Indiana’s 3rd Congressional District House Race 2026
Indiana’s 3rd Congressional District, anchored by Fort Wayne and the state’s northeastern counties, holds its general election for U.S. House on November 3, 2026. The seat has long leaned Republican, drawing a mix of suburban and rural voters across a district that blends manufacturing towns with agricultural communities. The race will determine who represents the district in the next Congress.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often hinges on a handful of competitive districts, and primary results or redistricting shifts can turn once-safe seats into closer contests. A strong Republican showing here would reinforce the party’s grip on northeastern Indiana, while any unexpected tightening could signal broader national trends ahead of the midterms. Local turnout and candidate strength matter well beyond the district itself.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate general election to a binary question: will the Republican or Democratic nominee win IN-03? Traders are effectively weighing historical partisan lean against any signs of a competitive shift, using the district as a proxy for broader midterm sentiment. It isolates party outcome rather than margin, turning a local race into a single tradeable signal of national mood.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States Congress -
Redistricting -
Indiana -
Fort Wayne, Indiana -
Marlin Stutzman -
Kelly Thompson
Total Volume
$21.7k
Kalshi $1.6k · Polymarket $20.1k
Leading Market
Marlin Stutzman
Kalshi 97%
Marlin Stutzman Volume
$661.40
Kalshi $661.40
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlin StutzmanRepublican Party | 97.1¢ | 7.0% | , trade Marlin Stutzman on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Marlin A. StutzmanRepublican Party | — | — | — | 96.0¢ | 5% | , trade Marlin A. Stutzman on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Kelly ThompsonDemocratic Party | 3.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade Kelly Thompson on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 5.0¢ | 5% | , trade Kelly Thompson on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlin StutzmanRepublican Party | $661.40 | No market | |
| Marlin A. StutzmanRepublican Party | $16,408.14 | No market | |
| Kelly ThompsonDemocratic Party | $4,641.11 |