Rhode Island Governor Race 2026: Winner Prediction Markets

The three leading candidates for Rhode Island governor — Democrat Helena Foulkes, Republican Aaron Guckian and independent Ken Block — met for a televised debate hosted by 12 News at Rhode Island College, two weeks ahead of the November 3 election. The debate, moderated by Target 12's Tim White and Ted Nesi, was the candidates' last major face-off before voting ends. It followed a 12 News/Emerson College poll showing Foulkes leading with 44% support, Block gaining ground at 35%, and Guckian trailing at 10%, with undecided voters expected to split among the three. Independents Jay Gotra and C Reynolds also appear on the ballot. Early voting began October 14.

Rhode Island Republican gubernatorial candidate Aaron Guckian is calling on independent candidate Ken Block to withdraw from the race, a day after the two candidates and Democrat Helena Foulkes held their first televised debate on NBC 10. Guckian argued Block offered no concrete plans and should "step aside" to let others do "the real work."

Block, who has run for governor twice before, rejected the demand, noting Guckian trails in polling and has limited campaign funds. Block pointed to his own internally commissioned polling showing him beating Foulkes head-to-head, while Foulkes wins comfortably in a three-way race and would defeat Guckian by a wide margin one-on-one. He accused Guckian's campaign of effectively helping Foulkes by splitting the opposition vote.

During Wednesday's debate, Guckian and Block did not clash directly, both criticizing Foulkes' housing plan, opposing truck tolls, and agreeing on transgender sports policy, while differing on ICE operations in the state. Guckian said he would work closely with the Trump administration.

Candidates in Rhode Island's 2026 governor's race have spent about $9.9 million combined, making it the cheapest contest in inflation-adjusted terms since 2006 and well below the $14.8–$22.2 million range of the last three cycles. Democratic nominee Helena Foulkes accounts for roughly 69% of that spending at about $6.8 million, followed by Gov. Dan McKee, who lost the September primary to her, at nearly $2.6 million. Independent Ken Block and Republican nominee Aaron Guckian have spent far less. Analysts attribute the drop-off to a thin post-primary field, though outside spending by parties and unions is filling some of the gap and rising media costs continue to push overall campaign costs higher.

Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee lost Wednesday's Democratic gubernatorial primary to former CVS and Hudson's Bay Company executive Helena Foulkes, who won decisively 62.4% to 37.6%, four years after narrowly beating her in a multi-candidate race. McKee, governor since 2021, had faced sustained criticism over his handling of the Washington Bridge closure, a critical Interstate 195 span shut down in 2023 over safety concerns whose replacement has run behind schedule; McKee said construction would finish by 2028, but Foulkes called the project "a poster child for mismanagement." Foulkes has focused her campaign on affordability, pledging to build 20,000 new homes, enact a tenant's bill of rights, and push for a gubernatorial line-item veto. McKee had attacked her record on opioids during her 25-year CVS career, but Foulkes maintained opioid dispersal fell 40% under her leadership. Foulkes is heavily favored in November's general election in the deeply blue state.

McKee is the first elected governor to lose a primary since Hawaii's Neil Abercrombie in 2014, and the first sitting governor overall not renominated since Kansas's Jeff Colyer in 2018. On the Republican side, party-backed Aaron Guckian held a narrow lead over Elaine Pelino, a Trump-aligned former actress, in a race too close to call. Sen. Jack Reed easily won his Democratic primary and will face Republican Raymond McKay in November.

Rhode Island voters headed to the polls to decide primary contests that will shape the state's general election ballot in November. The marquee race is the Democratic gubernatorial primary, where incumbent Dan McKee faced challenger Helena Foulkes, who had been leading in pre-election polling. Republicans chose between Aaron Guckian and Elaine Pelino for their nomination.

Other significant contests included the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor, where Sabina Matos faced four challengers, and the race to succeed term-limited Attorney General Peter Neronha, with four Democrats competing for the nomination. In Providence, Mayor Brett Smiley faced a primary challenge from state Rep. David Morales, a notable test since no sitting Providence mayor has ever lost a primary; a recent poll suggested a close contest. Pawtucket and Woonsocket also held mayoral primaries, alongside various congressional and General Assembly races. Nearly 49,000 voters had already cast ballots early or by mail ahead of polling day. Primary winners advance to the November 3 general election.

Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee faces a primary rematch against Helena Foulkes, a former CVS Health executive, in the Sept. 9 Democratic primary. Foulkes has outraised McKee and outspent him on advertising, and polling suggests a competitive race four years after McKee narrowly won their first matchup. A loss would make McKee the first sitting Rhode Island governor to lose a primary in more than three decades.

The campaign has been shadowed by the prolonged, over-budget repair of Providence's Washington Bridge, a major artery connecting Rhode Island to Massachusetts and Cape Cod, which McKee partially closed in 2023 and has pledged to finish by 2028. Foulkes has used the bridge saga to question his leadership, while McKee has attacked her CVS tenure, linking her to the opioid crisis, a charge she disputes. Because Rhode Island leans heavily Democratic, the primary winner is considered the strong favorite in the general election.

Rhode Island voters went to the polls Wednesday in primaries for governor and other federal, state and local offices. Gov. Dan McKee, who ascended to office in 2021 and won a full term in 2022, faces a tough Democratic challenge from Helena Buonanno Foulkes, a former CVS executive who finished a close second in the 2022 primary. Foulkes has outraised and outspent McKee and has led him in independent polling throughout the year, though many voters remained undecided heading into the vote. A loss would make McKee the first elected Rhode Island governor to lose renomination since 1994.

The race has centered on McKee's handling of the Washington Bridge closure and reconstruction, now delayed until 2028, and a 2024 investigation finding he improperly intervened in a state contract award, though no laws were found broken. McKee has attacked Foulkes over CVS's alleged role in the opioid crisis. In the Republican primary, party-endorsed Aaron Guckian faces Elaine Pelino. Rhode Island hasn't elected a Republican governor in 20 years.

Republican congressional candidate Vic Mellor held a "Rhode Island First" rally in Cranston, Rhode Island, featuring former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani as headline speaker. The event at the Park Theatre marked Mellor's second such rally this year, following a March gathering at the Crowne Plaza Providence-Warwick that included former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn.

Mellor has framed the rallies as efforts to "motivate the base," pointing to a large share of Republicans and independents who typically don't vote. As with the March event, protesters gathered outside to criticize Mellor, Giuliani, and the Park Theatre for hosting the rally. Attendees described the gathering as a boost of enthusiasm ahead of Rhode Island's September primary election. The rally underscores the stakes in a competitive GOP primary race and signals continued national Republican interest in the state's congressional contest.

Incumbent Democratic Lt. Governor Sabina Matos and Republican challenger John Loughlin met Friday for their first televised debate ahead of Rhode Island's lieutenant governor race, hosted in the WPRI 12 studios in East Providence. The candidates disagreed on most major issues facing the state, including immigration enforcement and cooperation with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, electric rates and energy policy, and grocery store affordability.

A recent University of New Hampshire poll shows the contest is close, with only about four points separating the two candidates. The tight polling and sharp policy contrasts make this race one to watch as it heads toward the general election, with immigration and cost-of-living issues shaping up as central themes for voters.