Missouri’s 4th Congressional District House Race
Missouri’s 4th Congressional District will choose its U.S. House representative in the 2026 midterm elections. The seat covers a largely rural, western Missouri district that has historically leaned strongly Republican. Candidates from both major parties, along with potential independents, are expected to compete for the position.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on the cumulative outcome of races like this one, making each district’s result part of a larger national power struggle. Even in districts considered safe for one party, midterm dynamics, candidate quality, and turnout shifts can produce surprises. The outcome will help shape the legislative agenda for the next two years.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders are weighing is simple: which party ultimately holds the seat once votes are certified. Separate contracts isolate individual candidates, allowing a more granular view of who emerges from any primary contest before the general election. Together, these questions let participants express views on both intra-party dynamics and the final partisan outcome.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
Primary election -
United States midterm election -
Missouri -
Rural area -
Mark Alford -
Jordan Barrera
Total Volume
$90.4k
Kalshi $8.8k · Polymarket $81.6k
Leading Market
Mark Alford
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 97%
Mark Alford Volume
$48.1k
Kalshi $3.7k · Polymarket $44.5k
Mark Alford 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark AlfordRepublican Party | 97.6¢ | 7.0% |
|
97.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Jordan BarreraDemocratic Party | 4.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
4.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Missouri’s 4th District House Race: Alford Faces Air Force Veteran Herrera
PN Team • 2 days ago
Missouri's 4th Congressional District race pits two-term Republican incumbent Mark Alford, a former TV anchor serving on House Armed Services and Appropriations committees, against Democrat Jordan Herrera, an Air Force veteran and Missouri assistant attorney general, and Libertarian Thomas Holbrook. Alford campaigns on an America First platform, border enforcement and reduced federal spending, while Herrera emphasizes economic security, healthcare access and limiting government regulation of personal life. Holbrook opposes gerrymandering and tariffs. The district's boundaries remain contested: the 2022 map, used for this election, covers west-central Missouri, while a newer 2025 map used for the primary would shift Kansas City into the district instead of District 5.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Identified as Herrera's party affiliation in a factual race description.
- Kansas City, Missouri Mentioned factually regarding redistricting plans affecting the district's boundaries.
- Missouri Named as the state hosting the congressional race, described neutrally.
- Republican Party (United States) Identified as Alford's party affiliation in a factual race description.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced as the chamber both candidates seek to join, described neutrally.
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Elections
Missouri judge clears Trump-backed House map for November election
PN Team • 2 months ago
Cole County Circuit Judge Daniel Green ruled that Missouri's new, Trump-backed congressional map can be used in November's elections, rejecting a bid by the coalition People Not Politicians to force a statewide referendum on the redrawn districts. Green sided with Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins and GOP officials, finding the state constitution does not extend referendum rights to congressional redistricting and that swapping maps after the August primary would violate federal law. Opponents, including PNP director Richard von Glahn, immediately vowed to appeal to the Missouri Supreme Court, which upheld the map in May without ruling on referendum eligibility. Republicans, including Gov. Mike Kehoe and RNC Chairman Joe Gruters, celebrated the decision.
The map reshapes Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based 5th District, pushing roughly 59% of its voters into new, rural Republican-leaning territory, and is expected to shrink Missouri's Democratic House delegation from two seats to one. The push, prompted by Trump's call for GOP-led states to redraw lines ahead of the midterms, has spurred litigation nationwide as Republicans and Democrats race to lock in favorable maps in states including Texas, North Carolina, California, and Utah, with control of the House at stake.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party stands to lose a House seat in Missouri due to the redrawn map, a clear political setback.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans successfully defended their favorable redistricting map and gained a likely additional House seat, with officials celebrating the ruling.
- Donald Trump Trump's push for the redistricting effort succeeded in this ruling, favorably advancing his political agenda.
- Kansas City, Missouri Kansas City's district was redrawn to dilute Democratic voting power, negatively affecting the area's political representation.
- Missouri Missouri is the central setting of a contentious redistricting fight with mixed political implications for the state.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned only as the body whose control is at stake nationally, without direct reputational impact.
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Elections
Missouri Supreme Court blocks Trump-backed congressional map, orders statewide vote
PN Team • 2 months ago
The Missouri Supreme Court unanimously blocked new Republican-drawn congressional districts, backed by Donald Trump, from taking effect in the November election and ordered a statewide referendum on whether to uphold or reject the map. Though used in the August primary, the map cannot be used again unless voters approve it; the 2022 map remains in effect for the midterms otherwise. The court ruled that a constitutional provision allowing referendums on "any act" of the Legislature applies to congressional redistricting, overturning Secretary of State Denny Hoskins' rejection of a petition backed by over 300,000 signatures.
The map had targeted the 5th Congressional District held by Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, stretching it into rural Republican territory. Attorney General Catherine Hanaway and Gov. Mike Kehoe called the ruling an unprecedented constitutional crisis and vowed an immediate appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court; Trump called it a "Dark Day" for Missouri. Hoskins vowed to keep fighting, while Democrats and redistricting advocates celebrated the decision as a rare setback in Trump's nationwide mid-decade redistricting push spanning more than a dozen states ahead of the midterms.
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's backed map was blocked and he called the ruling a 'Dark Day,' framing him as suffering a political setback.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican-drawn map was blocked by the court as unconstitutional, a setback for the party's redistricting push.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats celebrated the ruling as a rare win against Republican-led redistricting efforts.
- United States House of Representatives The dispute concerns congressional districts and representation but the body itself is only tangentially referenced.
- Missouri Missouri is the setting of the political and legal dispute without a clear reputational judgment on the state itself.
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Elections
Missouri’s Trump-backed congressional map heads to Supreme Court for third time
PN Team • 1 month ago
Missouri's congressional redistricting fight has returned to the U.S. Supreme Court for a third time after the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the state must use its 2025 Republican-drawn map in November, reversing the Missouri Supreme Court decision that had reinstated the 2022 districts pending a voter referendum. The appeals court paused its own order to give the justices a narrow window to intervene again after twice previously blocking use of the new map, with a ruling expected soon.
The 2025 map, backed by President Trump, reshapes Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based district and could give Republicans seven of Missouri's eight House seats. With absentee voting underway, county election officials say they are following the most recent court order and currently using the 2022 map, but face confusion over what happens to ballots already cast if the Supreme Court later orders a switch. Election clerks note a voter's ballot could still count even if their U.S. House selection is voided. Regardless of the outcome, a referendum on the new districts will still appear on the ballot for future elections.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump-backed map advancing toward implementation reflects a political win for him.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican-drawn map could give the party seven of eight Missouri House seats, a favorable political outcome.
- Missouri Missouri is the central location of the redistricting dispute, described factually.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced only tangentially as the body whose seats are at stake in redistricting.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is mentioned factually as the body whose Missouri seats are being redrawn.
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Elections
Missouri’s 5th District Set for Cleaver-Brattin Matchup in 2026
PN Team • 2 days ago
Missouri's 5th Congressional District, anchored in the Kansas City metro, will use the 2022 map rather than the 2025 redistricting plan for the November 2026 election, after the state Supreme Court ruled on the matter following legal challenges. The district, traditionally Democratic-leaning, pits longtime incumbent Rep. Emanuel Cleaver against Republican state Sen. Rick Brattin, who sued over primary disruptions caused by the map dispute, and Libertarian Randy Langkraehr. Cleaver, in office since 2005, has won previous races by wide margins, while Brattin is campaigning as a Trump ally focused on border security and spending cuts. The redistricting fight had aimed to dilute Kansas City's Democratic base across neighboring districts.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Emanuel Cleaver Portrayed as a long-serving incumbent who has won by wide margins.
- Democratic Party (United States) District described as traditionally Democratic-leaning with a long-serving Democratic incumbent.
- Rick Brattin Described neutrally as a Trump-aligned challenger who sued over primary disruptions.
- Kansas City metropolitan area Mentioned as the metro area anchoring the district and target of redistricting dilution efforts.
- Missouri State referenced factually in context of the redistricting and court ruling.
- Missouri's 5th congressional district Central subject of the article describing the electoral map dispute and candidates.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican Party referenced neutrally via Brattin's candidacy and a redistricting dispute.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned as the body Cleaver and Brattin are competing to serve in.
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Elections
Supreme Court Rejects Trump-Backed Missouri Map, Reverting to 2022 Districts
PN Team • 2 months ago
The U.S. Supreme Court has ended, for now, Missouri's year-long redistricting battle by rejecting the Trump-backed congressional map, clearing the way for the state to use districts drawn in 2022 for the November election. Secretary of State Denny Hoskins directed local election authorities to use the 2022 map after the ruling, following the Missouri Supreme Court's earlier order; Attorney General Catherine Hanaway followed suit. Hoskins had briefly been found in contempt for trying to use the new map before correcting course, and the court imposed no penalty once he complied.
The switch means Missouri could hold its general election under different districts than were used in the August primary, potentially changing candidate choices for roughly a quarter of the state's voters. The dispute centers on a GOP-drawn map targeting Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-area seat, part of a broader Trump-driven redistricting push following similar action in Texas. Gov. Mike Kehoe still hopes the map can be revived, watching the 8th Circuit, which will hear arguments ahead of a Sept. 19 deadline to finalize ballots for overseas military voters. A statewide referendum on the map also remains on the November ballot.
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP-drawn map targeting a Democratic seat was rejected, reflecting a setback for Republican redistricting efforts.
- Donald Trump The Trump-backed map was rejected by the Supreme Court, portraying a legal defeat for his redistricting push.
- Democratic Party (United States) The ruling reverts to a map more favorable to Democratic Rep. Cleaver's seat, a mild positive for the party.
- Texas Referenced as part of the broader Trump-driven redistricting push, a mildly negative association with partisan gerrymandering efforts.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned tangentially as the body whose composition is affected by redistricting, without direct reputational implications.
- Kansas City, Missouri Mentioned as the location of the contested congressional seat, a factual geographic reference.
- Missouri Central to the factual redistricting dispute without inherent reputational judgment on the state itself.
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Elections
Missouri map fight escalates to federal court ahead of ballot deadline
PN Team • 2 months ago
A dispute over which congressional map Missouri will use in November has moved into federal court as a ballot-change deadline looms. The Missouri Supreme Court ruled unanimously that a referendum petition from People Not Politicians was legally sufficient, meaning the 2025 GOP-favored map — drawn last September at President Trump's urging to create a 7-1 GOP advantage — cannot take effect until voters approve it, forcing a return to the old district lines under which much of Kansas City remains in Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's 5th District. The referendum will appear as Proposition A on the November 3 ballot.
Attorney General Catherine Hanaway has appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, while Solicitor General Lou Capozzi asked a federal judge to block the state ruling on behalf of Secretary of State Denny Hoskins. Separately, U.S. Rep. Bob Onder, state Sen. Rick Brattin, and two voters sued to force use of the 2025 map, with Hoskins siding with them. People Not Politicians seeks dismissal, warning of chaos from last-minute changes. Decisions could come before Tuesday's deadline.
Sentiment
- Donald Trump The map was drawn at Trump's urging to favor Republicans, but it was struck down, reflecting negatively on his political influence here.
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP-favored map is blocked pending voter approval, a setback for Republican redistricting efforts.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic-held Cleaver district benefits from the old map remaining in effect, a mildly favorable outcome for the party.
- Kansas City, Missouri Kansas City is mentioned as remaining in a Democratic district under the old map, a neutral factual detail.
- Missouri Missouri is the setting of a contentious legal and political redistricting battle with unresolved implications.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced only as context for the congressional district dispute without direct characterization.
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Elections
Supreme Court blocks Missouri’s new congressional map, sending redistricting fight to voters
PN Team • 1 month ago
The U.S. Supreme Court blocked Missouri from using a Republican-drawn 2025 congressional map in November, requiring the state to instead use the map adopted in 2022. The ruling caps a monthslong dispute triggered by a national redistricting push, following mid-decade map changes in Texas and Ohio favoring Republicans and California's Democratic-leaning response. Missouri's 2025 map, passed in May, would have added a Republican-leaning seat by reshaping Kansas City's District 5, held by Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, and tightening District 2, held by Republican Ann Wagner.
Because primaries were held under the 2025 map while the general election reverts to 2022 lines, Republicans Bob Onder and Rick Brattin have sued, arguing voters' rights are harmed; the Eighth Circuit was set to hear arguments. Missouri's Supreme Court separately found Secretary of State Denny Hoskins in contempt for trying to use the blocked map, though he avoided sanction after complying. Voters will ultimately decide the matter through Proposition A, a ballot measure asking whether to adopt the 2025 map or keep the 2022 lines, with implications for other states' redistricting plans.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Missouri Missouri is central to the redistricting dispute, portrayed as embroiled in legal and political conflict.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican Party's redistricting push was blocked by the Supreme Court, a mild setback to its political goals.
- California California mentioned factually as a comparison point in the national redistricting context.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic Party mentioned as beneficiary/context in redistricting fight without strong positive or negative framing.
- Kansas City, Missouri Kansas City is referenced as the district reshaped by the blocked map, a neutral factual mention.
- Ohio Ohio mentioned factually as part of the broader national redistricting trend.
- Texas Texas mentioned factually as part of the broader national redistricting trend.
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Elections
Missouri Supreme Court blocks Trump-backed congressional map, orders statewide vote
PN Team • 2 months ago
The Missouri Supreme Court has unanimously blocked new Trump-backed congressional districts from being used in the November election, ruling that a referendum petition against the map was valid and must go before voters. The decision means the state's 2020 census-based map stays in effect for 2026, dealing a rare setback to Republicans' national mid-decade redistricting push aimed at flipping an additional U.S. House seat. Attorney General Catherine Hanaway said she would immediately appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, calling the ruling a "constitutional crisis," while Gov. Mike Kehoe and Secretary of State Denny Hoskins also condemned the decision.
The new map, drawn after Trump urged Republicans to redraw districts nationwide, had targeted Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based seat. Opponents had gathered over 300,000 signatures for a referendum, which Hoskins rejected—a decision the court overturned. The ruling was one of only a handful nationally to go against Republican redistricting efforts amid a fight that has spread to more than a dozen states.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans suffer a setback in their redistricting push aimed at flipping a House seat.
- Donald Trump Trump's push for redistricting was blocked, representing a setback tied to his political agenda.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats benefit from the court's decision preserving the existing map that protects a Democratic-held seat.
- Missouri Missouri is the factual setting of the court ruling and redistricting dispute.
- United States The United States is mentioned in the context of a broader national redistricting fight, a neutral factual reference.
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Elections
Missouri GOP Statehouse Nominee Charged With Plotting to Plant Drugs on Primary Rival
PN Team • 2 months ago
Thomas Christopher Ross, 37, the Republican nominee for the 161st district of the Missouri House of Representatives, has been charged in federal court with conspiracy to distribute narcotics after allegedly plotting to plant cocaine and a prescription stimulant on his primary rival, Louise Secker. Ross narrowly won the August primary by 33 votes.
According to an FBI affidavit, Ross spent weeks planning with his campaign manager to hide a glove containing drugs in Secker's car or purse, then have the manager tip off police anonymously while Ross was on vacation. The plan was allegedly discussed in coded text messages but was never carried out; the campaign manager instead alerted authorities, triggering the investigation. The Missouri Republican Party's chairman has called on Ross to resign as the nominee. Ross faces up to 20 years in prison if convicted, and the case introduces new uncertainty into the district's general election outlook.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) The scandal involves a Republican nominee, and even though the state party chairman calls for his resignation, the episode reflects poorly on the party's candidate vetting.
- Missouri Missouri is the setting of the political scandal, a tangential factual mention with mild negative association.
- Law enforcement Law enforcement is referenced generically as the party to be tipped off, a neutral procedural mention.
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