Tsunami

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said fallout from the Iran conflict, especially its effect on gas prices, grocery costs, and mortgage rates, contributed to a national wave of voter anger against Republicans in Tuesday's midterms, which he described as a near "extinction level event" for the GOP. Florida itself avoided the worst of the backlash, with Republicans narrowly holding the governor's mansion, a U.S. Senate seat, and statewide cabinet posts, but several races were decided by thin margins. Democrats still gained legislative and congressional seats despite record GOP turnout, and DeSantis said the losses reflected anti-Trump sentiment rather than Democratic policy appeal.

Gov. Gavin Newsom and the California Democratic Party are sending 134 election law attorneys, 1,000 voter protection volunteers, and 54 hotline operators to five congressional districts for the midterms, after the White House accused the state of allowing noncitizens to vote illegally. The move follows a federal judge blocking the Justice Department from forcing California to set aside 20,000 ballots it alleged were fraudulently cast; data scientists reviewing that list found it riddled with errors, including thousands of names that don't match state voter rolls. Newsom has since warned federal courts that agents may try to seize ballots before results are certified, calling it an attempt to undermine Democratic midterm gains.

Democrat Angie Nixon, who upset Alex Vindman in Florida's Senate primary by nearly 12 points, is now challenging Republican Senator Ashley Moody in a race most analysts consider a longshot for Democrats. Florida has 1.5 million more registered Republicans than Democrats, and polls show Moody leading, though margins vary. Nixon faces a severe funding gap, having raised under $1 million to Moody's more than $11 million as of late July, limiting her ability to counter attack ads tying her to the Democratic Socialists of America.

National Democrats have been slow to invest in the race, but Senators Chris Murphy and Bernie Sanders are campaigning with Nixon this week, with Sanders contributing $250,000. Nixon is running on universal health care, child care, and affordable housing, and is working to mobilize Black voters and women while courting GOP-leaning communities. She has embraced an unapologetically progressive, grassroots-driven campaign, drawing comparisons to gubernatorial nominee David Jolly's more moderate crossover strategy, with both races seen as tests of competing Democratic approaches ahead of 2028. Analysts say Trump's unpopularity and cost-of-living concerns give her an opening, but she would need exceptionally high Democratic turnout combined with Republican voters staying home to overcome the state's structural disadvantages.

Democrats have added Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, held by Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, to the DCCC's "red to blue" program targeting vulnerable GOP incumbents. Challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate, is betting that voter anger over the economy, health care costs and gas prices under President Trump can overcome Steil's fundraising edge and name recognition after eight years in office. Steil, who succeeded Paul Ryan in a district with deep manufacturing losses, has won all four of his races by at least 9 points and entered August with a large cash advantage over Berman.

The race illustrates broader national trends: Trump-aligned PACs have spent tens of millions on House ads since September, with the vast majority going toward defending districts Trump carried in 2024 rather than targeting Democratic-held seats, signaling Republicans are largely on defense this cycle. Democrats hope a strong enough "blue wave" could flip even well-funded, longtime incumbents like Steil, though party officials on both sides say an upset remains a steep climb for Berman.

Democrats are targeting Republican Rep. Bryan Steil in Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, adding it to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "red to blue" program as part of a broader effort to widen the House map ahead of the midterms. Challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate, is leaning on his working-class background and voter frustration over the economy, health care costs and gas prices to make the race competitive in a district Republicans have held for three decades, previously represented by Paul Ryan.

Steil, seeking a fifth term, has outraised and outspent Berman roughly 2-to-1 and enters with a large cash advantage. Trump-aligned groups No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC have poured tens of millions into House races nationally, with the vast majority going to districts Trump won in 2024, underscoring Republicans' largely defensive posture this cycle. Party officials on both sides acknowledge Berman faces long odds against Steil's name recognition, though Democrats hope a large enough anti-Trump wave could still flip the seat.

Democrats have added Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, held by Republican Rep. Bryan Steil since 2019, to the DCCC's "red to blue" target list, boosting resources for challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate. Democrats hope voter anger over Trump's approval rating, healthcare costs, gas prices and tariffs could turn a modest "blue wave" into a bigger upset, though officials in both parties consider it a long shot given Steil's name recognition and fundraising edge.

Steil and allied groups have outspent Berman roughly 2-1, entering August with $6.3 million cash on hand versus about $152,000 for Berman. Nationally, Trump-aligned groups No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC have spent more than $84 million on House ads since September, with 96% concentrated in districts Trump carried in 2024 — a sign Republicans are playing defense but retain a financial cushion. Steil, seen as a possible 2028 Senate contender, has won his prior four races by at least 9 points. The district, anchored by Racine, Kenosha and Janesville, leans Republican but has grown more competitive under redrawn maps.

Democrats are targeting Wisconsin Rep. Bryan Steil's seat as part of a broader push to expand the House battlefield ahead of the midterms. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, held by Republicans for more than three decades, to its "red to blue" program in September, boosting resources for challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate running on a working-class message and voter frustration over the economy, healthcare costs and tariffs.

Steil, a fifth-term incumbent and former aide to Paul Ryan, has significantly outraised Berman and enjoys strong name recognition, and Republicans and Democrats alike say beating him will be difficult despite the district growing more competitive under 2022 redistricting. Trump-aligned PACs have poured tens of millions into House ad spending nationally, overwhelmingly in Trump-won districts, underscoring Republicans' defensive posture this cycle even as they retain a financial edge. The race is seen as a bellwether for how large a Democratic wave might materialize in 2026.