Elections
California’s 25th District House Race 2026
California’s 25th Congressional District, covering parts of the Antelope Valley and Santa Clarita area, heads to voters in November 2026 to elect its U.S. House representative. The district has shifted between parties in recent cycles, making it one of the more competitive seats in the state’s delegation. Candidates from both major parties are expected to compete for the open contest.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often comes down to a handful of swing districts, and CA-25 has a history of flipping between Democratic and Republican hands. The outcome here could influence which party holds the majority and sets the legislative agenda in Washington. Local economic and demographic shifts in the district add further uncertainty to the race.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces a multi-candidate contest to a binary question: will the seat go Democratic or Republican. That framing isolates partisan control as the key variable, stripping away the noise of individual candidate profiles or local issues. Traders are effectively weighing district-level partisan trends against broader national political momentum heading into the midterms.
Related terms
Total Volume
$35.7k
Kalshi $2.1k · Polymarket $33.6k
Leading Market
Raul Ruiz
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 98%
Raul Ruiz Volume
$33.2k
Kalshi $1.4k · Polymarket $31.8k
Raul Ruiz 24h Change
+0.80%
Kalshi +0.80% · Polymarket 0.00%
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Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul RuizDemocratic Party | 98.2¢ | 7.0% | , trade Raul Ruiz on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 98.0¢ | 5% | , trade Raul Ruiz on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Joe MalesRepublican Party | 4.1¢ | 7.0% | , trade Joe Males on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Joe Males on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raul RuizDemocratic Party | $33,243.32 | ||
| Joe MalesRepublican Party | $2,451.96 |