Maryland Governor Election: Voter Turnout
Maryland voters head to the polls on November 3, 2026, to elect a new governor. The race caps a midterm election cycle and will test how many of the state’s registered voters participate compared to past gubernatorial contests. Turnout figures will be tallied once polls close and official counts are certified.
Why Markets Are Watching
Turnout shapes who actually decides Maryland’s next governor, influencing down-ballot races and the state’s political direction for years. Higher participation can signal broader civic engagement or reaction to national political dynamics, while lower turnout often favors more predictable, established voting blocs. The outcome also offers a data point for assessing midterm enthusiasm heading into 2028.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Turnout
These contracts isolate a single numeric threshold: how many total votes will be cast in the race. Rather than betting on who wins, traders are assessing whether turnout clears specific benchmarks ranging from 1.55 million to 2.45 million votes. That framing turns a civic participation question into a measurable, resolvable outcome tied strictly to raw vote counts rather than candidate performance.
Related terms
Total Volume
$2.3k
Kalshi $858.82 · Polymarket $1.4k
Leading Market
Above 1.7M
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 99%
Above 1.7M Volume
$41.52
Kalshi $1.24 · Polymarket $40.28
Above 1.7M 24h Change
+8.00%
Kalshi +8.00% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.7M | 99.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Above 1.7M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Above 1.7M on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Above 1.55M | — | — | — | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Above 1.55M on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Above 1.85M | — | — | — | 93.0¢ | 5% | , trade Above 1.85M on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Above 2M | 86.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Above 2M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 89.0¢ | 5% | , trade Above 2M on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Above 1.9M | 97.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Above 1.9M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.7M | $41.52 | ||
| Above 1.55M | $0.20 | No market | |
| Above 1.85M | $302.49 | No market | |
| Above 2M | $505.20 | ||
| Above 1.9M | $1.00 | No market |