Oregon’s 4th District House Race 2026
Oregon’s 4th Congressional District, covering the southern coast and Willamette Valley cities like Eugene and Corvallis, will hold its 2026 House election to fill the seat. The district has leaned Democratic in recent cycles but has a history of competitive contests. Candidates from both major parties are expected to campaign ahead of the primary and general election.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often comes down to a handful of competitive districts, and OR-04 has flipped between parties before. The outcome will shape representation for voters on issues like timber policy, coastal infrastructure, and rural healthcare access. A close race here could also signal broader national trends heading into the midterms.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders face is binary: which party’s nominee ultimately wins the seat, though individual candidate contracts allow for finer-grained bets before the field is set. This isolates partisan control as the key variable, stripped of policy nuance. As primaries resolve and campaigns develop, the contracts effectively track shifting confidence in each party’s hold on the district.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
Oregon -
Eugene, Oregon -
Val Hoyle -
Willamette Valley -
Corvallis, Oregon -
Oregon Coast
Total Volume
$25.1k
Kalshi $2.1k · Polymarket $22.9k
Leading Market
Val Hoyle
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 98%
Val Hoyle Volume
$10k
Kalshi $947.83 · Polymarket $9k
Val Hoyle 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi -0.30% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Val HoyleDemocratic Party | 97.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade Val Hoyle on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 98.0¢ | 5% | , trade Val Hoyle on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Monique de Saint-MartinRepublican Party | 4.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade Monique de Saint-Martin on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Monique de Saint-Martin on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Val HoyleDemocratic Party | $9,992.05 | ||
| Monique de Saint-MartinRepublican Party | $15,086.17 |