Culture war

Florida Republicans swept statewide races on Election Day but by unusually thin 50-51% margins, a marked underperformance given the party's large voter-registration advantage in the state. Byron Donalds won the governor's race, while Ashley Moody and other Cabinet-level Republicans also won narrowly, bucking Democratic gains elsewhere, including in Texas, Ohio, and Georgia. Central Florida counties — Orange, Seminole, and Osceola — swung hard toward Democrats, sweeping out Republican legislative candidates there. The split results raise questions about whether Florida remains durably red or whether narrower margins signal future competitiveness, a dynamic prediction markets tracking 2026 Florida races and national midterm trends will be watching closely.

After Democrat Gina Hinojosa's election as Texas governor, state Rep. Brian Harrison urged Gov. Greg Abbott and fellow Republicans to use their final weeks in control of state government to strip gubernatorial emergency powers before she takes office, warning she would otherwise "inherit nearly all the powers of a dictator." Harrison has pushed similar limits since the COVID-19 pandemic; U.S. Rep. Chip Roy has endorsed the idea. Abbott has not responded publicly, and a special session would require his call. Democrats also won the lieutenant governor and attorney general races, while Republicans kept the state Senate. A similar push in Georgia was rejected by outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp.

Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn is one of 15 candidates running for Tennessee governor, and among the top four per polling, alongside David Hatley, Jerri Green, and Lauren Pinkston. Blackburn's platform centers on economic development, public safety, education, and cutting government spending, including support for a "Tennessee DOGE" effort to reduce the budget, though she has not committed to eliminating the state's grocery sales tax.

She backs expanding school vouchers statewide, leaving data center siting decisions to local governments, and supports capital punishment, including reinstating the electric chair. Blackburn has declined debate invitations from opponents, instead emphasizing door-to-door campaigning. A Senate ethics inquiry into her office was resolved, she said, without findings of misconduct. Democratic rival Jerri Green, by contrast, has centered her campaign on affordability, eliminating the grocery tax, and expanding health care access.

A closely watched race in Montana's 1st congressional district has become a test of whether economic populism or culture-war messaging resonates more with voters. Democrat Sam Forstag, a wildland firefighter and former ACLU lobbyist, has focused his campaign on housing affordability and cost-of-living frustrations, while Republican Aaron Flint, a former conservative radio host, has leaned into attacks portraying Forstag as a "radical" on gender and sexual orientation issues. President Trump campaigned in the state for Flint this week, underscoring the race's national profile.

Polling shows the contest within a few points either way, and the Cook Political Report recently shifted its rating from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican." A heated debate this week saw Flint brand Forstag "Phony Forstag" over his past LGBTQ advocacy work, while Forstag kept his focus on housing costs, private equity's role in the rental market, and wage stagnation. Montana Democrats argue the state's independent streak favors pocketbook messaging over national identity politics, making the race a bellwether for broader midterm strategy debates.

President Trump rallied supporters in Vandalia, Ohio, urging them to "just pretend I'm running" ahead of the midterms, mixing crude attacks on Democrats with warnings that he would be less willing to help Ohio secure federal funds if Democrats win key races. He appeared alongside Senate candidate Jon Husted and gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, both pledging to work closely with him despite his sagging approval. Trump also told the crowd he would push the Rate Payer Protection Act to address data center electricity costs if Husted wins.

Trump's national approval sits around 38%, with Ohio-specific numbers even lower, as majorities disapprove of his tariffs, immigration policies, and support for unregulated data centers—an issue Republicans fear could hurt Husted's race against Sherrod Brown. Ohio gas prices have risen 35% over the past year to over $4 a gallon, and Canadian retaliatory tariffs have hit billions in Ohio exports. Trump also defended his deportation push targeting Haitian immigrants in Springfield, a day after Gov. Mike DeWine, who skipped the rally, attended the funeral of a young Haitian immigrant who died by suicide following an immigration enforcement order. Protesters gathered outside the venue, and outside groups have made Husted-Brown the nation's second-costliest Senate race.

At the Texas GOP's midterm convention in Dallas, Republican candidates and officials credited President Trump's tax policies—including new breaks for tips, overtime and the extension of 2017 tax cuts—for helping working families, while blaming Democrats and the Biden administration for high grocery and gas prices. Attorney General Ken Paxton, the GOP Senate nominee, attacked Democratic opponent James Talarico's tax record, while U.S. House candidates Carlos and Monica De La Cruz emphasized their working-class backgrounds and GOP tax relief. Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick framed the election as a choice between conservatism and "socialism," touting Texas's low-tax economy without addressing rising costs.

Democrats countered throughout the convention, arguing Republicans, tariffs and the Iran conflict have driven up costs for consumers while benefiting corporations and the wealthy. Talarico, Gina Hinojosa and Vikki Goodwin proposed raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy. The clashing narratives over affordability and economic credit are expected to shape Texas's competitive midterm races, particularly in battleground U.S. House districts.

At the Texas Republican convention in Dallas, GOP leaders and candidates leaned on new federal tax breaks — including deductions for tips and overtime and an extension of 2017 tax cuts — as evidence President Trump and the party have helped working families. At the same time, they blamed Democrats and the Biden administration for high grocery and gas prices, largely avoiding discussion of Trump's tariffs and the Iran conflict, which polls show voters associate with rising costs. Attorney General Ken Paxton, the GOP's U.S. Senate nominee, touted his own tax proposals while attacking Democratic opponent James Talarico's tax record. Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick emphasized low taxes and a strong state economy without addressing affordability concerns.

Democrats, including state party chair Kendall Scudder and national committee officials, used the convention to argue Republicans have driven up costs while favoring corporations and the wealthy. The dueling narratives underscore how affordability could shape competitive Texas races this midterm cycle.