Massachusetts 9th District House Race 2026
Massachusetts’s 9th Congressional District, covering the South Coast and Cape Cod region, heads to voters in November 2026 to pick its U.S. House representative. The seat has long leaned Democratic, represented by Bill Keating, whose future plans will shape how competitive the race becomes. Candidate filings and primary contests will determine the field heading into the general election.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House could again hinge on a handful of competitive districts, making every seat’s outcome part of the broader national balance of power. Even in a historically safe district, retirements, redistricting, or shifting local dynamics can turn a routine race into a bellwether. The result will factor into how analysts read the national political mood heading into 2026.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
At its core, this market isolates a binary question: will the district’s House seat stay with Democrats or flip to Republicans. Traders are effectively weighing incumbency strength, candidate quality, and regional voting trends rather than district-level policy debates. The contract distills a sprawling campaign into a single partisan-control outcome, offering a real-time read on how competitive the seat truly is relative to its historical lean.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
Massachusetts -
Cape Cod -
Massachusetts's 9th congressional district
Total Volume
$32.3k
Kalshi $1.1k · Polymarket $31.3k
Leading Market
Bill Keating
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 97%
Bill Keating Volume
$6.1k
Kalshi $60.00 · Polymarket $6k
Bill Keating 24h Change
-3.00%
Kalshi -2.10% · Polymarket -3.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill KeatingDemocratic Party | 98.5¢ | 7.0% | , trade Bill Keating on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 98.0¢ | 5% | , trade Bill Keating on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Tyler MacAllisterRepublican Party | 4.3¢ | 7.0% | , trade Tyler MacAllister on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| R. Tyler MacAllisterRepublican Party | — | — | — | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade R. Tyler MacAllister on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill KeatingDemocratic Party | $6,056.19 | ||
| Tyler MacAllisterRepublican Party | $1,001.88 | No market | |
| R. Tyler MacAllisterRepublican Party | $25,291.86 | No market |