California’s 26th District House Race 2026
California’s 26th Congressional District, covering parts of Ventura and Los Angeles counties, will hold its House election in November 2026. The seat has been a competitive battleground in recent cycles, with shifting voter coalitions in suburban and exurban communities shaping outcomes. Candidates from both major parties are expected to compete for the district’s House seat.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House of Representatives often comes down to a small number of swing districts, and CA-26 has historically been one of them. The result will help determine which party sets the legislative agenda for the remainder of the decade. Local economic conditions and national political trends both factor into how voters in the district respond.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders face is binary: which party’s candidate wins the district’s House seat. This isolates partisan control from the broader mechanics of the race, such as turnout patterns or candidate fundraising, distilling the contest into a single tradeable outcome. Shifts in sentiment ahead of the election will likely show up as movement in how this question is traded, reflecting evolving expectations about the broader national political environment.
Related terms
Total Volume
$63.2k
Kalshi $2.1k · Polymarket $61.1k
Leading Market
Jacqui Irwin
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 97%
Jacqui Irwin Volume
$44.5k
Kalshi $440.73 · Polymarket $44.1k
Jacqui Irwin 24h Change
-1.40%
Kalshi -1.40% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacqui IrwinDemocratic Party | 97.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade Jacqui Irwin on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 97.0¢ | 5% | , trade Jacqui Irwin on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Sam GallucciRepublican Party | 4.6¢ | 7.0% | , trade Sam Gallucci on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Sam Gallucci on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacqui IrwinDemocratic Party | $44,496.86 | ||
| Sam GallucciRepublican Party | $18,692.75 |