Who Will Win California’s 28th Congressional District in 2026?
California’s 28th Congressional District, covering parts of Los Angeles County including Burbank and Glendale, heads to voters in November 2026. The seat is held by Democratic Rep. Judy Chu, a longtime incumbent in a district that leans heavily Democratic. The race will determine the district’s representative in the U.S. House for the next term.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often hinges on dozens of competitive races across the country, and down-ballot contests like this one factor into the broader national picture. Incumbency, turnout patterns, and local political shifts in Los Angeles County all play a role in shaping the outcome. The result will help define California’s congressional delegation heading into the next session.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces the contest to a binary question: which party’s nominee wins the seat. Traders are effectively weighing incumbency strength against any signs of a competitive challenge in a historically safe district. Because the race lacks the volatility of a true toss-up, movement in either direction would signal unusual shifts in local sentiment.
Related terms
Total Volume
$59.2k
Kalshi $3.8k · Polymarket $55.4k
Leading Market
Judy Chu
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 98%
Judy Chu Volume
$25.8k
Kalshi $2.2k · Polymarket $23.6k
Judy Chu 24h Change
-1.60%
Kalshi -1.60% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Judy ChuDemocratic Party | 99.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Judy Chu on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Judy Chu on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| April A. VerlatoRepublican Party | — | — | — | 2.0¢ | 5% | , trade April A. Verlato on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| April VerlatoRepublican Party | 2.8¢ | 7.0% | , trade April Verlato on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Judy ChuDemocratic Party | $25,808.66 | ||
| April A. VerlatoRepublican Party | $31,818.50 | No market | |
| April VerlatoRepublican Party | $1,553.70 | No market |