Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District House Race 2026
Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District, anchored in Chicago and its western suburbs, holds its general election on November 3, 2026. The seat is currently held by a Democrat in a district that has leaned reliably blue in recent cycles. Voters will choose a representative to serve a two-year term in the U.S. House starting in January 2027.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often comes down to dozens of competitive districts, and even safe-leaning seats like IL-03 factor into the overall partisan math. A strong or weak showing here can signal broader turnout trends across Illinois and urban Democratic strongholds nationwide. Local results also shape the district’s influence in future redistricting and leadership fights.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders face is simply which party’s nominee wins the seat outright, reducing a multi-candidate contest into a binary proposition. This isolates partisan control from the noise of primary matchups, fundraising totals, or individual candidate quality. Traders are effectively weighing historical district partisanship against any signs of an unusual swing in a midterm cycle.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
United States Congress -
Redistricting -
Chicago -
Illinois -
Delia Ramirez
Total Volume
$44.2k
Kalshi $1.6k · Polymarket $42.6k
Leading Market
Delia Ramirez
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 98%
Delia Ramirez Volume
$18.4k
Kalshi $724.85 · Polymarket $17.7k
Delia Ramirez 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi +0.60% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delia RamirezDemocratic Party | 98.9¢ | 7.0% |
|
98.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Angel OakleyRepublican Party | 4.3¢ | 7.0% |
|
4.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Congress
Illinois Rep. Ramirez introduces bill to abolish DHS and ICE after raid on Omar’s home
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Illinois Rep. Delia Ramirez has introduced the "Reimagining Safety Act," legislation that would abolish the Department of Homeland Security and ICE, replacing DHS with a new Department of Community Safety. The move follows a federal raid on Rep. Ilhan Omar's Washington home, where Homeland Security Investigations agents searched the property early Monday as part of a Justice Department probe into decades-old paperwork, seizing her phone and issuing subpoenas to relatives. Omar called the raid an "outrageous abuse of power"; President Trump denied involvement.
Ramirez's 71-page bill would shift immigration enforcement to the Justice Department, customs to Treasury, and TSA/Coast Guard to Transportation, while redirecting DHS funds toward Medicare for All, housing, and education. It has fewer than seven co-sponsors and faces long odds in the Republican-controlled Congress. Republicans have called the proposal "utterly insane," while some moderate Democrats also oppose abolishing ICE. Separately, Ramirez joined advocacy groups to unveil a broader immigration reform platform with 19 congressional co-sponsors and backing from 54 civil rights organizations.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Delia Ramirez Ramirez is portrayed as a proactive legislator responding to perceived government overreach with a reform bill and broader immigration platform.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned denying involvement in a raid widely criticized as an abuse of power, a mildly negative association.
- Ilhan Omar Omar is the subject of a federal raid tied to a DOJ probe, though she is also portrayed sympathetically as a victim of alleged government overreach.
- Illinois Illinois is mentioned only as Ramirez's home state in a factual context.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned as the body where the bill faces long odds, a neutral factual reference.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is referenced as the chamber where the bill was introduced, a neutral procedural mention.
- Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. is mentioned as the location of Omar's home where the raid occurred, a factual detail.
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Administration Watch
FEMA denies Illinois disaster aid request amid Trump-Chicago tensions
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
The Federal Emergency Management Agency has rejected Illinois' request for a major disaster declaration following severe storms, flooding, straight-line winds and tornadoes that struck the state in August. FEMA Administrator Cameron Hamilton said federal assistance was "not warranted," affecting Champaign, Cook, Ford, Fulton, McLean, Tazewell, Vermilion and Will counties. Gov. JB Pritzker's office says the state will appeal, citing extensive damage to homes, infrastructure and widespread power outages. Pritzker accused Trump of playing politics with disaster relief, a charge echoed by Illinois Democrats including Sen. Dick Durbin and Rep. Robin Kelly, while Republican Rep. Darin LaHood also urged approval of the declaration.
The denial follows renewed attacks by Trump on Chicago over crime and comes amid separate reporting that Trump approved disaster aid for Ohio ahead of a campaign rally while leaving other states' requests pending. Trump has also approved aid for Hawaii and New Hampshire, complicating claims of a partisan pattern. The White House denies any political motive behind its disaster aid decisions.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is accused of playing politics with disaster aid, a clear reputational hit despite denials of partisan motive.
- Darin LaHood LaHood is portrayed favorably for urging approval of disaster aid despite being a Republican, showing bipartisan concern for constituents.
- Illinois Illinois is the central subject of the denied disaster aid request, framed as a victim of political tension.
- Cook County, Illinois Cook County is listed among areas affected by severe storms and denied federal disaster aid.
- Chicago Chicago is referenced amid renewed Trump attacks over crime, a mildly negative association.
- Hawaii Hawaii is mentioned as having received approved disaster aid, a neutral-to-positive contrast.
- New Hampshire New Hampshire is mentioned as having received approved disaster aid, a mild positive contrast.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic officials are portrayed as pushing back against FEMA's denial, a neutral political advocacy role.
- Dick Durbin Durbin is mentioned echoing criticism of Trump, a neutral political statement.
- Ohio Ohio is mentioned as receiving approved disaster aid ahead of a campaign rally, a neutral/tangentially positive mention.
- Republican Party (United States) A Republican congressman is shown bucking party lines to support the disaster declaration, a mixed/neutral mention for the party overall.
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Congress
Lawmakers introduce bill to require DHS disclosure in ICE, CBP use-of-force incidents
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Rep. Andrea Salinas (D-OR) introduced the ICE Shootings Transparency Act on Friday alongside Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-IL), legislation that would require the Department of Homeland Security and the U.S. Attorney General to share evidence with local law enforcement after officer-involved shootings and other use-of-force incidents involving ICE or CBP agents.
Salinas said the federal government has repeatedly withheld evidence from local investigators since the start of the current Trump administration. The bill follows the January 2026 death of Renee Good, shot by ICE in Minneapolis, after which Minnesota's Bureau of Criminal Apprehension said it was removed from a joint investigation with the FBI. Months later, ICE agents fatally shot Lorenzo Salgado Araujo in Texas under similar circumstances, with federal agencies again declining to cooperate with state and local authorities.
Ramirez used the announcement to renew calls to abolish ICE and dismantle DHS. CBP referred comment to DHS, which did not respond; DHS, ICE, and the Justice Department declined to comment. The bill has several Democratic cosponsors in the House.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Andrea Salinas Salinas is shown proactively introducing transparency legislation in response to government misconduct.
- Delia Ramirez Ramirez co-introduces the bill and renews calls to abolish ICE, a polarizing but proactive stance.
- Law enforcement Local law enforcement is depicted as being denied cooperation and evidence by federal agencies.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned neutrally as the body where the bill has cosponsors.
- Oregon Oregon is referenced only via Salinas's district designation, with no direct reputational content.
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Elections
Illinois Democrats Campaign Nationally Ahead of Election Day
PN Team • 4 days ago
With Election Day a week away, Illinois Democrats are campaigning beyond state lines to aid party allies nationally. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi backed Texas Railroad Commissioner candidate Jon Rosenthal; Sen. Tammy Duckworth campaigned for Sherrod Brown in Ohio; Rahm Emanuel canvassed in New Hampshire; and Rep. Danny Davis and successor nominee La Shawn Ford campaigned for Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate David Crowley. Gov. JB Pritzker is focused on his own reelection, holding a large cash advantage and backing fellow Democrats financially.
Big money is also flowing into Illinois races, including Chicago school board contests, with GOP megadonors Dick and Elizabeth Uihlein and wealthy Democratic-aligned groups both spending heavily to shape outcomes from Springfield to Chicago.
Sources:
Sentiment
- La Shawn Ford Described as actively campaigning for a gubernatorial candidate, a mildly favorable portrayal of political engagement.
- Raja Krishnamoorthi Portrayed as actively backing a candidate outside Illinois, reflecting engaged political leadership.
- Rahm Emanuel Noted as canvassing in New Hampshire, a neutral-to-mildly-positive depiction of political activity.
- Democratic Party (United States) Described as the party whose members are campaigning nationally, a neutral factual framing.
- Sherrod Brown Mentioned as the recipient of campaign support, a neutral factual reference.
- Illinois Central setting for the story's political campaigning activity, described neutrally.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned as the chamber several campaigning representatives belong to, with no evaluative content.
- United States Senate Referenced as the chamber of two campaigning senators, factual and neutral.
- Chicago Mentioned as a location where political spending is shaping outcomes, a neutral factual reference.
- New Hampshire Named only as the location of a canvassing trip, a neutral factual mention.
- Ohio Referenced as the state where a senator campaigned, a neutral geographic detail.
- Springfield, Illinois Named as one endpoint of political spending flows, a neutral factual mention.
- Texas Mentioned as the state of a Railroad Commissioner race, a neutral geographic reference.
- Wisconsin Referenced as the site of a gubernatorial race receiving Illinois support, a neutral mention.
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Elections
Melissa Bean, Jennifer Davis vie for Illinois’ 8th Congressional District
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Former U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean, a centrist Democrat, is seeking a political comeback in Illinois' 8th Congressional District, facing Republican newcomer Jennifer Davis in the Nov. 3 general election. The seat is open after Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who has endorsed Bean, left to run unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate. An independent write-in candidate, Christopher Krumpac, is also running.
The district, which stretches from the northwest Chicago suburbs to Elgin and the Fox River Valley, leans solidly Democratic. Bean, who first won the seat in 2004 and served until 2011, has outraised Davis, aided in part by a super PAC tied to AIPAC that drew progressive criticism during the primary. Davis, a tech entrepreneur making her first run for office, has loaned her own campaign $1 million to stay competitive.
The candidates diverge sharply on abortion, immigration, and Trump-era policies, with Bean casting the race as a check on the administration and Davis positioning herself as a political outsider focused on small business and economic concerns.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Melissa Bean Bean is portrayed as a credible, experienced candidate seeking a comeback with strong fundraising and an endorsement.
- Donald Trump Trump is referenced as a divisive figure whose policies are being contested, with Bean positioning herself as a check on his administration.
- Israel Israel is referenced via the AIPAC-tied super PAC that drew progressive criticism.
- Democratic Party (United States) The district leans Democratic and Bean is identified as a centrist Democrat seeking a comeback.
- Raja Krishnamoorthi Krishnamoorthi is mentioned positively as endorsing Bean, though his Senate bid failed.
- United States Senate Krishnamoorthi left the House seat to run unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate, a minor setback mention.
- Independent politician An independent write-in candidate, Christopher Krumpac, is mentioned as running, a neutral factual reference.
- Illinois Illinois is the state context for the district, mentioned factually.
- Illinois's 8th congressional district The article centers on the race for this congressional district, described neutrally.
- Republican Party (United States) Davis is identified as the Republican newcomer in a neutral, factual context.
- United States The United States is mentioned as the context for the general election and Senate race.
- United States House of Representatives The race concerns a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, mentioned factually.
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Congress
Illinois Democrats divided on how aggressively to confront Trump if party retakes Congress
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Illinois Democrats are split on strategy ahead of potential midterm gains that could hand their party control of the House and possibly the Senate. Some, like Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who is running for Senate, favor confrontation, including refusing to confirm Trump nominees or fund ICE and potentially ending the filibuster. Others, including Sen. Tammy Duckworth and Rep. Bill Foster, favor combining aggressive oversight of Trump officials and businesses with legislative wins, while downplaying quick impeachment. Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson and Trump himself, warn that a Democratic majority would mean relentless investigations and a renewed impeachment push.
The debate reflects broader uncertainty over Democratic strategy and control of Congress following the November midterms, a key variable for prediction markets tracking the 2026 elections and any renewed impeachment proceedings.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is depicted as a target of potential confrontation and warnings about impeachment, casting him in an adversarial light.
- Juliana Stratton Stratton is portrayed as taking a strong, principled stance favoring confrontation, a neutral-to-slightly favorable depiction.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is portrayed as internally divided over strategy, a neutral-to-mildly negative framing.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are shown warning about Democratic control, a factual but mildly adversarial mention.
- Illinois Illinois is mentioned as the state context for the Democrats discussed, a neutral geographic reference.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced neutrally as the body whose control is at stake.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned factually as a body Democrats could gain control of.
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned factually regarding potential Democratic control.
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Elections
Illinois Democrats project unity at state fair amid harassment and corruption fallout
PN Team • 2 months ago
Illinois Democrats gathered at the state fair in Springfield for their annual Democrats' Day, with Gov. JB Pritzker, Sens. Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth, Attorney General Kwame Raoul, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren delivering anti-Trump speeches while downplaying ideological rifts roiling the national party. Warren praised Senate candidate Juliana Stratton for standing up to AIPAC and corporate PACs, touching on divisions over Israel-Gaza policy and campaign finance that have proven more combustible elsewhere. But the celebratory tone was clouded by House Speaker Chris Welch's handling of a sexual harassment scandal involving former Rep. Harry Benton, and the recent indictment of Rep. Carol Ammons and her husband on fraud charges. Welch skipped the main event; three House Democrats have refused to join his working group on the harassment issue, calling its formation flawed.
A day later, Republicans held their own fairground rally, with Gov. candidate Darren Bailey and running mate Aaron Del Mar attacking Pritzker over cost of living, public safety and schools while avoiding mention of Trump. Senate candidate Don Tracy branded Stratton and Democratic Socialist allies as extreme, and House GOP leader Tony McCombie renewed criticism of Welch. Separately, the DNC narrowed its 2028 convention host shortlist to Boston, Denver and Philadelphia, excluding Chicago, which hosted in 2024 and remains in contention for 2032. Pritzker's campaign also launched a TV ad branding Bailey as extreme ahead of November.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Juliana Stratton Stratton is praised by Warren for standing up to AIPAC and corporate PACs, a favorable portrayal despite being attacked by opponents.
- Democratic Party (United States) The party is depicted projecting unity while facing internal rifts, harassment scandal fallout, and a corruption indictment.
- Elizabeth Warren Warren is shown praising a candidate for standing up to AIPAC and delivering a speech, a favorable portrayal.
- Dick Durbin Durbin is shown delivering a unifying anti-Trump speech at a party event, a mildly favorable mention.
- Donald Trump Trump is the target of anti-Trump speeches, portraying him negatively by association though not directly detailed.
- United States House of Representatives The House is implicated via the harassment scandal handling and Ammons' indictment, casting a shadow on the institution.
- Boston Boston is named as a finalist city for the 2028 DNC convention, a neutral-to-favorable civic mention.
- Denver Denver is named as a finalist city for the 2028 DNC convention, a neutral-to-favorable civic mention.
- Philadelphia Philadelphia is named as a finalist city for the 2028 DNC convention, a neutral-to-favorable civic mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are shown actively campaigning and criticizing Democrats, a mildly favorable strategic portrayal.
- Chicago Chicago is noted as excluded from the 2028 convention shortlist despite hosting in 2024, a mildly unfavorable civic note.
- Illinois Illinois is the setting for the political events described, a neutral geographic reference.
- Israel Israel is mentioned only in the context of policy divisions over Israel-Gaza, a neutral reference.
- Springfield, Illinois Springfield is the location of the state fair events described, a neutral geographic reference.
- United States Senate Referenced only through senators' speeches, a neutral institutional mention.
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Elections
Chicago mayoral candidate sues rivals over dual office bids
PN Team • 1 month ago
Chicago mayoral candidate William J. Quinlan has filed a lawsuit against fellow contenders Alexi Giannoulias, Mike Quigley and Maria Pappas, arguing they cannot legally run for mayor while also seeking reelection to their current offices. Quinlan's suit cites the Illinois Election Code, which requires candidates seeking two "incompatible" offices to withdraw from all but one if they could not serve in both simultaneously. Quinlan is asking for an expedited hearing and ruling before October 18.
The three defendants are up for reelection this November to their existing posts — secretary of state, Congress, and Cook County treasurer, respectively — while the Chicago mayoral race takes place next year, meaning none currently holds a city office. The Quigley campaign has dismissed the suit as frivolous, while a Giannoulias spokesperson said he remains focused on Chicago issues rather than the litigation. Candidate Willie Wilson has separately raised ethical objections to the practice. The stakes are especially notable for Giannoulias, who has built a roughly $22 million campaign fund. Courts will now decide whether the rivals can remain on ballots for both their current offices and mayor.
Sentiment
- Cook County, Illinois Cook County is referenced only as Maria Pappas's current office, a neutral factual detail.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned only as the office Mike Quigley currently holds, a factual reference without reputational weight.
- Chicago Chicago is the setting for the mayoral race and lawsuit, mentioned factually without reputational implication.
- Illinois Illinois is mentioned only in reference to the state's election code, a neutral legal citation.
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Elections
Illinois voters decide Senate, governor and Chicago school board races in midterm elections
PN Team • 1 week ago
Illinois holds its midterm election Nov. 3, with Democrat Juliana Stratton facing Republican Don Tracy for the Senate seat held by retiring Dick Durbin, and Gov. JB Pritzker seeking a third term against Republican Darren Bailey, who lost to Pritzker in 2022. Chicago voters will also elect the city's first fully elected school board, choosing 21 members across 20 districts plus a citywide board president. Other races include an open contest for state comptroller, all 118 Illinois House seats and 39 Senate seats, and five open congressional seats in the Chicago area that Democrats are favored to retain. Early voting is already underway statewide.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Dick Durbin Dick Durbin is mentioned neutrally as the retiring incumbent senator.
- Juliana Stratton Juliana Stratton is mentioned factually as the Democratic Senate candidate.
- Chicago Chicago is mentioned factually regarding its school board election and congressional races.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are mentioned as candidates and favored to retain congressional seats, a neutral factual statement.
- Illinois Illinois is the setting for the midterm elections described factually.
- Don Tracy Don Tracy is mentioned factually as the Republican Senate candidate.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are mentioned as candidates in a factual, balanced context.
- United States Senate The U.S. Senate seat is mentioned factually as being contested in the election.
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Elections
Illinois 2026 Statewide Races Set as Candidates Face Off for Senate, Governor and More
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Illinois voters head to the polls Nov. 3 to fill an open U.S. Senate seat and decide contests for governor, attorney general, secretary of state, comptroller and treasurer. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton faces Republican Don Tracy for the Senate seat being vacated by Dick Durbin. Gov. J.B. Pritzker, running with new lieutenant governor pick Christian Mitchell, seeks a third term in a rematch against Darren Bailey, who has Donald Trump's endorsement and running mate Aaron Del Mar.
Incumbent Attorney General Kwame Raoul faces Republican Bob Fioretti, while Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, now also running for Chicago mayor, is challenged by Republican Diane Harris. With Comptroller Susana Mendoza not seeking re-election amid her own mayoral bid, Democrat Margaret Croke and Republican Bryan Drew are competing for that office. Treasurer Mike Frerichs seeks re-election against Republican Max Solomon. The races will shape state policy on taxes, spending oversight, abortion access and Illinois' relationship with the Trump administration, with early and mail voting available ahead of Election Day.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Juliana Stratton Stratton is highlighted as the Democratic Senate candidate, a notable career advancement opportunity.
- Dick Durbin Durbin is mentioned simply as the retiring incumbent, a neutral factual note.
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsement is noted, tying him to the race in a way that could be polarizing.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidates are described as competing in multiple races without particular favor or criticism.
- Don Tracy Tracy is mentioned as a candidate without further characterization.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican candidates are described as competing in multiple races without particular favor or criticism.
- Chicago Chicago is mentioned regarding mayoral bids tangential to the main story.
- Illinois Illinois is the central location for this factual election overview.
- United States Senate The open Senate seat is central to the factual election overview.
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