Oregon’s 1st District House Race: Who Will Win in 2026

Connecticut's congressional Democrats are previewing the influence they could wield if the party retakes the House and, less likely, the Senate in the midterms. Rep. Rosa DeLauro could return as Appropriations chair, overseeing spending fights with the Trump administration's Office of Management and Budget over rescissions and impoundment. Rep. Jim Himes, in line for House Intelligence chair, plans oversight of contractors, universities, and firms accommodating Trump's demands. Rep. Joe Courtney, on Seapower, would scrutinize submarine programs, the AUKUS agreement, and Air Force One's provenance. Rep. Jahana Hayes is pursuing the top Democratic slot on Education and the Workforce against incumbent Bobby Scott and Suzanne Bonamici, though she says her focus remains on her competitive reelection race first.

Retaking the Senate is seen as harder, requiring a four-seat net gain; Sens. Richard Blumenthal and Chris Murphy could reclaim subcommittee leadership roles. Democrats acknowledge lingering voter distrust after 2024 and say they must quickly address affordability alongside oversight of Trump if given the majority. Connecticut's delegation also faces its own reelection battles, with John Larson already having lost his primary.

Oregon's 2026 governor's race between Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek and Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan remains a toss-up, polling similarly tight to their 2022 contest, when Kotek won narrowly. A Drazan victory would be historic: Oregon hasn't elected a Republican governor in 44 years. Kotek has leaned heavily on tying Drazan to President Trump's unpopularity in the state, while Drazan has distanced herself from Trump and shifted toward working-class, bio-focused messaging after a divided GOP primary win.

Interviews with voters in Sherwood, a Portland suburb that nearly perfectly mirrors Oregon's statewide party registration and split three votes between the candidates in 2022, show ambivalence rather than enthusiasm on either side. Many voters say they are motivated more by fear of the alternative than support for their chosen candidate — concerns about housing costs, jobs, taxes, and Trump-era politics are driving decisions. Analysts say this anxiety-driven dynamic could determine turnout and ultimately decide the outcome of a race both candidates have framed as existential for Oregon's future.

Sen. Jeff Merkley held one of three Oregon town halls Thursday, this one in Portland, where he warned of "the entrenchment of an authoritarian state" and urged constituents to organize and vote. Attendees ranked free speech, Supreme Court ethics, and presidential profiteering from office as top concerns, with several framing them as part of a broader erosion of democratic institutions and checks and balances. Many also criticized Democrats and federal prosecutors under President Biden for failing to hold Trump accountable.

Concerns about the 2026 elections featured prominently, including fears that Trump's mail-in voting executive order could disrupt Oregon's vote-by-mail system. Merkley and Rep. Maxine Dexter said states retain authority over elections and that Oregon has contingency plans to ensure ballots are counted.

Merkley outlined proposed reforms, including stronger anti-corruption penalties, banning officials from stock trading, and regulating prediction markets to prevent officials from profiting off inside knowledge of political outcomes. He also called for Supreme Court ethics rules, term limits, and greater disclosure of political spending.

Oregon's gubernatorial race took center stage over Labor Day, as incumbent Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek and Republican challenger Christine Drazan both courted worker support ahead of the November election. Kotek attended the Northwest Oregon Labor Council's annual Labor Day picnic at Oaks Amusement Park in Portland, telling thousands of union members she would back them at the bargaining table. Attendees included members of AFSCME, SEIU, Teamsters and UFCW, along with other Democratic officials such as Secretary of State Tobias Read.

Drazan, who did not attend a Labor Day event, posted a pro-worker video pledging to bring jobs and investment back to Oregon and reverse business relocations out of the state. The contest comes as Oregon faces a rising cost of living and unemployment ticking above the national rate. Oregon has a strong union tradition, with unionization rates well above the national average, and labor groups have historically leaned Democratic, though both parties are working to win worker votes this cycle.

Candidates for Oregon governor are set for a series of fall debates, but for the first time in decades, none will take place in Portland. Incumbent Democratic Governor Tina Kotek and Republican Senator Christine Drazan have both said they are willing to debate in Portland, but they could not agree on a venue or host TV station. Kotek accepted an invitation from KOIN, while Drazan declined; Drazan accepted offers from two competing stations, which Kotek turned down.

Both candidates have agreed to debate in Eugene, Bend, and Medford next month, and will appear together Thursday at an Oregon Business and Industry forum hosted by the Portland Business Journal. Some of the out-of-market debates will be broadcast or streamed to Portland audiences, though questions are expected to focus on those local communities rather than the Portland metro area, home to the largest share of Oregon voters. The race is considered close, with recent polling showing Drazan holding a narrow edge over Kotek.

Clashes between protesters and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in Salem, Oregon, over the weekend reflect a sharp escalation in federal immigration enforcement statewide. Federal agents tear gassed demonstrators Saturday after about 30 people tried to block ICE vehicles in a shopping mall parking lot, a day after video showed an agent pepper-spraying a protester who jumped on an ICE SUV's hood at a gas station. ICE said officers were surrounded and their vehicles struck with bats and rocks; advocates and witnesses accuse agents of escalating tensions and exposing bystanders, including children, to chemical munitions.

Local immigrant support groups reported a surge in enforcement-related assistance requests, and statewide verified arrests more than doubled recent weekly averages. Latino-owned businesses reported steep sales drops as residents stayed home. Oregon's congressional delegation visited a Portland ICE facility, learning detainees are now being routed directly to a Tacoma detention center, raising due process concerns. Gov. Tina Kotek and state lawmakers condemned the enforcement escalation and pledged increased coordination.

Two Oregon lawmakers, Rep. Pam Marsh and Sen. Khanh Pham, plan to introduce legislation next year to repeal a state records exemption that has hidden details of how hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars are spent on subsidized housing. The effort follows ProPublica reporting that revealed Oregon has awarded developers $1.4 billion since 2021, with the cost of building each low-income apartment nearly doubling to $540,000, and another $850 million in state funding lined up for future projects.

Both lawmakers said they were unaware documents were being shielded until reading the reporting. Housing Oregon, an industry lobbying group representing developers and lenders, has voiced strong support for repealing the secrecy provision while urging protections for genuinely sensitive information. Oregon's Sunshine Committee is also reviewing the exemption. The state housing agency, which sought the exemption in 1997 and has cited it to redact cost reports, says it will review any legislation but has not taken a position. Washington and California disclose similar spending without reported harm to housing efforts.

Portland-area election officials say they remain confident in Oregon's vote-by-mail system after an unidentified whistleblower alleged the U.S. Postal Service is rushing out a ballot-processing system riddled with errors, warning a single scanning mistake could block an entire batch of ballots. The new USPS system is tied to a March executive order requiring states to submit lists of eligible voters for mail ballots, an order Oregon and other states are challenging in federal court as unconstitutional.

Multnomah County Elections Director Tim Scott said the county's system remains secure and convenient, and expects a temporary restraining order against the executive order to hold. He noted vote-by-mail was established by a 1998 Oregon voter initiative, not legislators. Clackamas County officials say they are proceeding as with any election, urging voters to confirm their addresses, request ballots if needed, and sign up for tracking. Oregon Secretary of State Tobias Read said the state will keep challenging the USPS plan while ensuring safe, accurate elections regardless of the outcome. President Trump has said the order targets election fraud.

As mail ballots go out this week in Oregon and Washington, Clark County, Washington election officials have added new security measures to ballot drop boxes following a 2024 arson attack that destroyed hundreds of ballots in Vancouver. A similar device placed on a Portland drop box that year was contained by a fire suppression system, sparing most ballots there. The suspect in both incidents has never been identified or caught.

Clark County Auditor Greg Kimsey said all 22 drop boxes in the county now have video cameras, internal fire suppression systems, and sensors that alert officials if a box is struck, tampered with, or opened. Officials hope the upgrades deter future attacks and provide evidence for law enforcement if needed. Washington ballots began mailing Tuesday; Oregon's voter registration deadline falls the same day, with ballots mailing Wednesday. Kimsey urged voters to review and submit ballots early rather than waiting until the deadline, to allow time to fix any issues.

Portland's City Council voted 8-4 to join the Oregon Arena Joint Authority, a state-mandated body overseeing a potential renovation of the Moda Center alongside representatives from Oregon and the county. The joint authority will oversee construction and future capital improvements, a requirement tied to the state bill that set aside renovation funding. Some councilors objected to speculative budget-impact language and limited council representation among the city's three appointees; an amendment to strike that language failed. Council President Jaime Dunphy said the city still needs a finalized budget, clear lease terms, labor standards, and a community benefits agreement before final funding action. Councilors unanimously approved the city administrator, a building official, and a budget office representative as appointees.