New Jersey’s 11th District House Race: 2026 Winner
New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, covering suburban Morris, Essex, and Passaic counties, heads to voters in November 2026 to decide its U.S. House representative. The district has leaned Democratic in recent cycles but includes competitive suburban territory that national strategists watch closely. The outcome will hinge on candidate recruitment, turnout patterns, and broader national political winds heading into the midterms.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House majority can come down to a handful of competitive suburban seats like NJ-11. A shift here would signal broader movement among educated, moderate suburban voters who have swung between parties in recent elections. The result could offer an early read on how national issues are playing in affluent, well-educated districts.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a sprawling midterm campaign to a binary: which party’s nominee wins NJ-11. That isolates partisan control from the noise of individual candidate performance, fundraising totals, or ad spending that dominate campaign coverage. Traders are effectively weighing whether historical district lean holds or whether shifting suburban sentiment flips the seat, distilling months of polling and campaign dynamics into a single tradeable proposition.
Related terms
Total Volume
$51.4k
Kalshi $20.5k · Polymarket $30.9k
Leading Market
Analilia Mejia
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 98%
Analilia Mejia Volume
$13.7k
Kalshi $13.6k · Polymarket $99.00
Analilia Mejia 24h Change
+1.30%
Kalshi +1.30% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analilia MejiaDemocratic Party | 99.8¢ | 7.0% | , trade Analilia Mejia on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Analilia Mejia on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| John HathawayRepublican Party | 1.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade John Hathaway on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 2.0¢ | 5% | , trade John Hathaway on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Analilia MejiaDemocratic Party | $13,702.45 | ||
| John HathawayRepublican Party | $37,715.16 |