Campaign finance in the United States

Polls show Texas Gov. Greg Abbott facing an unusually close re-election fight against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, a sharp contrast to his more than 10-point win four years ago. Most surveys give Abbott a small single-digit lead, including a Fox News poll showing him roughly five points ahead, but a New York Times/Siena poll found Hinojosa leading 49% to 46%. Analysts attribute the tightening largely to dissatisfaction with President Trump, whose national approval has slipped, along with concerns over cost of living and gas prices eroding his support in Texas.

National Democrats are now investing in the race: Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and the Democratic Governors Association each pledged $1 million to Hinojosa's campaign, which had lagged in fundraising compared with Abbott's $18 million war chest and Senate candidate James Talarico's $70 million haul. Talarico also leads Republican Ken Paxton in several Senate polls. Democrats haven't won statewide in Texas since 1994, and turnout remains the key variable: strong Republican mobilization likely secures Abbott's win, but low turnout could open the door for an upset.

Florida GOP Rep. Cory Mills is running for reelection while under House Ethics Committee investigation over allegations he assaulted a former girlfriend and violated campaign finance laws. Mills denies wrongdoing. Though he touts a Trump endorsement from February, Trump did not include Mills in a recent wave of primary endorsements, and Gov. Ron DeSantis has said he does not support Mills.

Mills faces GOP challengers Ryan Elijah, who has been endorsed by Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos, along with Sarah Ulrich and Michael Don Johnson. His central Florida 7th District seat, which he has won twice, was left unchanged in the state's May redistricting.

The controversy has shifted the race's outlook: Cook Political Report moved the district from "solid red" to "likely red." Democrats see an opening, backing Navy veteran Bale Dalton through the DCCC, while former Rep. Alan Grayson is also running. Voter sentiment in the district is split over whether Mills' record outweighs his perceived effectiveness.

Florida Rep. Cory Mills lost his Republican primary in the state's 7th Congressional District to former TV anchor Ryan Elijah, ending his bid for a third term. Mills's campaign was marked by allegations of sexual misconduct, a court injunction from a former girlfriend, a House Ethics Committee investigation into misconduct and campaign finance claims, and questions about his military record. President Trump had given Mills his "Complete and Total Endorsement" in February, but later distanced himself by excluding Mills from a round of congressional endorsements. Florida incumbents Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos, along with Gov. Ron DeSantis, backed Elijah instead.

Elijah will face Democrat and military veteran Bale Dalton in November. The district is expected to remain Republican-leaning under Florida's newly redrawn congressional map, though analysts note the race could factor into broader midterm dynamics as Democrats are currently favored to retake the House majority.