California’s 31st Congressional District: Who Will Win the 2026 House Race
California’s 31st Congressional District, covering parts of the San Gabriel Valley in Los Angeles County, heads to voters in the November 2026 midterms to choose its U.S. House representative. The district has leaned Democratic in recent elections, reflecting the broader partisan makeup of the region. The race will help determine which party controls the narrowly divided House of Representatives.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House hinges on dozens of competitive and lean-leaning districts across the country, and CA-31 factors into that national arithmetic. Local turnout patterns, candidate strength, and shifting voter sentiment in Southern California could signal broader trends shaping the 2026 midterm landscape. The outcome will affect representation for one of California’s most populous inland communities.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate contest into a binary question: will the Democratic or Republican nominee win CA-31? This isolates partisan outcome from the noise of vote margins or turnout specifics, letting traders focus purely on which party ultimately prevails. It effectively distills broader assumptions about midterm momentum and district-level partisanship into a single tradeable proposition ahead of Election Day.
Total Volume
$106k
Kalshi $900.81 · Polymarket $105.1k
Leading Market
Gil Cisneros
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 98%
Gil Cisneros Volume
$44.7k
Kalshi $549.68 · Polymarket $44.1k
Gil Cisneros 24h Change
-1.30%
Kalshi -1.30% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil CisnerosDemocratic Party | 98.8¢ | 7.0% | , trade Gil Cisneros on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 98.0¢ | 5% | , trade Gil Cisneros on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Eric ChingRepublican Party | 2.4¢ | 7.0% | , trade Eric Ching on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Eric Ching on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gil CisnerosDemocratic Party | $44,698.42 | ||
| Eric ChingRepublican Party | $61,343.47 |