Arizona’s 7th District House Race: Who Will Win
Arizona’s 7th Congressional District, a heavily Democratic-leaning seat along the state’s southern border, will have a new representative following the death of longtime incumbent Raúl Grijalva in early 2025. A special election is being held to fill the vacancy, with both major parties fielding candidates to represent the district for the remainder of the term and beyond. The seat has been a Democratic stronghold for decades, making the general election largely a formality while the primary draws the most attention.
Why Markets Are Watching
The outcome determines who represents a district anchored in Tucson and the border region at a time when immigration and border policy remain flashpoints in national politics. A new member also affects the balance of experience and seniority within Arizona’s congressional delegation. Special elections like this one can also serve as early signals of voter enthusiasm ahead of the 2026 midterms.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
Markets here are less about suspense over party control, given the district’s strong Democratic lean, and more about confirming which individual candidate ultimately wins the seat. Separate contracts tied to specific named candidates let traders isolate intra-party dynamics rather than simple partisan outcomes. The real signal is how quickly consensus forms around a frontrunner versus how long the race stays competitive among multiple contenders.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
Arizona -
By-election -
Mexico–United States border -
Tucson, Arizona
Total Volume
$350.4k
Kalshi $1.3k · Polymarket $349.1k
Leading Market
Adelita Grijalva
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 99%
Adelita Grijalva Volume
$7.2k
Kalshi $445.16 · Polymarket $6.7k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelita GrijalvaDemocratic Party | 98.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade Adelita Grijalva on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Adelita Grijalva on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Daniel Francis Butierez Sr.Republican Party | 3.4¢ | 7.0% | , trade Daniel Francis Butierez Sr. on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Daniel Butierez Sr.Republican Party | — | — | — | 3.0¢ | 5% | , trade Daniel Butierez Sr. on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adelita GrijalvaDemocratic Party | $7,167.51 | ||
| Daniel Francis Butierez Sr.Republican Party | $903.15 | No market | |
| Daniel Butierez Sr.Republican Party | $342,335.41 | No market |