California Governor Election: Who Will Win in 2026

The California Supreme Court heard oral arguments on whether Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco must return more than 650,000 ballots (over 1,400 boxes) seized in March from local election officials during an investigation into unsubstantiated fraud claims tied to a November special election on redistricting (Proposition 50). Justices appeared skeptical of arguments from Bianco's attorney, Bradley Hertz, who claimed sheriffs can seize ballots under warrant regardless of state election law, and that Attorney General Rob Bonta lacks authority to order sheriffs to stand down. Justices questioned both points, with one calling Hertz's reasoning "bizarre" and another "counterintuitive."

Bianco, a former Republican gubernatorial candidate, defied Bonta's order to halt the seizure and began counting ballots before the state Supreme Court intervened in April. Bianco said he would comply if ordered to return the ballots but may continue his investigation regardless. Voting rights advocates, including likely gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra, frame the case as a test of sheriff authority ahead of the 2026 midterms amid broader efforts by Trump-aligned officials to challenge election administration. A ruling is expected in coming months.

Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton met Wednesday, Sept. 30, in what is expected to be their only one-on-one debate before the Nov. 3 general election to succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom. CNN hosted the hour-long, prime-time debate in Los Angeles, with Jake Tapper and Dana Bash moderating.

The two clashed over the state's direction, with cost of living emerging as the top issue for voters. Becerra, a former congressman, state attorney general and Biden administration health secretary, pitched himself as the experienced choice, while Hilton, a Trump-endorsed former Fox News host, blamed Democratic leadership for California's high costs.

Polls show Becerra leading by wide margins, reflecting the state's heavily Democratic voter registration. The debate is seen as low-risk for Becerra but a make-or-break moment for Hilton, whose embrace of Trump's endorsement remains a liability with California voters. Becerra faces scrutiny over housing costs and unresolved homelessness under Democratic governance. No Republican has won the governorship since Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Hilton faces a steep climb in a state that hasn't elected one in 20 years.

Healthcare affordability has emerged as a central issue in California's governor's race, but Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton have offered few specifics on cost or funding. Becerra, who calls himself the "healthcare governor," touts his record defending the Affordable Care Act and a major antitrust settlement against Sutter Health as attorney general. He pledges to pursue universal coverage, prioritize primary care, and continue covering Californians affected by federal Medicaid cuts, but has not explained how he would pay for it, even as state officials warn the cuts could cost California up to $30 billion annually.

Hilton's "Working Class Healthcare Guarantee," unveiled last week, calls for price transparency, replacing part of Medi-Cal with health spending accounts, and a reinsurance program to stabilize premiums, though he could not estimate costs or savings. Both candidates support expanding low-cost drug programs. Becerra has raised over $33 million, including substantial healthcare industry donations, and leads polling by a wide margin heading toward their CNN debate.

Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton met on CNN for a debate ahead of California's Nov. 3 gubernatorial election, moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. The exchange was widely panned as lackluster, with both candidates drawing criticism for weak performances. Becerra, the former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, repeated claims that he has "fought all my life to defend immigrants," a record critics dispute given his quiet stance during the Obama administration's deportation policies. He also accused Hilton of wanting to "welcome immigrants who look like you, but deport immigrants who look like me," a remark Hilton called "disgraceful."

Hilton, a former Fox News host who received Donald Trump's primary endorsement, avoided directly answering whether he'd direct state law enforcement to assist federal immigration enforcement. Polling from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies shows Becerra with a substantial lead and more favorable overall ratings than Hilton heading into the final weeks of the race.

A recent Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll shows Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton with support from 37% of California voters, trailing Democrat Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary, who holds 55%. About 7% remain undecided. The two are set to meet in their first debate on September 30 in Los Angeles, televised on CNN, which could shift the current standing.

Hilton, a former strategist for ex-British Prime Minister David Cameron and a Brexit supporter, has never held elected office and only became a U.S. citizen in 2021 after relocating to California in 2012. He has received an endorsement from President Donald Trump, whose immigration policies contrast with Hilton's own background as the son of Hungarian refugees. Despite trailing significantly, Hilton is seen as outperforming typical Republican prospects in heavily Democratic California, where registered Republicans make up about 25% of voters compared to 45% who are Democrats. Polling could shift meaningfully once debate performances are factored in.

A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll shows Democratic gubernatorial nominee Xavier Becerra leading Republican Steve Hilton 58% to 33% among likely California voters, up from a 55%-37% edge in May. A separate September Public Policy Institute of California survey similarly put Becerra ahead 60% to 38%. Cost of living, including housing and fuel prices, ranked as voters' top concern. Hilton has downplayed the gap, arguing Californians want change after 16 years of one-party rule and citing campaign momentum.

The consistency of two double-digit leads is notable, but recent election history urges caution about treating September polling as a final verdict ahead of the November 3 vote. Analyses of the last three presidential elections found polls systematically underestimated Republican support relative to Democrats, and 2022 Wisconsin Senate polling swung sharply in the campaign's final weeks. Turnout modeling and late-deciding voters remain wildcards. For now, available data shows Becerra with a substantial advantage, though the race's final outcome is not yet determined.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has vetoed Assembly Bill 2164, which would have barred California governors from honoring extradition requests from states seeking to prosecute people for performing or assisting with abortions or gender transition procedures banned elsewhere. The bill passed the Democratic-controlled Legislature largely along party lines. Newsom said he supports the underlying goal but objected to the Legislature binding a future governor's executive authority over extradition, calling it "an entirely executive function" that should remain discretionary.

California is among roughly 20 states with shield laws protecting abortion or gender-affirming care providers. Reproductive Freedom for All criticized the veto, warning that a potential win by Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton could leave providers vulnerable, though polling shows Democrat Xavier Becerra with a substantial lead in the race. Newsom, seen as a likely 2028 Democratic presidential contender and currently polling second behind Kamala Harris in early primary surveys, touted his broader record on reproductive rights protections despite the veto.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta has publicly pushed back on Paramount Skydance's tactics in the antitrust suit over its $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, calling a recent motion to force a $1.88 billion bond onto taxpayers a sign of "desperation" and dismissing threats to relocate Paramount out of California as ineffective pressure. Bonta, who leads 12 state attorneys general suing to block the merger ahead of a March trial, said he remains open to settlement talks but only through "structural," not "behavioral," remedies — such as divesting cable channels rather than pledging future theatrical output.

Bonta noted some shifting positions among stakeholders, with the DGA, IATSE and Cinema United now favoring settlement, though WGA, SAG-AFTRA and the Teamsters still oppose the deal. He said Governor Newsom and gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra's comments favoring negotiation align with his own preference to resolve disputes outside court, while insisting the case remains a straightforward antitrust matter unaffected by press-freedom concerns over CNN or CBS News ownership. Arizona lawmakers continue to scrutinize taxpayer exposure from the bond dispute.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta reached a settlement allowing the $111 billion Paramount-Warner Bros. merger to proceed, ending a 12-state antitrust challenge, but the deal has drawn criticism from within the Democratic coalition itself. Sources say Gov. Gavin Newsom, LA Mayor Karen Bass and gubernatorial front-runner Xavier Becerra pressured Bonta to settle, while attorneys general in New York and Connecticut wanted stronger concessions before ultimately signing on. Paramount agreed to production commitments, spending on U.S. film production, preserving its California lots, and an oversight board meant to protect editorial independence at CNN and CBS News, both folded into the merger under CEO David Ellison.

Critics, including Sen. Cory Booker and the Writers Guild of America, argue the deal is too weak and that Ellison's threat to relocate Paramount out of California influenced the outcome. Some attorneys general called it only a partial win, while Bonta defended it as enforceable, with divestment penalties if Paramount fails to comply.