Unemployment

Ohio's 2026 Senate race pits Democrat Sherrod Brown, seeking a comeback after losing his 2024 reelection to Bernie Moreno, against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed after JD Vance became vice president. The winner serves the remaining two years of Vance's term. Brown has secured his party's nomination, and recent polling, including a New York Times/Siena survey, shows him with a consistent lead over Husted, though Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority.

The contest is a key marker of whether Democrats can compete in a state that has trended Republican, and factors into the broader fight for Senate control, with Democrats needing four seats to flip the chamber. Economy, health care, and trade are expected to dominate the campaign, with Husted's ties to Trump and Brown's labor-focused platform shaping voter perceptions.

Ohio's 2026 Senate race will pit former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his 2024 reelection bid, against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed after JD Vance resigned to become vice president. The winner serves the final two years of Vance's term. Democrats need four seats to flip Senate control, making the contest a key test of whether they can compete in a state that has trended Republican. Economic issues — fuel and grocery costs, trade with Canada, and health care — are expected to dominate the campaign. Recent polling shows Brown leading Husted, with Husted facing scrutiny over his ties to President Trump.

Wisconsin, joined by a dozen other states, has filed a federal lawsuit against the Trump administration over the termination of grant funding meant to modernize state unemployment insurance systems. The suit, led by Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul and Maryland Attorney General Anthony Brown, was filed in the U.S. Court of Federal Claims and argues the terminations breached the states' grant agreements.

Wisconsin began updating its unemployment system, which dates to 1970, after the COVID-19 pandemic overwhelmed it and delayed benefits for residents. A 2021 state law authorized roughly $100 million for the overhaul, with nearly $80 million in federal funding secured under the Biden administration via the American Rescue Plan Act. In May 2025, the U.S. Department of Labor told Wisconsin it was ending the grant, saying it no longer aligned with the department's funding priorities; officials later cited efforts to curb fraud and waste. More than $45 million was terminated across the states involved, about $10 million of it for Wisconsin, forcing the state to cancel its IT modernization contract and halt a fraud-detection database project.

President Trump rallied supporters in Vandalia, Ohio, urging them to "just pretend I'm running" ahead of the midterms, mixing crude attacks on Democrats with warnings that he would be less willing to help Ohio secure federal funds if Democrats win key races. He appeared alongside Senate candidate Jon Husted and gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, both pledging to work closely with him despite his sagging approval. Trump also told the crowd he would push the Rate Payer Protection Act to address data center electricity costs if Husted wins.

Trump's national approval sits around 38%, with Ohio-specific numbers even lower, as majorities disapprove of his tariffs, immigration policies, and support for unregulated data centers—an issue Republicans fear could hurt Husted's race against Sherrod Brown. Ohio gas prices have risen 35% over the past year to over $4 a gallon, and Canadian retaliatory tariffs have hit billions in Ohio exports. Trump also defended his deportation push targeting Haitian immigrants in Springfield, a day after Gov. Mike DeWine, who skipped the rally, attended the funeral of a young Haitian immigrant who died by suicide following an immigration enforcement order. Protesters gathered outside the venue, and outside groups have made Husted-Brown the nation's second-costliest Senate race.

Iowa Republicans, who have held a decade-long trifecta in the state alongside President Trump's rise, are voicing rare public anxiety ahead of the 2026 midterms. At a fundraiser honoring outgoing Sen. Joni Ernst, Sen. Chuck Grassley, 93, warned of a scenario where a Democratic governor could pick his Senate successor, underscoring how competitive Iowa has become. Conservative radio host Steve Deace reported that internal GOP polling shows the state trending roughly 10 points bluer than in 2024, endangering several U.S. House seats.

Rising gas and diesel prices tied to the Iran conflict, a trade dispute with China hurting soybean farmers, and a shrinking first-quarter economy have squeezed Iowa voters, denting Trump's approval even in this deep-red state. Democrat Rob Sand, the state auditor leading gubernatorial polling, is campaigning on anti-partisan themes against Republican Zach Lahn, while Josh Turek challenges Rep. Ashley Hinson for Senate. Cook Political Report now rates two of Iowa's four House seats as toss-ups and the governor's race as leaning Democratic, a marked shift for a state Trump carried by over 13 points in 2024.

New Census Bureau data show California's official poverty rate at 10.7%, matching the national figure. But the more detailed supplemental poverty measure, which accounts for cost of living, puts California at 17.8%, well above the national rate of 13%. For the first time in years, California is not the highest-ranked state on this measure — Louisiana has surpassed it at 19.8%. While poverty in Southern states is driven mainly by low incomes, California's elevated rate stems largely from high housing, utility, and transportation costs.

A related California Poverty Measure from the Public Policy Institute of California and Stanford found a similar 17.4% rate for 2024, and estimated that 35% of Californians are poor or near-poor — a figure matching Medi-Cal enrollment in the state. The findings complicate Governor Gavin Newsom's portrayal of California as an economic model, as he weighs a potential 2028 presidential run, since critics could use the poverty and cost-of-living data against him politically.

Oregon's gubernatorial race took center stage over Labor Day, as incumbent Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek and Republican challenger Christine Drazan both courted worker support ahead of the November election. Kotek attended the Northwest Oregon Labor Council's annual Labor Day picnic at Oaks Amusement Park in Portland, telling thousands of union members she would back them at the bargaining table. Attendees included members of AFSCME, SEIU, Teamsters and UFCW, along with other Democratic officials such as Secretary of State Tobias Read.

Drazan, who did not attend a Labor Day event, posted a pro-worker video pledging to bring jobs and investment back to Oregon and reverse business relocations out of the state. The contest comes as Oregon faces a rising cost of living and unemployment ticking above the national rate. Oregon has a strong union tradition, with unionization rates well above the national average, and labor groups have historically leaned Democratic, though both parties are working to win worker votes this cycle.

Elkhart County, Indiana — home to more than 80% of the world's RV production and long viewed as a bellwether for the national economy — is showing signs of softening after a pandemic-era boom. Manufacturing makes up more than half of the metro area's workforce, and a New York Times analysis found roughly a quarter of local jobs sit in industries targeted by early retaliatory tariffs. Community leaders are split on the effect of President Trump's tariff policy: some, including the local economic development CEO, say tariffs are pushing manufacturers to reshore supply chains, while others, including a local factory worker running for county council and the county GOP's vice chair, say tariffs and higher costs have dampened RV demand, contributing to layoffs, facility closures, and consolidation. An RV manufacturer in Bristol is set to close in September, cutting 105 jobs.

Beyond tariffs, the county is investing state redevelopment funds to retain young workers and has drawn a diverse, immigrant-heavy workforce. Politically, local leaders describe unusual bipartisan cooperation, even as tension grows with state government over property tax legislation ahead of the coming election.