California’s 16th District House Race
California’s 16th Congressional District, covering parts of Silicon Valley and the South Bay, will elect a new U.S. House representative in the 2026 midterms. The seat sits in a heavily Democratic region, with the party primary and the top-two general election structure shaping which candidates ultimately advance. Local political dynamics and name recognition among contenders will play a major role in the outcome.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House majority in 2026 hinges on dozens of races like this one, even in districts considered safe for one party. Who represents CA-16 affects committee assignments, policy priorities for the Bay Area tech corridor, and the broader balance of power in Congress. Primary outcomes here can also signal shifts within the Democratic coalition itself.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
Contracts here reduce a multi-candidate field into a binary question: which party, and ultimately which individual, secures the seat. Because the district leans strongly Democratic, the real signal traders track is less about party control and more about which specific candidate emerges from a crowded field. This makes the market a proxy for intraparty dynamics rather than a genuine partisan contest.
Related terms
Total Volume
$46.7k
Kalshi $11.3k · Polymarket $35.4k
Leading Market
Sam Liccardo
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 99%
Sam Liccardo Volume
$39k
Kalshi $10.6k · Polymarket $28.3k
Sam Liccardo 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi -0.40% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LiccardoDemocratic Party | 98.7¢ | 7.0% | , trade Sam Liccardo on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Sam Liccardo on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Peter Sundin SouléRepublican Party | 2.5¢ | 7.0% | , trade Peter Sundin Soulé on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 3.0¢ | 5% | , trade Peter Sundin Soulé on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LiccardoDemocratic Party | $38,956.83 | ||
| Peter Sundin SouléRepublican Party | $7,772.36 |