Who Will Win the 2026 California Governor’s Race

Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton met Wednesday, Sept. 30, in what is expected to be their only one-on-one debate before the Nov. 3 general election to succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom. CNN hosted the hour-long, prime-time debate in Los Angeles, with Jake Tapper and Dana Bash moderating.

The two clashed over the state's direction, with cost of living emerging as the top issue for voters. Becerra, a former congressman, state attorney general and Biden administration health secretary, pitched himself as the experienced choice, while Hilton, a Trump-endorsed former Fox News host, blamed Democratic leadership for California's high costs.

Polls show Becerra leading by wide margins, reflecting the state's heavily Democratic voter registration. The debate is seen as low-risk for Becerra but a make-or-break moment for Hilton, whose embrace of Trump's endorsement remains a liability with California voters. Becerra faces scrutiny over housing costs and unresolved homelessness under Democratic governance. No Republican has won the governorship since Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Hilton faces a steep climb in a state that hasn't elected one in 20 years.

Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton met on CNN for a debate ahead of California's Nov. 3 gubernatorial election, moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. The exchange was widely panned as lackluster, with both candidates drawing criticism for weak performances. Becerra, the former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, repeated claims that he has "fought all my life to defend immigrants," a record critics dispute given his quiet stance during the Obama administration's deportation policies. He also accused Hilton of wanting to "welcome immigrants who look like you, but deport immigrants who look like me," a remark Hilton called "disgraceful."

Hilton, a former Fox News host who received Donald Trump's primary endorsement, avoided directly answering whether he'd direct state law enforcement to assist federal immigration enforcement. Polling from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies shows Becerra with a substantial lead and more favorable overall ratings than Hilton heading into the final weeks of the race.

Healthcare affordability has emerged as a central issue in California's governor's race, but Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton have offered few specifics on cost or funding. Becerra, who calls himself the "healthcare governor," touts his record defending the Affordable Care Act and a major antitrust settlement against Sutter Health as attorney general. He pledges to pursue universal coverage, prioritize primary care, and continue covering Californians affected by federal Medicaid cuts, but has not explained how he would pay for it, even as state officials warn the cuts could cost California up to $30 billion annually.

Hilton's "Working Class Healthcare Guarantee," unveiled last week, calls for price transparency, replacing part of Medi-Cal with health spending accounts, and a reinsurance program to stabilize premiums, though he could not estimate costs or savings. Both candidates support expanding low-cost drug programs. Becerra has raised over $33 million, including substantial healthcare industry donations, and leads polling by a wide margin heading toward their CNN debate.

A recent Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll shows Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton with support from 37% of California voters, trailing Democrat Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary, who holds 55%. About 7% remain undecided. The two are set to meet in their first debate on September 30 in Los Angeles, televised on CNN, which could shift the current standing.

Hilton, a former strategist for ex-British Prime Minister David Cameron and a Brexit supporter, has never held elected office and only became a U.S. citizen in 2021 after relocating to California in 2012. He has received an endorsement from President Donald Trump, whose immigration policies contrast with Hilton's own background as the son of Hungarian refugees. Despite trailing significantly, Hilton is seen as outperforming typical Republican prospects in heavily Democratic California, where registered Republicans make up about 25% of voters compared to 45% who are Democrats. Polling could shift meaningfully once debate performances are factored in.

A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll shows Democratic gubernatorial nominee Xavier Becerra leading Republican Steve Hilton 58% to 33% among likely California voters, up from a 55%-37% edge in May. A separate September Public Policy Institute of California survey similarly put Becerra ahead 60% to 38%. Cost of living, including housing and fuel prices, ranked as voters' top concern. Hilton has downplayed the gap, arguing Californians want change after 16 years of one-party rule and citing campaign momentum.

The consistency of two double-digit leads is notable, but recent election history urges caution about treating September polling as a final verdict ahead of the November 3 vote. Analyses of the last three presidential elections found polls systematically underestimated Republican support relative to Democrats, and 2022 Wisconsin Senate polling swung sharply in the campaign's final weeks. Turnout modeling and late-deciding voters remain wildcards. For now, available data shows Becerra with a substantial advantage, though the race's final outcome is not yet determined.

Gov. Gavin Newsom signed AB 1130, giving California campaign finance regulators the power to fine social media influencers up to $5,000 per violation for failing to disclose paid political content, with violations also referable to law enforcement as potential misdemeanors under the Political Reform Act of 1974. California has required disclosure of paid posts about state and local campaigns since 2023 but previously lacked an enforcement mechanism. The bill was one of 13 election-related social media measures Newsom signed as a package aimed at protecting state elections from interference.

Assembly member Marc Berman introduced the bill after reports that campaigns were quietly paying influencers during California's contested gubernatorial primary. Billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer paid numerous creators to post favorably about his campaign across TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Reddit, many without proper disclosure, prompting complaints to the state's Fair Political Practices Commission against both Steyer and rival Xavier Becerra, who won the primary and will face Republican Steve Hilton in November. The commission has closed one inquiry into Steyer's campaign, though another remains open; Steyer's campaign has called the allegations baseless. Texas has similar rules, and Congress and other states are weighing comparable regulations.

California voters will choose a new lieutenant governor on Nov. 3, as term limits bar both Gov. Gavin Newsom and incumbent Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis from seeking the office again. The race pits Democrat Fiona Ma, the current state treasurer and a former assemblymember and San Francisco supervisor, against Republican Gloria Romero, a former Democratic state Senate majority leader who switched parties in 2024 over disagreements including public safety and COVID mandates.

Ma, backed by the California Democratic Party and major labor and equality groups, says she would focus on affordability through housing production, streamlined business permitting, and more affordable higher education. Romero, endorsed by the California Republican Party, has pledged to cut government "bureaucracy and waste," halve the number of state commissions, and fight antisemitism on college campuses. The position carries duties including chairing the State Lands Commission, serving on university system boards, presiding over the state Senate, and acting as governor when the chief executive is out of state.

California's carbon market, the cap-and-invest program created under AB 32, underwent major changes this year. A contentious reauthorization is projected to roughly halve annual auction revenue while opening billions in free permits for polluters investing in decarbonization. Gov. Gavin Newsom also announced plans to link the state's market with Washington's and eventually Quebec's, expected to raise credit prices and take effect next year. Critics say the changes push California's 2030 and 2045 emissions targets further out of reach, while regulators and some economists call the program still functional. The next governor will appoint air board members, oversee linkage rulemaking, and shape climate policy; neither gubernatorial candidate has made it a campaign focus.

California's High-Speed Rail Authority secured only one of the several legislative priorities it said were needed to keep the Merced-to-Bakersfield rail segment on schedule. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed Senate Bill 1425, letting the authority issue permits to utilities, local governments and developers on authority-controlled land, but broader proposals—faster environmental reviews, expedited court dispute resolution, sales tax exemptions on construction materials, and new authority to tap local tax revenue near the rail line—stalled or were never formally introduced. Local officials strongly opposed the tax-revenue idea, calling it a raid on funds needed for services and road repairs.

A separate bill from Sen. Henry Stern to let the authority spend more state climate funds outside the Central Valley segment died in committee, as did a utility-relocation bill from Sen. Scott Wiener. The authority and lawmakers traded blame over the losses. The project, now estimated to cost $126-231 billion with full buildout by 2040, depends on $1 billion in annual state carbon-auction funding that could shrink under pending climate rule changes, adding further uncertainty to its timeline.