Elections
Alabama’s 4th District House Race: 2026 Winner
Alabama’s 4th Congressional District, anchored in the northwestern part of the state and including Florence and parts of the Appalachian foothills, holds its general election on November 3, 2026. The seat has long been one of the most reliably Republican districts in the country. Voters will choose a representative to serve a two-year term in the U.S. House starting in January 2027.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often comes down to margins in dozens of districts nationwide, even when individual seats aren’t competitive on their own. AL-04’s outcome factors into broader narratives about rural voter turnout, party coalition strength, and whether any erosion in historically safe districts signals shifting political currents heading into the midterms.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces the race to a binary question: which party’s nominee wins the seat. Because the district rarely sees genuine competition, the contract mostly tracks confirmation of an expected outcome rather than a toss-up. Traders are effectively weighing how durable partisan dominance remains against any signs of a shifting electorate.
Related terms
-
Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
Rural area -
Robert Aderholt -
Alabama's 4th congressional district -
Florence, Alabama
Total Volume
$115.6k
Kalshi $2.5k · Polymarket $113.1k
Leading Market
Robert Aderholt
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 99%
Robert Aderholt Volume
$22.2k
Kalshi $632.97 · Polymarket $21.5k
Robert Aderholt 24h Change
-0.60%
Kalshi -0.60% · Polymarket 0.00%
Loading chart…
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert AderholtRepublican Party | 99.4¢ | 7.0% | , trade Robert Aderholt on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Robert Aderholt on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Amanda PusczekDemocratic Party | 2.4¢ | 7.0% | , trade Amanda Pusczek on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 2.0¢ | 5% | , trade Amanda Pusczek on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert AderholtRepublican Party | $22,169.48 | ||
| Amanda PusczekDemocratic Party | $93,444.92 |