Florida’s 2nd Congressional District House Race 2026

Republican Austin Rogers and Democrat Amanda Green, competing to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn in Florida's 2nd Congressional District, will hold their only Leon County forum Oct. 27 at a Tallahassee business luncheon. Rogers, a former aide to Sen. Rick Scott, has Trump's endorsement, broad business backing and a large fundraising lead. Green, a development-sector operations director, has endorsements from former Rep. Allen Boyd, Blue Dog PAC and the Alliance for Retired Americans, and is courting farmers and independents frustrated with trade policy and rising costs. The GOP has held the seat 14 of the last 16 years; forecasters including Decision Desk HQ and Cook Political Report favor Rogers heavily.

A Florida appeals court sharply criticized a Tallahassee grand jury's report on the Hope Florida charity, ordering it expunged and finding that jurors improperly accused individuals of criminal conduct while violating confidentiality rules. Gov. Ron DeSantis responded by calling for prosecutions of whoever leaked the report, while Democrats continue pressing for investigations into his administration. The ruling has elevated Hope Florida as a campaign issue ahead of next month's election, with gubernatorial candidates Byron Donalds (R) and David Jolly (D) both campaigning amid Hurricane Isaias recovery efforts that have left thousands without power.

Separately, Florida's attorney general race is drawing national attention after Democratic candidate José Javier Rodríguez received a $5 million injection from a national party group, the largest such donation to a statewide Florida candidate this cycle, aimed at unseating appointed Republican AG James Uthmeier. Uthmeier is also pushing for added restrictions on Meta after rejecting a multi-state settlement. Meanwhile, documents tied to a 2021 "ghost candidate" scandal are resurfacing in Florida Power & Light's merger talks with Dominion Energy.

With about four weeks until Election Day, Florida's 13th congressional district remains one of the cycle's most closely watched races. Recent polling from Fox News and Inside Elections shows the seat shifting from "likely Republican" to "leaning Republican," signaling a tighter contest than previously expected.

Republican incumbent Anna Paulina Luna, who has held the seat since 2022, is campaigning on an anti-corruption record, citing her push to release Epstein-related files and efforts to ban congressional insider trading. Democratic challenger Leela Gray, a retired brigadier general, argues Luna's trading-ban proposal is incomplete and is calling for a broader ban on stock trading, prediction-market betting, and donor-linked investments across all three branches of government. Gray has accused Luna of conflicts of interest tied to a donor's oil company, while Luna has countered that Gray has downplayed her own financial ties to pharmaceutical and banking interests. Both campaigns deny the other's claims as voters prepare to decide the race.

With under two weeks until Election Day, Florida has drawn heavy national attention, with surrogates from both parties campaigning across the state. President Trump is set to rally with Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds, whose campaign faced scrutiny after briefly removing Trump references from its website, which Donalds called routine updates. Vice President JD Vance has framed the election as a choice between continuing current GOP policies or returning to Biden-era priorities. Democrats, hoping to flip seats, deployed Bernie Sanders for Senate candidate Angie Nixon against incumbent Ashley Moody, while Bill Clinton campaigned with gubernatorial candidate David Jolly. Competitive U.S. House races in Florida's 13th and 14th districts are also drawing close attention.

Florida's redrawn 14th congressional district has emerged as a competitive race between longtime Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor, who has held the seat since 2007, and Republican challenger Mike Beltran, a former state lawmaker. Redistricting shifted the seat from leaning Democratic to leaning Republican, and it is now rated a toss-up, making it a top Republican target in the fight for House control this November.

Beltran, previously known as "MAGA Mike" during the primary, says he is running on cutting government spending, balancing the federal budget, and lowering the cost of living, while criticizing Castor's tax record. Castor argues she is best positioned to protect constituents' health care and pocketbooks against what she calls extreme Washington politics. The two are scheduled to debate next month via radio and a candidate forum, with Beltran pushing for an additional televised debate. The race is being closely watched as a bellwether for Democrats' effort to retake the House.

With one week until Election Day, Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly are campaigning across Florida to close out the governor's race. Donalds, touring by bus, cast Jolly as inconsistent and pledged cost-cutting measures and government transparency. Jolly, framing his campaign around change, argued a Democratic win would defy Florida's deep-red lean. A new University of North Florida poll shows a tightening race, with Donalds and Jolly close and a small share of voters undecided. Transgender athletes in women's sports has also emerged as a flashpoint, with Donalds' campaign highlighting past remarks by Jolly on the issue and attacking his position, while Jolly has called for leaving related decisions to courts and sports leagues.

Democratic gubernatorial nominee David Jolly traveled to northern Virginia's "Data Center Alley" this week, using the region's dense cluster of hyperscale data centers to argue against unchecked data center expansion in Florida. The former Republican congressman has made the issue central to his bid to become Florida's first Democratic governor in more than three decades, with the race remaining tightly contested roughly seven weeks before the midterms.

Jolly described visiting a family living near the facilities as a "sensory experience," citing noise and visual obstruction caused by the massive structures. His trip is meant to show Florida voters a preview of what could come if hyperscale data center development continues unchecked, tying the issue to broader national anxieties over artificial intelligence's infrastructure demands.

The visit underscores how data centers, once a niche zoning issue, have become a wedge topic in state political campaigns, reflecting growing public concern over the environmental and community impacts of AI-driven infrastructure buildouts nationwide.

With the midterm election days away, Florida's U.S. Senate race pits Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed to the seat by Gov. Ron DeSantis, against Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, who upset Alex Vindman in the August primary. Moody is campaigning on her record as a former attorney general and prosecutor, emphasizing law enforcement, individual freedoms, and Florida's conservative policies while casting Nixon as a socialist. Nixon is focused on affordability, government corruption, and working families, accusing Moody of using office for personal enrichment. Both candidates reject the other's characterizations as the race heads into its final week before November's vote.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has named 17 Florida legislative races as top targets ahead of the November election, including three in the Tampa Bay area, as Democrats try to build on recent special election wins and chip away at the Republican supermajority in Tallahassee. State Sen. Brian Nathan, who flipped Senate District 14 in a March special election, will again face former Republican Rep. Josie Tomkow. Other contested races include Luis Salazar challenging Dan Weldon for a Hillsborough House seat and Lindsay Polega-Quigley defending a Pinellas district against Melissa Rutland, with both Democrats emphasizing affordability, housing, and insurance costs.

Republicans, who hold a roughly 1.5 million voter registration edge statewide, say they remain unified after two contentious legislative sessions and are confident they will keep control. Analysts note that while Democrats are unlikely to break the GOP supermajority this cycle, they could erode Republican margins and voter discipline, with a fuller challenge to Republican dominance likely requiring multiple additional election cycles through 2028.