Disinformation

Florida Republicans showed a marked shift in voting behavior ahead of this year's primary election compared to the last open governor's race in 2018. State Division of Elections data show about 422,000 Republicans voted by mail this cycle, down from over 621,000 in 2018, while in-person early voting jumped from roughly 300,000 to nearly 450,000. Democrats' habits changed less, roughly matching 2018 patterns for both mail and early in-person voting.

Analysts point to President Trump's repeated criticism of mail voting as a likely driver of the GOP shift, along with a 2021 Florida law requiring voters to request mail ballots each election cycle rather than every other cycle. Nearly 2 million Floridians had voted early or by mail as of Monday, with Republicans slightly outnumbering Democrats. The contested four-way GOP gubernatorial primary, featuring Byron Donalds, Jay Collins, Paul Renner, and James Fishback, is fueling Republican turnout, while Democrats face a less competitive race led by David Jolly. Experts say the net effect on overall turnout remains uncertain.