Missouri’s 7th District House Race: Who Will Win

Cole County Circuit Judge Daniel Green ruled that Missouri's new, Trump-backed congressional map can be used in November's elections, rejecting a bid by the coalition People Not Politicians to force a statewide referendum on the redrawn districts. Green sided with Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins and GOP officials, finding the state constitution does not extend referendum rights to congressional redistricting and that swapping maps after the August primary would violate federal law. Opponents, including PNP director Richard von Glahn, immediately vowed to appeal to the Missouri Supreme Court, which upheld the map in May without ruling on referendum eligibility. Republicans, including Gov. Mike Kehoe and RNC Chairman Joe Gruters, celebrated the decision.

The map reshapes Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based 5th District, pushing roughly 59% of its voters into new, rural Republican-leaning territory, and is expected to shrink Missouri's Democratic House delegation from two seats to one. The push, prompted by Trump's call for GOP-led states to redraw lines ahead of the midterms, has spurred litigation nationwide as Republicans and Democrats race to lock in favorable maps in states including Texas, North Carolina, California, and Utah, with control of the House at stake.

The Missouri Supreme Court unanimously blocked new Republican-drawn congressional districts, backed by Donald Trump, from taking effect in the November election and ordered a statewide referendum on whether to uphold or reject the map. Though used in the August primary, the map cannot be used again unless voters approve it; the 2022 map remains in effect for the midterms otherwise. The court ruled that a constitutional provision allowing referendums on "any act" of the Legislature applies to congressional redistricting, overturning Secretary of State Denny Hoskins' rejection of a petition backed by over 300,000 signatures.

The map had targeted the 5th Congressional District held by Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, stretching it into rural Republican territory. Attorney General Catherine Hanaway and Gov. Mike Kehoe called the ruling an unprecedented constitutional crisis and vowed an immediate appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court; Trump called it a "Dark Day" for Missouri. Hoskins vowed to keep fighting, while Democrats and redistricting advocates celebrated the decision as a rare setback in Trump's nationwide mid-decade redistricting push spanning more than a dozen states ahead of the midterms.

Missouri's congressional redistricting fight has returned to the U.S. Supreme Court for a third time after the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the state must use its 2025 Republican-drawn map in November, reversing the Missouri Supreme Court decision that had reinstated the 2022 districts pending a voter referendum. The appeals court paused its own order to give the justices a narrow window to intervene again after twice previously blocking use of the new map, with a ruling expected soon.

The 2025 map, backed by President Trump, reshapes Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based district and could give Republicans seven of Missouri's eight House seats. With absentee voting underway, county election officials say they are following the most recent court order and currently using the 2022 map, but face confusion over what happens to ballots already cast if the Supreme Court later orders a switch. Election clerks note a voter's ballot could still count even if their U.S. House selection is voided. Regardless of the outcome, a referendum on the new districts will still appear on the ballot for future elections.

Missouri's 4th Congressional District race pits two-term Republican incumbent Mark Alford, a former TV anchor serving on House Armed Services and Appropriations committees, against Democrat Jordan Herrera, an Air Force veteran and Missouri assistant attorney general, and Libertarian Thomas Holbrook. Alford campaigns on an America First platform, border enforcement and reduced federal spending, while Herrera emphasizes economic security, healthcare access and limiting government regulation of personal life. Holbrook opposes gerrymandering and tariffs. The district's boundaries remain contested: the 2022 map, used for this election, covers west-central Missouri, while a newer 2025 map used for the primary would shift Kansas City into the district instead of District 5.

Missouri's 5th Congressional District, anchored in the Kansas City metro, will use the 2022 map rather than the 2025 redistricting plan for the November 2026 election, after the state Supreme Court ruled on the matter following legal challenges. The district, traditionally Democratic-leaning, pits longtime incumbent Rep. Emanuel Cleaver against Republican state Sen. Rick Brattin, who sued over primary disruptions caused by the map dispute, and Libertarian Randy Langkraehr. Cleaver, in office since 2005, has won previous races by wide margins, while Brattin is campaigning as a Trump ally focused on border security and spending cuts. The redistricting fight had aimed to dilute Kansas City's Democratic base across neighboring districts.

Missouri's 6th Congressional District race pits Democrat Josh Smead, an architect and small business owner, against Republican Chris Stigall, a conservative radio host and former Graves staffer, with Libertarian Andy Maidment, a retired Army officer, also on the ballot. The seat opens after longtime U.S. Rep. Sam Graves' retirement after more than two decades in Congress. Smead backs universal healthcare, increased school funding and infrastructure investment; Stigall emphasizes gun rights, border security and tax relief alongside Trump administration priorities; Maidment calls for smaller government and fiscal restraint. Some voters face new district lines after the Supreme Court ordered use of the 2022 congressional map rather than the 2025 map used in the August primary.

A dispute over which congressional map Missouri will use in November has moved into federal court as a ballot-change deadline looms. The Missouri Supreme Court ruled unanimously that a referendum petition from People Not Politicians was legally sufficient, meaning the 2025 GOP-favored map — drawn last September at President Trump's urging to create a 7-1 GOP advantage — cannot take effect until voters approve it, forcing a return to the old district lines under which much of Kansas City remains in Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's 5th District. The referendum will appear as Proposition A on the November 3 ballot.

Attorney General Catherine Hanaway has appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, while Solicitor General Lou Capozzi asked a federal judge to block the state ruling on behalf of Secretary of State Denny Hoskins. Separately, U.S. Rep. Bob Onder, state Sen. Rick Brattin, and two voters sued to force use of the 2025 map, with Hoskins siding with them. People Not Politicians seeks dismissal, warning of chaos from last-minute changes. Decisions could come before Tuesday's deadline.

The U.S. Supreme Court has ended, for now, Missouri's year-long redistricting battle by rejecting the Trump-backed congressional map, clearing the way for the state to use districts drawn in 2022 for the November election. Secretary of State Denny Hoskins directed local election authorities to use the 2022 map after the ruling, following the Missouri Supreme Court's earlier order; Attorney General Catherine Hanaway followed suit. Hoskins had briefly been found in contempt for trying to use the new map before correcting course, and the court imposed no penalty once he complied.

The switch means Missouri could hold its general election under different districts than were used in the August primary, potentially changing candidate choices for roughly a quarter of the state's voters. The dispute centers on a GOP-drawn map targeting Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-area seat, part of a broader Trump-driven redistricting push following similar action in Texas. Gov. Mike Kehoe still hopes the map can be revived, watching the 8th Circuit, which will hear arguments ahead of a Sept. 19 deadline to finalize ballots for overseas military voters. A statewide referendum on the map also remains on the November ballot.

Missouri's congressional map dispute continues even after two Supreme Court setbacks for Republicans. Secretary of State Denny Hoskins conceded during a contempt hearing and reverted to the state's 2022 congressional map after the Missouri Supreme Court unanimously found he improperly blocked a citizen referendum, which had gathered roughly 300,000 signatures, to suspend the GOP's 2025 map. That map would have shifted the delegation from 6-2 to 7-1 Republican.

Five Missouri voters have since sued Hoskins, seeking roughly $80 million in damages on behalf of about 162,000 people whose referendum signatures were verified, alleging he violated statutory duties by improperly rejecting the petition and repeatedly directing election authorities to use the invalid 2025 map.

Republicans, including Rep. Bob Onder, Gov. Mike Kehoe, and Hoskins, are still pursuing the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which has expedited briefing ahead of the Sept. 19 overseas ballot deadline. Legal scholars note the Supreme Court's stay effectively controls the outcome regardless of the appeals court's ruling, with broader implications for the 2026 midterm balance of power.

Missouri's congressional redistricting fight has returned to the U.S. Supreme Court for a third time this month. Challengers of the Republican-drawn 2025 map, including the group People Not Politicians, asked the Court to block a ruling by the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals that had ordered the new map's revival for November's election. The Supreme Court had twice blocked use of that map, most recently in an unsigned, unexplained order on September 10 with no public dissent, after Justice Brett Kavanaugh earlier rejected an appeal from Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins and sided with the Missouri Supreme Court. Despite that, an 8th Circuit panel—including two Trump appointees—upheld a federal judge's temporary order requiring use of the 2025 map, since it had already governed the August 4 primary. The Supreme Court gave the map's supporters until midday Wednesday to respond.

The dispute follows a Missouri Supreme Court ruling that a referendum challenging the 2025 map was valid, keeping the 2022 map in place pending a statewide vote. The new map, backed by President Trump and designed to help Republicans flip Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based seat and win seven of Missouri's eight House seats, has left over a million voters uncertain which district they belong to. Absentee and overseas ballots are already going out under the 2022 map, as the case continues to be the most protracted and complex of this cycle's mid-decade redistricting battles nationwide.