SCOTUS & courts
Will Alexandre de Moraes Leave Brazil’s Supreme Court
Alexandre de Moraes is a justice on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Tribunal, known for high-profile rulings against disinformation, coup-related activity, and former president Jair Bolsonaro’s allies. His aggressive judicial stance has made him a polarizing figure in Brazilian politics, drawing praise from supporters of democratic institutions and fierce criticism from the political right. Speculation persists over whether he will resign, be removed, or face international pressure that could force him from the bench before his term naturally ends.
Why Markets Are Watching
Moraes sits at the center of Brazil’s fight over judicial power, free speech, and accountability for the January 2023 uprising. His rulings have triggered diplomatic friction, including sanctions threats from abroad, raising questions about whether external pressure could reshape Brazil’s highest court. His continued presence or departure would signal how resilient Brazilian judicial independence is against political and foreign pressure.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Outcome
This market isolates a single binary question: does Moraes exit the court within the contract’s timeframe, regardless of the reason. It separates speculation about resignation, removal, or health-related departure from the broader political narrative surrounding him. Traders are effectively weighing the durability of his institutional position against mounting political and international pressure campaigns aimed at his removal.
Total Volume
$18.8k
Kalshi $18.8k
Leading Market
Before Jul 1, 2027
Kalshi 25%
Before Jul 1, 2027 Volume
$785.42
Kalshi $785.42
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Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 31.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Before Jul 1, 2027 on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Before Jan 1, 2027 on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 51.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Before Jan 1, 2028 on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | $785.42 | No market | |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | $18,042.09 | No market | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | $0.00 | No market |