Illinois Senate Election 2026: Voter Turnout
Illinois voters will pick a U.S. Senator on November 3, 2026, in a midterm contest shaped by the state’s reliably Democratic lean and competitive primary fields. The race fills the seat tied to Illinois’s broader political landscape, with turnout levels expected to reflect national midterm engagement trends. Analysts will compare the final count against past midterm cycles in the state.
Why Markets Are Watching
Turnout in a midterm Senate race signals voter enthusiasm and can shape down-ballot outcomes across Illinois. Higher participation often reflects intensified national political stakes, while lower turnout may indicate voter fatigue or lack of competitive drama. The result will offer a data point for understanding 2026 midterm engagement in a large, urban-suburban state.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Turnout
These contracts isolate a single measurable threshold: whether total ballots cast will cross specific numeric marks, from the mid-3 millions up toward nearly 5 million. Rather than asking who wins, the question tests expectations about civic participation itself. Traders are effectively weighing historical turnout baselines against current voter enthusiasm signals heading into the general election.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
United States Senate -
General election -
Voter turnout -
United States midterm election -
Illinois -
Politics of Illinois
Total Volume
$5.9k
Kalshi $2k · Polymarket $3.9k
Leading Market
Above 3.50M
Kalshi 95%
Above 3.50M Volume
$204.38
Kalshi $204.38
Above 3.50M 24h Change
+12.00%
Kalshi +12.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.50M | 98.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
— | — | — |
| Above 3.5M | — | — | — | 95.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Above 3.75M | — | — | — | 76.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Above 3.30M | 98.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
— | — | — |
| Above 3.70M | 91.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
— | — | — |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Illinois Democrats project unity at state fair amid harassment and corruption fallout
PN Team • 2 months ago
Illinois Democrats gathered at the state fair in Springfield for their annual Democrats' Day, with Gov. JB Pritzker, Sens. Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth, Attorney General Kwame Raoul, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren delivering anti-Trump speeches while downplaying ideological rifts roiling the national party. Warren praised Senate candidate Juliana Stratton for standing up to AIPAC and corporate PACs, touching on divisions over Israel-Gaza policy and campaign finance that have proven more combustible elsewhere. But the celebratory tone was clouded by House Speaker Chris Welch's handling of a sexual harassment scandal involving former Rep. Harry Benton, and the recent indictment of Rep. Carol Ammons and her husband on fraud charges. Welch skipped the main event; three House Democrats have refused to join his working group on the harassment issue, calling its formation flawed.
A day later, Republicans held their own fairground rally, with Gov. candidate Darren Bailey and running mate Aaron Del Mar attacking Pritzker over cost of living, public safety and schools while avoiding mention of Trump. Senate candidate Don Tracy branded Stratton and Democratic Socialist allies as extreme, and House GOP leader Tony McCombie renewed criticism of Welch. Separately, the DNC narrowed its 2028 convention host shortlist to Boston, Denver and Philadelphia, excluding Chicago, which hosted in 2024 and remains in contention for 2032. Pritzker's campaign also launched a TV ad branding Bailey as extreme ahead of November.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Juliana Stratton Stratton is praised by Warren for standing up to AIPAC and corporate PACs, a favorable portrayal despite being attacked by opponents.
- Democratic Party (United States) The party is depicted projecting unity while facing internal rifts, harassment scandal fallout, and a corruption indictment.
- Elizabeth Warren Warren is shown praising a candidate for standing up to AIPAC and delivering a speech, a favorable portrayal.
- Dick Durbin Durbin is shown delivering a unifying anti-Trump speech at a party event, a mildly favorable mention.
- Donald Trump Trump is the target of anti-Trump speeches, portraying him negatively by association though not directly detailed.
- United States House of Representatives The House is implicated via the harassment scandal handling and Ammons' indictment, casting a shadow on the institution.
- Boston Boston is named as a finalist city for the 2028 DNC convention, a neutral-to-favorable civic mention.
- Denver Denver is named as a finalist city for the 2028 DNC convention, a neutral-to-favorable civic mention.
- Philadelphia Philadelphia is named as a finalist city for the 2028 DNC convention, a neutral-to-favorable civic mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are shown actively campaigning and criticizing Democrats, a mildly favorable strategic portrayal.
- Chicago Chicago is noted as excluded from the 2028 convention shortlist despite hosting in 2024, a mildly unfavorable civic note.
- Illinois Illinois is the setting for the political events described, a neutral geographic reference.
- Israel Israel is mentioned only in the context of policy divisions over Israel-Gaza, a neutral reference.
- Springfield, Illinois Springfield is the location of the state fair events described, a neutral geographic reference.
- United States Senate Referenced only through senators' speeches, a neutral institutional mention.
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Elections
Melissa Bean, Jennifer Davis vie for Illinois’ 8th Congressional District
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Former U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean, a centrist Democrat, is seeking a political comeback in Illinois' 8th Congressional District, facing Republican newcomer Jennifer Davis in the Nov. 3 general election. The seat is open after Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who has endorsed Bean, left to run unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate. An independent write-in candidate, Christopher Krumpac, is also running.
The district, which stretches from the northwest Chicago suburbs to Elgin and the Fox River Valley, leans solidly Democratic. Bean, who first won the seat in 2004 and served until 2011, has outraised Davis, aided in part by a super PAC tied to AIPAC that drew progressive criticism during the primary. Davis, a tech entrepreneur making her first run for office, has loaned her own campaign $1 million to stay competitive.
The candidates diverge sharply on abortion, immigration, and Trump-era policies, with Bean casting the race as a check on the administration and Davis positioning herself as a political outsider focused on small business and economic concerns.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Melissa Bean Bean is portrayed as a credible, experienced candidate seeking a comeback with strong fundraising and an endorsement.
- Donald Trump Trump is referenced as a divisive figure whose policies are being contested, with Bean positioning herself as a check on his administration.
- Israel Israel is referenced via the AIPAC-tied super PAC that drew progressive criticism.
- Democratic Party (United States) The district leans Democratic and Bean is identified as a centrist Democrat seeking a comeback.
- Raja Krishnamoorthi Krishnamoorthi is mentioned positively as endorsing Bean, though his Senate bid failed.
- United States Senate Krishnamoorthi left the House seat to run unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate, a minor setback mention.
- Independent politician An independent write-in candidate, Christopher Krumpac, is mentioned as running, a neutral factual reference.
- Illinois Illinois is the state context for the district, mentioned factually.
- Illinois's 8th congressional district The article centers on the race for this congressional district, described neutrally.
- Republican Party (United States) Davis is identified as the Republican newcomer in a neutral, factual context.
- United States The United States is mentioned as the context for the general election and Senate race.
- United States House of Representatives The race concerns a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, mentioned factually.
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Elections
Illinois Senate District 33 Race Between Clark and Penman
PN Team • 4 days ago
Illinois Senate District 33 is contested in the Nov. 3 general election between Democrat Michele Clark of Algonquin and Republican Danielle Penman of St. Charles. Both candidates cite affordability as a top voter concern, particularly rising property taxes, utility and grocery costs, and healthcare expenses.
Penman says she would prioritize lowering health insurance premiums, boosting the local economy for small and large businesses, and addressing law enforcement staffing shortages. Clark points to political ethics as a key issue, proposing a ban on stock trading by General Assembly members, expanded term limits, prescription drug cost caps, and childcare cost relief through business tax incentives.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Law enforcement Mentioned as facing staffing shortages, a mild negative but incidental detail.
- Democratic Party (United States) Identifies Clark's party affiliation in a factual election preview.
- Illinois State context for a factual legislative race description.
- Republican Party (United States) Identifies Penman's party affiliation in a factual election preview.
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Elections
Illinois 2026 Statewide Races Set as Candidates Face Off for Senate, Governor and More
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Illinois voters head to the polls Nov. 3 to fill an open U.S. Senate seat and decide contests for governor, attorney general, secretary of state, comptroller and treasurer. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton faces Republican Don Tracy for the Senate seat being vacated by Dick Durbin. Gov. J.B. Pritzker, running with new lieutenant governor pick Christian Mitchell, seeks a third term in a rematch against Darren Bailey, who has Donald Trump's endorsement and running mate Aaron Del Mar.
Incumbent Attorney General Kwame Raoul faces Republican Bob Fioretti, while Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, now also running for Chicago mayor, is challenged by Republican Diane Harris. With Comptroller Susana Mendoza not seeking re-election amid her own mayoral bid, Democrat Margaret Croke and Republican Bryan Drew are competing for that office. Treasurer Mike Frerichs seeks re-election against Republican Max Solomon. The races will shape state policy on taxes, spending oversight, abortion access and Illinois' relationship with the Trump administration, with early and mail voting available ahead of Election Day.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Juliana Stratton Stratton is highlighted as the Democratic Senate candidate, a notable career advancement opportunity.
- Dick Durbin Durbin is mentioned simply as the retiring incumbent, a neutral factual note.
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsement is noted, tying him to the race in a way that could be polarizing.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidates are described as competing in multiple races without particular favor or criticism.
- Don Tracy Tracy is mentioned as a candidate without further characterization.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican candidates are described as competing in multiple races without particular favor or criticism.
- Chicago Chicago is mentioned regarding mayoral bids tangential to the main story.
- Illinois Illinois is the central location for this factual election overview.
- United States Senate The open Senate seat is central to the factual election overview.
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Elections
Illinois Democrats Campaign Nationally Ahead of Election Day
PN Team • 4 days ago
With Election Day a week away, Illinois Democrats are campaigning beyond state lines to aid party allies nationally. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi backed Texas Railroad Commissioner candidate Jon Rosenthal; Sen. Tammy Duckworth campaigned for Sherrod Brown in Ohio; Rahm Emanuel canvassed in New Hampshire; and Rep. Danny Davis and successor nominee La Shawn Ford campaigned for Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate David Crowley. Gov. JB Pritzker is focused on his own reelection, holding a large cash advantage and backing fellow Democrats financially.
Big money is also flowing into Illinois races, including Chicago school board contests, with GOP megadonors Dick and Elizabeth Uihlein and wealthy Democratic-aligned groups both spending heavily to shape outcomes from Springfield to Chicago.
Sources:
Sentiment
- La Shawn Ford Described as actively campaigning for a gubernatorial candidate, a mildly favorable portrayal of political engagement.
- Raja Krishnamoorthi Portrayed as actively backing a candidate outside Illinois, reflecting engaged political leadership.
- Rahm Emanuel Noted as canvassing in New Hampshire, a neutral-to-mildly-positive depiction of political activity.
- Democratic Party (United States) Described as the party whose members are campaigning nationally, a neutral factual framing.
- Sherrod Brown Mentioned as the recipient of campaign support, a neutral factual reference.
- Illinois Central setting for the story's political campaigning activity, described neutrally.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned as the chamber several campaigning representatives belong to, with no evaluative content.
- United States Senate Referenced as the chamber of two campaigning senators, factual and neutral.
- Chicago Mentioned as a location where political spending is shaping outcomes, a neutral factual reference.
- New Hampshire Named only as the location of a canvassing trip, a neutral factual mention.
- Ohio Referenced as the state where a senator campaigned, a neutral geographic detail.
- Springfield, Illinois Named as one endpoint of political spending flows, a neutral factual mention.
- Texas Mentioned as the state of a Railroad Commissioner race, a neutral geographic reference.
- Wisconsin Referenced as the site of a gubernatorial race receiving Illinois support, a neutral mention.
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Elections
Illinois voters decide Senate, governor and Chicago school board races in midterm elections
PN Team • 1 week ago
Illinois holds its midterm election Nov. 3, with Democrat Juliana Stratton facing Republican Don Tracy for the Senate seat held by retiring Dick Durbin, and Gov. JB Pritzker seeking a third term against Republican Darren Bailey, who lost to Pritzker in 2022. Chicago voters will also elect the city's first fully elected school board, choosing 21 members across 20 districts plus a citywide board president. Other races include an open contest for state comptroller, all 118 Illinois House seats and 39 Senate seats, and five open congressional seats in the Chicago area that Democrats are favored to retain. Early voting is already underway statewide.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Dick Durbin Dick Durbin is mentioned neutrally as the retiring incumbent senator.
- Juliana Stratton Juliana Stratton is mentioned factually as the Democratic Senate candidate.
- Chicago Chicago is mentioned factually regarding its school board election and congressional races.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are mentioned as candidates and favored to retain congressional seats, a neutral factual statement.
- Illinois Illinois is the setting for the midterm elections described factually.
- Don Tracy Don Tracy is mentioned factually as the Republican Senate candidate.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are mentioned as candidates in a factual, balanced context.
- United States Senate The U.S. Senate seat is mentioned factually as being contested in the election.
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Elections
Illinois Senate candidates Stratton and Tracy meet in debate ahead of election
PN Team • 1 week ago
Democratic Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Republican Don Tracy, the state's former GOP chair, faced off in a televised forum as they compete to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Senate Democrat who is stepping down after nearly three decades in office. The forum, hosted by WTTW, took place as early voting is already underway in Illinois for several races, including Gov. JB Pritzker's bid for a third term. The Cook Political Report rates the Senate race as Solid Democratic, giving Stratton a significant structural advantage over Tracy heading into the general election.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Juliana Stratton Stratton is depicted as holding a significant structural advantage heading into the election.
- Democratic Party (United States) The race is rated Solid Democratic, giving Stratton and her party a structural advantage.
- Don Tracy Tracy is portrayed as the underdog facing a significant structural disadvantage in the race.
- Republican Party (United States) Tracy's party faces a steep structural disadvantage in this race per the Cook Political Report rating.
- Dick Durbin Durbin is mentioned factually as the retiring senator after a long, stable career.
- Illinois Illinois is mentioned as the location of the election and voting process without specific reputational framing.
- United States Senate Mentioned factually as the body the candidates seek to join.
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Elections
Illinois U.S. Senate Race Shapes Up as Three-Way Contest to Succeed Durbin
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Illinois voters will choose a successor to retiring Democratic Senator Dick Durbin, who is stepping down after 30 years in office. Three candidates are on the November ballot: Democrat Juliana Stratton, the state's Lieutenant Governor since 2019; Republican Don Tracy, an attorney and former chairman of the Illinois Republican Party; and Whitfield Harrington Jr., a pastor running under the newly forming American Center Party.
Stratton has emphasized affordability, proposing a $25 federal minimum wage and Medicare for all, with a focus on lowering healthcare costs. Tracy has criticized Democratic policies as driving up inflation and the cost of living, pledging to address root economic causes rather than embrace what he calls "socialism." Harrington, positioning his party as a centrist alternative, is campaigning on lowering food costs and making the first year of community college free.
The race is a closely watched contest in a reliably Democratic state, with cost-of-living concerns emerging as the dominant theme across all three campaigns.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Juliana Stratton Portrayed as an experienced sitting Lieutenant Governor with substantive policy proposals.
- Dick Durbin Described as retiring after a long, stable tenure, a mildly positive framing.
- Don Tracy Presented as a credible candidate with clear policy positions and professional background.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of Durbin and Stratton in a neutral, factual context.
- Republican Party (United States) Named as Tracy's party in a neutral electoral description.
- Illinois Named as the state holding the election, a neutral factual reference.
- United States Referenced only as the national context for the Senate race.
- United States Senate The race concerns a seat in this body, mentioned factually.
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Elections
Stratton and Tracy face off to succeed Durbin in Illinois Senate race
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Illinois voters will choose a successor to retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, who is stepping down after three decades in office. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, a Democrat who defeated Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi in a contentious primary, faces former Illinois GOP chairman Don Tracy in the general election. Independent candidate Whitfield Harrington Jr. is also on the ballot. The winner will join Sen. Tammy Duckworth in representing the blue-leaning state.
The candidates offer a sharp ideological contrast. Stratton is campaigning on progressive priorities including abolishing ICE, Medicare for All, restoring federal abortion protections, stronger gun restrictions, and opposition to President Trump's agenda. Tracy, a Springfield attorney and former chair of the Illinois Gaming Board, favors stronger border enforcement, market-based health care reforms, Second Amendment protections, and has defended parts of Trump's agenda while saying he won't be a "rubber stamp" for either party. Tracy has criticized Stratton for skipping several debates and forums. The two are scheduled to appear together Oct. 20 for a WTTW forum, their only planned joint appearance before Election Day.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Juliana Stratton Stratton is criticized for skipping debates and forums, a mildly unfavorable detail.
- Dick Durbin Durbin is described respectfully as a retiring senator ending three decades in office, a mild positive framing.
- Don Tracy Tracy is portrayed as a credentialed candidate with moderate positioning and proactive campaigning against a less-engaged opponent.
- Donald Trump Trump is referenced as a polarizing figure whose agenda both candidates position against or partially defend.
- Raja Krishnamoorthi Krishnamoorthi is noted as having lost a contentious primary, a mildly negative outcome.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned factually as Stratton's party affiliation without clear positive or negative framing.
- Illinois Illinois is the factual setting for the Senate race.
- Independent politician Whitfield Harrington Jr. is noted as an independent candidate in a neutral, factual mention.
- Springfield, Illinois Springfield is mentioned factually as Tracy's professional base.
- United States Senate The race is for a U.S. Senate seat, mentioned factually as context.
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Elections
Illinois’ 2nd Congressional District race features three contrasting candidates
PN Team • 1 week ago
Illinois' 2nd Congressional District, stretching from Chicago's South Side through the south suburbs to Kankakee and Danville, is holding an open-seat race after Democrat Robin Kelly, who held the seat since 2012, gave it up for an unsuccessful Senate bid. Democrat Donna Miller, a Cook County commissioner and former healthcare executive, won her primary over candidates including former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. Republican Mike Noack, a truck driver making his first political run, is campaigning on government dysfunction and immigration reform. Independent write-in candidate Ashley Banks, a former CTA bus driver and freelance journalist, says she entered the race to give downstate and rural voters a stronger voice. Early voting is underway ahead of Election Day on Nov. 3.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Jesse Jackson Jr. Jesse Jackson Jr. is mentioned as a losing primary candidate, a mildly unfavorable reference given his past controversies implied by context.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is referenced factually in connection with the candidates in the race.
- Illinois Illinois is mentioned as the state context for the congressional district race.
- Illinois's 2nd congressional district The article centers on this congressional district race, described factually and neutrally.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is mentioned factually as Noack's affiliation without evaluative framing.
- South Side, Chicago Chicago's South Side is mentioned as part of the district's geography without evaluative content.
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned only as the context for Kelly's unsuccessful bid, a neutral factual reference.
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Leading:
97.5%
Mike Bost
Vol $27.8k
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Leading:
96.5%
Darin LaHood
Vol $23k
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Vol $50.4k
New Jersey Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold
Leading:
97%
Above 4.00M
Vol $200.98
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Leading:
97%
Above 600K
Vol $519.33
Texas Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold
Leading:
97.5%
Above 8.8M
Vol $1.9k
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Leading:
97%
Above 1.8M
Vol $0.32