California’s 33rd District House Race 2026
California’s 33rd Congressional District, anchored in the Los Angeles-area communities around Koreatown, Culver City, and parts of the San Fernando Valley, will choose its U.S. House representative in the November 2026 midterms. The seat is one of many House contests nationwide that will shape the chamber’s partisan balance. Candidate filings and primary results will determine the field heading into the general election.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House hinges on dozens of individual races like this one, making district-level outcomes a proxy for broader national political trends. The result will affect representation for Angelenos on issues ranging from housing to federal funding priorities. Midterm elections also serve as a referendum on the sitting president’s first two years in office.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces a crowded, multi-candidate race down to a binary question: which party ultimately holds the seat. This isolates partisan control from the noise of individual candidate dynamics, turnout variance, and redistricting effects that could otherwise complicate forecasting. Traders are effectively weighing historical district lean against national political momentum heading into 2026.
Related terms
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United States House of Representatives -
United States Congress -
Redistricting -
Los Angeles -
Culver City, California -
San Fernando Valley -
Koreatown, Los Angeles -
Pete Aguilar -
California's 33rd congressional district
Total Volume
$11.5k
Kalshi $6.9k · Polymarket $4.7k
Leading Market
Pete Aguilar
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 97%
Pete Aguilar Volume
$9.5k
Kalshi $6.1k · Polymarket $3.3k
Pete Aguilar 24h Change
-2.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket -2.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete AguilarDemocratic Party | 98.3¢ | 7.0% | , trade Pete Aguilar on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 97.0¢ | 5% | , trade Pete Aguilar on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Stephanie M. VargasRepublican Party | — | — | — | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Stephanie M. Vargas on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Stephanie VargasRepublican Party | 4.1¢ | 7.0% | , trade Stephanie Vargas on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete AguilarDemocratic Party | $9,460.35 | ||
| Stephanie M. VargasRepublican Party | $1,320.98 | No market | |
| Stephanie VargasRepublican Party | $761.81 | No market |