Swing (politics)

Paul Carver, a Republican running for a competitive Arizona House seat in a swing district, is facing renewed scrutiny over his ties to far-right paramilitary groups and his presence in Washington, D.C. during the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot. Carver, board president of the Deer Valley Unified School District, has deleted Facebook posts appearing to show him at the Capitol that day, and Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes testified he had dinner with Carver the night before the attack. Reporting also links Carver to leadership of the Arizona chapter of the Three Percenters, a paramilitary group, from 2021 to 2022.

Democratic incumbent Stephanie Simacek, Carver's opponent, has criticized his extremist ties as disqualifying for a district she says wants stability. Despite the controversy, Republican House Speaker Steve Montenegro's leadership PAC has spent heavily to support Carver's campaign. Carver has declined interview requests. The race is seen as pivotal to control of the Arizona House.

Rebecca Cooke defeated Emily Berge in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary, setting up a third consecutive matchup against Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden. Cooke, who grew up on a dairy farm near Eau Claire and works as a waitress and small-business owner, narrowly lost to Van Orden in 2024 by less than three percentage points after also losing the 2022 primary. She entered this year's primary with backing from the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program, while Berge campaigned as a local alternative skeptical of national party influence. Cooke holds a fundraising edge, having raised about $8.6 million to Van Orden's $7.5 million, though he retains nearly $3 million more cash on hand.

The western Wisconsin district, covering Eau Claire and La Crosse, has trended Republican in presidential races but is rated a toss-up, making it Democrats' top target in the state as they seek to retake the House majority in November. Cooke is campaigning on rural frustration over Trump administration policies, including tariffs that have hurt farm exports, cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, and rising fuel and fertilizer costs tied to the Iran conflict, while Van Orden defends his record backing Trump's agenda. The race is part of a broader Wisconsin battleground that includes the 1st District, where nurse Mitchell Berman will challenge GOP Rep. Bryan Steil, and the solid-red 7th District, won by Sean Duffy's son-in-law Michael Alfonso in the Republican primary.