Political science

Ahead of Ohio's Nov. 3 general election, early voting has already topped totals from the 2018 and 2022 midterms, with nearly 1.5 million ballots cast by Oct. 30 — about 907,000 in person and 580,000 by mail. Unlike past cycles, voters have shifted toward in-person early voting over mail-in ballots, which analysts attribute to convenience and distrust of postal delivery timelines. The race includes open contests for every statewide executive office plus U.S. Senate and congressional seats that could shift the balance of power in Washington.

Statewide, unaffiliated voters lead turnout, followed by registered Democrats and Republicans, though the partisan gap is narrow and varies by county. Early in-person voting ends Nov. 1, with all ballots due by 7:30 p.m. on Election Night.

More than 6.4 million Texans cast ballots during early voting, surpassing the state's previous non-presidential-year record of 5.5 million set in 2018. The figures exclude mail-in ballots. Analysts point to the closely watched Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, now the most expensive Senate contest in history with over $560 million in combined ad spending, as the main driver of turnout. The governor's race between Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa, plus growth in suburban counties like Collin County, also contributed. Some experts project total turnout could reach 10 million votes, which would break the state's all-time midterm record.

Election Day voting runs Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA), with Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) and Don Bacon (R-NE), introduced the Ronald Reagan Peace Through Strength Act to block President Trump's deal allowing Russian diesel and oil imports meant to ease U.S. gas prices. The bill would void the Treasury's Russian oil waiver, ban future waivers, and bar funding agreements that violate the 2022 Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act. It also requires intelligence agencies to quickly notify Congress of disruptions to Ukraine's defense support, following Starlink service cutoffs.

Sponsors call the deal a violation of law and a boost to Russia's war funding. The White House defends it as lowering global diesel prices. Analysts note the import volumes are too small to meaningfully affect prices.

Ahead of Ohio's U.S. Senate and governor races, prediction market activity has drawn scrutiny from political scientists and state lawmakers who argue betting on elections undermines public trust in democracy. Ohio State professor Nathaniel Swigger warns that large discrepancies between market-implied odds and public polling in the governor's race between Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy could fuel doubts about vote legitimacy if outcomes diverge from market expectations.

State Sen. Bill DeMora has introduced legislation to ban election wagering through prediction markets, noting most states already prohibit it. Kalshi, which bars politicians from trading and recently added transparency features, remains in a legal dispute with Ohio over state regulatory authority, while its advocacy arm defends prediction markets as more accurate than polling.

Candidates in Rhode Island's 2026 governor's race have spent about $9.9 million combined, making it the cheapest contest in inflation-adjusted terms since 2006 and well below the $14.8–$22.2 million range of the last three cycles. Democratic nominee Helena Foulkes accounts for roughly 69% of that spending at about $6.8 million, followed by Gov. Dan McKee, who lost the September primary to her, at nearly $2.6 million. Independent Ken Block and Republican nominee Aaron Guckian have spent far less. Analysts attribute the drop-off to a thin post-primary field, though outside spending by parties and unions is filling some of the gap and rising media costs continue to push overall campaign costs higher.

Houston voters decide Proposition A, also called the Houston Freedom Act, on November 3. The charter amendment bundles two policies into a single yes-or-no vote: making low-level marijuana possession enforcement HPD's lowest priority, and barring officers from requesting or executing no-knock search warrants, instead requiring they knock, announce and wait at least 15 seconds. Marijuana would remain illegal under state law regardless of the outcome. The no-knock provision follows renewed scrutiny after the 2019 Harding Street raid that killed two homeowners. Supporters cite resource priorities and safety; opponents question necessity and how the rules mesh with state law and neighboring jurisdictions. Voters cannot split their vote between the two provisions.

Iowa Democrats are hoping the 2026 midterms mark a turning point after nearly a decade of Republican dominance in the statehouse and congressional delegation. Political scientists note Iowa has swung both ways in recent cycles, and Cook Political Report now rates the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts as leaning Democratic, with the 2nd District a toss-up. The governor's race between Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn also leans Democratic. Analysts cite frustration with GOP control of state and federal government, a large pool of independent voters, bipartisan messaging from candidates like Sand and Senate hopeful Josh Turek, and softer approval ratings for President Trump as factors fueling Democratic optimism ahead of the Nov. 3 election.