Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

With the 2026 midterms days away, Arkansas Democrats are betting that high prices, tariff fallout and anti-incumbent anger can make inroads in one of the nation's most conservative states. Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner, a farmer who closed her family operation amid rising costs, is framing her campaign as "Arkansas First" rather than partisan. In the 2nd Congressional District, Chris Jones, backed by the DCCC and national Democratic figures, is challenging longtime Rep. French Hill. Forecasters still rate both races solidly Republican, but Democrats point to rising Black voter turnout regionally and widespread economic frustration as reasons the contests could be closer than expected.

In deep-red Arkansas, Democrats are betting that anti-incumbent frustration and high prices can make the state's Senate and 2nd Congressional District races more competitive than forecasters expect. Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner, a former farmer, is running an "Arkansas First" campaign focused on economic pain from tariffs and trade policy, while Chris Jones, backed by the DCCC and national Democratic figures, is challenging longtime Rep. French Hill. Both races remain rated solidly or likely Republican by the Cook Political Report, but Republicans have spent heavily to defend the seats. Democrats also point to rising Black voter turnout across Southern states as a potential factor shaping midterm outcomes.

U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures told the Alabama Democratic Conference that his reelection bid in Alabama's 2nd Congressional District hinges on turnout in Montgomery County and surrounding Black Belt counties. A U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April weakened part of the Voting Rights Act, allowing Alabama to revert to a 2023 legislative map that removed Figures' hometown of Mobile from the district and extended it into the heavily Republican Wiregrass region. The district's Black voting age population dropped from about 49 percent to just under 40 percent, and the seat would have favored Donald Trump by 14 points in 2024.

Figures, who won the seat in 2024 with 54.6 percent of the vote, faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques. He said Montgomery County, roughly 31 percent of registered voters, could make up 40 percent of turnout with strong mobilization. National Democrats have launched a six-figure ad buy, while Trump and Senate candidate Barry Moore have urged Republicans to turn out for Marques, calling the seat critical to the House majority.

Democrats have added Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, held by Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, to the DCCC's "red to blue" program targeting vulnerable GOP incumbents. Challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate, is betting that voter anger over the economy, health care costs and gas prices under President Trump can overcome Steil's fundraising edge and name recognition after eight years in office. Steil, who succeeded Paul Ryan in a district with deep manufacturing losses, has won all four of his races by at least 9 points and entered August with a large cash advantage over Berman.

The race illustrates broader national trends: Trump-aligned PACs have spent tens of millions on House ads since September, with the vast majority going toward defending districts Trump carried in 2024 rather than targeting Democratic-held seats, signaling Republicans are largely on defense this cycle. Democrats hope a strong enough "blue wave" could flip even well-funded, longtime incumbents like Steil, though party officials on both sides say an upset remains a steep climb for Berman.

Democrats are targeting Republican Rep. Bryan Steil in Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, adding it to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "red to blue" program as part of a broader effort to widen the House map ahead of the midterms. Challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate, is leaning on his working-class background and voter frustration over the economy, health care costs and gas prices to make the race competitive in a district Republicans have held for three decades, previously represented by Paul Ryan.

Steil, seeking a fifth term, has outraised and outspent Berman roughly 2-to-1 and enters with a large cash advantage. Trump-aligned groups No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC have poured tens of millions into House races nationally, with the vast majority going to districts Trump won in 2024, underscoring Republicans' largely defensive posture this cycle. Party officials on both sides acknowledge Berman faces long odds against Steil's name recognition, though Democrats hope a large enough anti-Trump wave could still flip the seat.

Democrats have added Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, held by Republican Rep. Bryan Steil since 2019, to the DCCC's "red to blue" target list, boosting resources for challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate. Democrats hope voter anger over Trump's approval rating, healthcare costs, gas prices and tariffs could turn a modest "blue wave" into a bigger upset, though officials in both parties consider it a long shot given Steil's name recognition and fundraising edge.

Steil and allied groups have outspent Berman roughly 2-1, entering August with $6.3 million cash on hand versus about $152,000 for Berman. Nationally, Trump-aligned groups No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC have spent more than $84 million on House ads since September, with 96% concentrated in districts Trump carried in 2024 — a sign Republicans are playing defense but retain a financial cushion. Steil, seen as a possible 2028 Senate contender, has won his prior four races by at least 9 points. The district, anchored by Racine, Kenosha and Janesville, leans Republican but has grown more competitive under redrawn maps.

Democrats are targeting Wisconsin Rep. Bryan Steil's seat as part of a broader push to expand the House battlefield ahead of the midterms. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, held by Republicans for more than three decades, to its "red to blue" program in September, boosting resources for challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate running on a working-class message and voter frustration over the economy, healthcare costs and tariffs.

Steil, a fifth-term incumbent and former aide to Paul Ryan, has significantly outraised Berman and enjoys strong name recognition, and Republicans and Democrats alike say beating him will be difficult despite the district growing more competitive under 2022 redistricting. Trump-aligned PACs have poured tens of millions into House ad spending nationally, overwhelmingly in Trump-won districts, underscoring Republicans' defensive posture this cycle even as they retain a financial edge. The race is seen as a bellwether for how large a Democratic wave might materialize in 2026.

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Luján will face Republican Larry Marker on the Nov. 3 general election ballot for New Mexico's U.S. Senate seat, a six-year term paying $174,000 annually. Luján won his primary decisively, while the state Republican Party failed to field an official candidate, prompting Marker, a Roswell oil and gas businessman, to mount a write-in campaign that drew nearly as many votes as Luján's primary opponent.

Luján, in office since 2020 and a veteran of New Mexico politics, cites the cost of living and water access as top priorities, touts legislation like the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act, and has criticized Trump administration policies on tariffs, Medicaid and immigration enforcement. Marker, making his first bid for statewide office after previous unsuccessful runs, is focused on stabilizing Social Security, reducing federal debt, and supporting oil, gas and ranching industries, while expressing measured support for Trump's agenda. Republicans haven't won statewide in New Mexico in a decade, but Marker points to shifting voter registration trends as reason for optimism.