Texas 8th District House Race: Who Will Win?

One year after Gov. Greg Abbott signed Texas's mid-decade "One Big Beautiful Map," redrawing five congressional districts at President Trump's urging, polling suggests Republicans may not be reaping the gains they expected. The redistricting combined Black-majority districts in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth and paired two Austin Democrats, while shifting South Texas seats to favor the GOP, aiming for a net five-seat pickup for Republicans nationally.

Recent Texas Southern University polling shows Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar leading in District 28 and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez ahead in District 34, despite both districts being redrawn to favor Trump. In District 15, Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz trails Tejano musician Bobby Pulido despite a district redrawn heavily in Trump's favor. District 35, created by merging two Austin Democratic incumbents' territory, remains a contested open seat where House Speaker Mike Johnson recently campaigned for Republican Carlos De La Cruz against Democrat Johnny Garcia.

The shifting numbers, attributed partly to fallout from immigration enforcement, tariffs and inflation, complicate Republican hopes of using redistricting to offset historic midterm losses for the party controlling the White House.

Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder says the party has erased its debt and built a $30 million coordinated campaign since he took over in March 2025, up from a $2 million effort under his predecessor. He credits a restructuring that moved staff out of Austin and into Dallas, Houston, Eagle Pass, and Amarillo, along with recruiting more than 1,000 precinct chairs, as key to preparing for competitive races ahead of the 2026 midterms and the 2030 redistricting cycle.

Scudder also addressed the contested Senate primary won by State Representative James Talarico over U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, arguing Talarico now has a party infrastructure Beto O'Rourke lacked in his narrow 2018 loss. On data centers, he accused Governor Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton of feigning opposition while Abbott's administration has committed roughly $1 billion in taxpayer incentives to the industry, calling their posture insincere and warning it could hurt Republican turnout in rural Texas, where the issue has become politically sensitive.

Early voting began Monday in Texas ahead of the Nov. 3 election and runs through Oct. 30, with Houston voters citing varied priorities from corruption to human rights as reasons for their choices. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Democratic voters currently hold an enthusiasm edge, with 72% saying they are certain to vote compared with 65% of Republicans. The same poll found a growing share of Americans struggling to afford basics like gas, health care, housing and groceries since February; the share calling gas unaffordable jumped from 28% to 71%, as national average gas prices have topped $4 a gallon for a record 158 days this year.
Texas early voting kicks off as polling shows a Democratic enthusiasm edge and rising affordability worries over gas and essentials.

Texas Republicans are moving to revive Senate Bill 7, a sweeping elections measure that died over the weekend after Democratic lawmakers staged a walkout to deny the House a quorum before a midnight deadline. Gov. Greg Abbott is expected to call a special session to pass the bill and possibly other stalled conservative priorities, including a ban on transgender athletes in girls' and women's sports.

The bill would cut polling hours, empower partisan poll watchers, ban drive-through and 24-hour voting, and includes a contested provision making it easier for judges to void election results over unproven fraud claims. Democrats objected especially to new limits on early Sunday voting, a key day for Black churchgoers, though one GOP negotiator called that provision a drafting error. Abbott has threatened to veto legislative salaries in retaliation and invoked the 2013 Wendy Davis filibuster, which Republicans overturned in a special session. President Biden urged Democrats nationally to intensify voting rights efforts as Congress prepares to debate federal elections legislation.

Three seats on Texas's new 15th Court of Appeals are up for election in November, marking the first time voters will weigh in since Gov. Greg Abbott appointed the court's inaugural members in 2024. Created by the Legislature in 2023, the court handles civil cases involving the state, challenges to state laws' constitutionality, and business-court appeals before they reach the Texas Supreme Court. Winners will serve six-year terms.

Primaries were uncontested, leaving one Republican incumbent facing one Democrat in each race: Chief Justice Scott Brister vs. Jerry Zimmerer, Place 2's Scott Field vs. Tom Baker, and Place 3's April Farris vs. Marc Meyer. All three incumbents hold substantial fundraising leads, backed heavily by Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC and other business and legal interests. Since taking the bench, the Republican-majority court has ruled on marijuana policy, abortion, and campaign finance, at times drawing criticism from Attorney General Ken Paxton. The outcomes will shape the ideological direction of a court with broad authority over state-related litigation.

Early voting opened Monday in Texas ahead of the Nov. 3 election, running through Oct. 30. Reader responses gathered from Austin, Houston, Dallas and San Antonio, mostly from Democrats, reflected a mix of hope and wariness about the state's political trajectory, with several citing excitement over candidates while cautioning against being "burned before" by past disappointments. Even some Republican respondents acknowledged a desire for change after decades of GOP control in the state. The sentiment underscores competitive statewide and down-ballot races being watched closely for signs of shifting political dynamics in traditionally red Texas, a factor relevant to broader election forecasting and prediction markets tracking state-level partisan trends.

The 2026 race for Texas Agriculture Commissioner features Republican Nate Sheets against Democrat Clayton Tucker, along with Libertarian candidate Kelly. Incumbent Sid Miller lost his primary bid to Sheets, a businessman and co-founder of Nature Nate's Honey who is backed by Gov. Greg Abbott and other prominent Texas Republicans. Sheets identifies with the MAHA movement and has focused his platform on clean food production, curbing tax breaks for data centers, rural economic development and stricter employment verification requirements.

Tucker, a rancher and Texas Farmers Union secretary with a background in trade justice advocacy, ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. Her platform emphasizes protecting family farms from data center expansion, lowering food costs, regulating chemicals like PFAS, and expanding hemp farming and agricultural co-ops. Libertarian candidate Kelly, an ecology consultant and lecturer, calls for cutting regulations, auditing the agriculture department and protecting property rights. The office oversees agribusiness regulation, rural economic development and disaster relief for the state's roughly 230,000 farms.

Texas heads into a Nov. 3 election featuring high-profile statewide races, including Gov. Greg Abbott's contest against Democrat Gina Hinojosa and a U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Additional battles for congressional and state legislature seats are also on the ballot.

Voters interviewed at the State Fair of Texas in Dallas offered mixed predictions about the state's political trajectory. Many expressed confidence Texas will remain reliably Republican, while others, pointing to shifts in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, suggested the state could be inching toward competitive territory. Several voters said economic concerns, particularly persistent inflation and reduced disposable income, are shaping their views more than party allegiance. Some cited dissatisfaction with the current presidential administration as a driving factor in their outlook.

The races are being watched closely as indicators of whether traditionally red Texas is becoming more competitive, with economic sentiment likely to play a significant role in turnout and outcomes across the state's marquee contests.

Incumbent Republican Dawn Buckingham faces Democrat Benjamin Flores and Libertarian Neill Snider in the 2026 race for Texas Land Commissioner, the elected official who oversees the General Land Office (GLO). The agency manages 13 million acres of state land, the Permanent School Fund that helps fund K-12 schools, disaster relief distribution, veterans' land and home loan programs, and the Alamo.

Buckingham, unopposed in the GOP primary, has emphasized oil and gas development, border enforcement efforts including the Jocelyn Initiative, and defense of the Alamo against "woke" reinterpretations; she has drawn endorsements from President Trump and numerous state legislators. Flores, who switched from the governor's race, opposes using GLO resources for immigration enforcement, opposes school vouchers, and has proposed land swaps for affordable housing and faster disaster-response contracting. Snider favors reducing taxes by maximizing or selling state land profits and increasing GLO transparency. The office remains under scrutiny following past discrimination findings tied to Hurricane Harvey relief, later reversed by federal reviewers, and a controversy over the Alamo Trust's Indigenous Peoples' Day social media post.

The Houston Chronicle's editorial "Thumbs" column took aim at several local and state political stories this week. It criticized Chris Brown, Mayor John Whitmire's senior advisor for financial integrity, for swiping into work only a handful of times over nearly two years while earning a six-figure salary; Brown defended himself by calling his work "project- and output-based." The column praised Whitmire for personally funding the installation of Pride banners on Westheimer Boulevard, a response to last year's removal of a rainbow crosswalk in Montrose under pressure from Gov. Greg Abbott.

The piece also noted Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican Senate nominee, reportedly told a private gathering that the Trump-led GOP convention hurt Republican candidates, a claim his campaign denies; Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in the primary, called it a "self-inflicted wound." Other items touched on a Houston Astros playoff berth, writer Bryan Washington's MacArthur "genius grant," and Sen. Ted Cruz's bipartisan Protect College Sports Act.