California’s 4th District House Race 2026
California’s 4th Congressional District, a sprawling area covering parts of the Sierra Nevada foothills and Sacramento’s eastern exurbs, heads to the polls in November 2026 to elect its U.S. House representative. The district has leaned Republican in recent cycles but has drawn competitive challenges. Candidates are campaigning on issues ranging from water policy to affordability ahead of the general election.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often comes down to a handful of competitive seats, and districts like CA-04 can swing based on local turnout and candidate strength. The outcome affects which party sets the legislative agenda in Washington for the next two years. A shift here would signal broader momentum in California’s inland and rural-leaning districts.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate contest into a binary question: which named candidate wins the seat. This isolates the outcome dimension entirely, stripping away vote-share nuance in favor of a single winner-take-all resolution. Traders are effectively weighing campaign momentum, fundraising, and district lean to assess which candidate is better positioned heading into November.
Related terms
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United States House of Representatives -
United States Congress -
California -
General election -
Sacramento, California -
Water resource policy -
California's 45th congressional district -
Sierra Nevada
Total Volume
$184.1k
Kalshi $97.8k · Polymarket $86.4k
Leading Market
Mike Thompson
Kalshi 52% · Polymarket 50%
Mike Thompson Volume
$79.9k
Kalshi $45.9k · Polymarket $34k
Mike Thompson 24h Change
-34.00%
Kalshi -13.00% · Polymarket -34.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thompson | 52.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Mike Thompson on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 52.0¢ | 5% | , trade Mike Thompson on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Eric Jones | 46.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Eric Jones on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 49.0¢ | 5% | , trade Eric Jones on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thompson | $79,896.02 | ||
| Eric Jones | $104,252.20 |