California’s 11th District House Race Heads Toward 2026 Showdown
California’s 11th Congressional District, anchored in San Francisco’s East Bay including Oakland and surrounding communities, will hold its House election on November 3, 2026. The seat has long leaned Democratic, making the primary contest often more consequential than the general election. Candidates are positioning early as the district’s political landscape takes shape ahead of next year’s vote.
Why Markets Are Watching
Representation for this Bay Area district carries weight on housing policy, tech regulation, and transportation issues central to the region. Whoever wins will help shape California’s delegation in a closely divided Congress. Local voters and national observers alike are watching how the district’s priorities translate into Washington influence.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces a crowded field to a single question: who ultimately wins the House seat. Rather than tracking campaign momentum day to day, it isolates the binary outcome traders care about most — final victory. This framing lets participants weigh candidate strength, name recognition, and district dynamics as a single resolvable event rather than a shifting narrative.
Related terms
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United States House of Representatives -
United States Congress -
Affordable housing -
San Francisco -
San Francisco Bay Area -
Oakland, California -
Scott Wiener -
East Bay -
Connie Chan (politician) -
California's 11th congressional district -
Technology
Total Volume
$330.5k
Kalshi $317.3k · Polymarket $13.1k
Leading Market
Scott Wiener
Kalshi 80% · Polymarket 78%
Scott Wiener Volume
$255.3k
Kalshi $251.8k · Polymarket $3.6k
Scott Wiener 24h Change
-20.00%
Kalshi +1.00% · Polymarket -20.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Wiener | 81.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Scott Wiener on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 80.0¢ | 5% | , trade Scott Wiener on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Connie Chan | 21.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Connie Chan on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 25.0¢ | 5% | , trade Connie Chan on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Wiener | $255,334.40 | ||
| Connie Chan | $75,117.03 |