North Dakota At-Large House Seat: 2026 Winner
North Dakota’s single at-large House seat is up for election in 2026, with voters statewide choosing their lone representative in Congress. The seat has been reliably Republican for decades, but every cycle draws fresh candidates and renewed attention to the state’s political direction. Primaries and candidate filings will shape the field before the general election.
Why Markets Are Watching
North Dakota’s congressional delegation reflects the state’s energy-driven economy and rural priorities, from agriculture policy to oil and gas regulation. A single House seat carries outsized weight for a sparsely populated state with no districts to split influence. The outcome also feeds into the broader national battle for House control in 2026.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a statewide race to a binary question: which party, or specific candidate, captures North Dakota’s only House seat. Because the state leans heavily Republican, the real signal traders extract is about margin and candidate strength rather than genuine suspense over party control. Shifts in sentiment here act as a gauge of rural, energy-state political mood heading into the midterms.
Total Volume
$61.7k
Kalshi $12.1k · Polymarket $49.6k
Leading Market
Julie Fedorchak
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 99%
Julie Fedorchak Volume
$26k
Kalshi $4.3k · Polymarket $21.8k
Julie Fedorchak 24h Change
+0.20%
Kalshi +0.20% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julie FedorchakRepublican Party | 98.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Julie Fedorchak on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Julie Fedorchak on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Trygve RambergDemocratic Party | 2.6¢ | 7.0% | , trade Trygve Ramberg on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 3.0¢ | 5% | , trade Trygve Ramberg on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julie FedorchakRepublican Party | $26,038.44 | ||
| Trygve RambergDemocratic Party | $35,636.56 |