancestry.com and another records database, Turnacliff found many people on his list were actually alive and said he "jumped the gun." He said he apologized to maintain a workable relationship with the registrar's office, though he stressed his retraction was not an admission that voter fraud doesn't exist. Turnacliff, who has scrutinized Marin's voter rolls since the 2020 election, said his group intends to keep investigating other alleged irregularities.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) A Republican county chair's retraction of an unsubstantiated voter fraud claim reflects poorly on the party's credibility on this issue.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only as the beneficiary of the redrawn maps, without direct portrayal.
- Marin County, California Marin County is the setting for the controversy but is not itself portrayed negatively, aside from an administrative dispute.
- California California is mentioned only factually as the location of the redistricting measure.
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Elections
California State Senate Race Becomes Costliest of the Cycle
PN Team • 1 day ago
A Los Angeles-area state Senate race between labor-backed West Hollywood City Councilmember John Erickson and business-supported media consultant Brian Goldsmith has become California's most expensive state Senate general election contest this cycle, driven by heavy outside spending. The district, covering Malibu, Santa Monica, the Pacific Palisades, Beverly Hills and West Hollywood, carries a 12-year term limit as both seek to succeed termed-out Sen. Ben Allen.
Business groups have targeted Erickson with attack spending, while tech-linked donors and Goldsmith's own personal funds have boosted his campaign; labor groups opposing Goldsmith have spent far less. Nancy Pelosi recently endorsed Goldsmith. Ads focus on affordability, housing, public safety and partisan loyalty, reflecting a broader business-labor struggle over California Democratic Party direction.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Referenced as the party whose internal business-labor struggle frames the race.
- California Referenced factually as the state where the race occurs.
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Congress
Housing divide defines Democratic race to succeed Pelosi in San Francisco
PN Team • 2 months ago
The contest to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in San Francisco has become a proxy fight over housing policy between two Democrats who each claim the progressive mantle. State Sen. Scott Wiener, an "abundance" and YIMBY advocate who authored permit-streamlining legislation, faces San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, who has Pelosi's endorsement and has opposed several major development and zoning changes in her district, citing tenant displacement and small-business concerns. Median one-bedroom rents in the city have topped $4,000, intensifying the debate over whether state intervention or local control best addresses the shortage.
The race also touches on Gaza policy, corporate PAC money, and campaign conduct, including a now-defunct AI chatbot mocking Chan that Wiener's campaign disavowed after backlash from Pelosi and other Democrats. Voters who backed a third primary candidate, Saikat Chakrabarti, remain a swing bloc heading into November, with the outcome likely to signal how San Francisco Democrats balance progressive identity against pro-housing "abundance" politics nationally.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Scott Wiener Wiener is tied to a mocking AI chatbot controversy that drew backlash before his campaign disavowed it, casting a negative light despite his policy advocacy.
- San Francisco San Francisco is depicted amid a contentious housing crisis and political divide, a mildly negative but largely factual portrayal.
- California California is mentioned only as the state context for legislation and governance.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is mentioned as the context of the primary race without specific praise or criticism.
- United States Congress Referenced only via the House Speaker context, a neutral factual mention.
- United States House of Representatives The seat being contested is a House seat, mentioned factually.
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Politics
California limits undercover ‘Perkins operation’ stings against youth
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed Assembly Bill 1905, which restricts law enforcement from using "Perkins operations" against most people under age 26 who allegedly committed a crime at 17 or younger. These undercover stings place agents posing as incarcerated people in jail cells with suspects to elicit incriminating statements, a tactic the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 1990 does not count as custodial interrogation, leaving it exempt from prior protections for minors. The new law, authored by Assemblymember Nick Schultz, closes that gap, with exceptions when someone's life may be at risk. It takes effect January 1.
A CalMatters investigation found the practice widespread across several California counties, often involving false evidence ploys, recording devices, and paid operatives who posed as violent gang members. Ten related cases challenging convictions are pending before the California Supreme Court. Defense attorneys and some lawmakers argue the tactic is coercive and risks false confessions, disproportionately affecting Black and Latino defendants, while law enforcement groups, including the California State Sheriffs' Association, opposed the bill as a loss of investigative tools. The measure passed largely along party lines.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Law enforcement Law enforcement's use of coercive undercover tactics disproportionately affecting minority defendants and opposition to reform casts it in a negative light.
- Gavin Newsom Gavin Newsom is portrayed favorably for signing a reform law protecting minors from coercive interrogation tactics.
- California California is the setting and subject of this state-level legislative reform, a neutral contextual mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) The measure passed largely along party lines implying Democratic support, but this is a neutral factual note.
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