Illinois’ 16th District House Race Winner
Illinois’ 16th Congressional District will elect a U.S. House representative on November 3, 2026. The district, located in northern Illinois, has leaned Republican in recent cycles, making it one of the state’s more competitive House contests. Candidates from both major parties are expected to campaign on the incumbent’s record and broader national political trends.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on a handful of competitive districts like IL-16, where shifts in turnout or candidate strength can swing the outcome. A win here could signal broader momentum for either party heading into the 2026 midterms. Local economic conditions and national approval ratings will likely shape voter turnout in the district.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces a multi-candidate contest to a binary question: will the Democratic or Republican nominee win IL-16? This isolates partisan control of the seat from other variables like margin of victory or turnout levels. Traders are effectively weighing district partisanship, candidate quality, and national political conditions as they evaluate which party is favored to prevail in November.
Related terms
Total Volume
$164.7k
Kalshi $34.4k · Polymarket $130.3k
Leading Market
Darin LaHood
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 97%
Darin LaHood Volume
$34.3k
Kalshi $11.3k · Polymarket $23k
Darin LaHood 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi +0.70% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darin LaHoodRepublican Party | 96.8¢ | 7.0% | , trade Darin LaHood on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 97.0¢ | 5% | , trade Darin LaHood on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Paul NolleyDemocratic Party | 4.5¢ | 7.0% | , trade Paul Nolley on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 5.0¢ | 5% | , trade Paul Nolley on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darin LaHoodRepublican Party | $34,273.55 | ||
| Paul NolleyDemocratic Party | $130,460.09 |