Michigan’s 11th District House Race 2026
Michigan’s 11th Congressional District, covering suburban Oakland County communities like Troy, Royal Oak, and Southfield, will hold its House election on November 3, 2026. The district has leaned Democratic in recent cycles but includes competitive suburban precincts that both parties actively contest. The race will determine who represents the area in the U.S. House for the next term.
Why Markets Are Watching
Suburban districts like MI-11 often serve as bellwethers for broader shifts among college-educated and independent voters. The outcome could influence which party holds the narrow House majority in 2027. Local turnout trends here may also foreshadow dynamics in neighboring Michigan districts and similar suburban battlegrounds nationwide.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate contest to a binary question: will the Democratic or Republican nominee win the seat. Traders are effectively weighing incumbency strength, candidate quality, and national political winds against the district’s underlying partisan lean. Shifts in sentiment here can reflect broader expectations about suburban voting patterns heading into the midterms.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
Michigan -
Oakland County, Michigan -
Southfield, Michigan -
Royal Oak, Michigan -
Jeremy Moss -
Troy
Total Volume
$13.4k
Kalshi $3.2k · Polymarket $10.2k
Leading Market
Jeremy Moss
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 98%
Jeremy Moss Volume
$1.4k
Kalshi $1.2k · Polymarket $202.59
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy MossDemocratic Party | 97.4¢ | 7.0% | , trade Jeremy Moss on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 98.0¢ | 5% | , trade Jeremy Moss on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Ethan BakerRepublican Party | 4.3¢ | 7.0% | , trade Ethan Baker on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Ethan Baker on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy MossDemocratic Party | $1,371.59 | ||
| Ethan BakerRepublican Party | $12,040.57 |