Massachusetts 4th District House Race: Who Will Win?
Massachusetts’s 4th Congressional District will hold an election in 2026 to fill its U.S. House seat. The district, located in the southeastern part of the state, has been a Democratic stronghold in recent cycles. Candidates from both major parties are expected to compete, with the primary field still taking shape.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on the cumulative outcome of races like this one, making each district’s result part of a larger national picture. A shift in a historically safe seat would signal broader changes in voter sentiment ahead of the midterms. Local turnout and candidate strength will shape how the district’s politics evolve.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is simply which party, or candidate, will claim the seat once votes are counted. Separate contracts isolate individual contenders, letting traders express views on specific primary or general election matchups rather than just a generic party outcome. This structure captures both the partisan balance of the race and the relative standing of named candidates within it.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States Congress -
Massachusetts -
Jake Auchincloss -
Massachusetts's 4th congressional district
Total Volume
$72.2k
Kalshi $2.7k · Polymarket $69.6k
Leading Market
Jake Auchincloss
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 99%
Jake Auchincloss Volume
$39.6k
Kalshi $589.00 · Polymarket $39k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake AuchinclossDemocratic Party | 98.5¢ | 7.0% | , trade Jake Auchincloss on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Jake Auchincloss on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Tom StalcupRepublican Party | 2.5¢ | 7.0% | , trade Tom Stalcup on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Thomas StalcupRepublican Party | — | — | — | 3.0¢ | 5% | , trade Thomas Stalcup on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake AuchinclossDemocratic Party | $39,609.04 | ||
| Tom StalcupRepublican Party | $2,072.65 | No market | |
| Thomas StalcupRepublican Party | $30,563.42 | No market |